Newcastle vs Manchester City Prediction: Premier League Match Preview

Can Pep Guardiola’s side cope without Rodri? We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League clash with our Newcastle vs Manchester City prediction and preview.

Newcastle vs Man City Stats: The Key Insights

• The Opta supercomputer sees Manchester City coming out on top, with the visitors winning 56% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
• City have won more games (31) and scored more goals (101) against Newcastle United than they have versus any other Premier League opponent.
• Erling Haaland could become only the second player ever to score in each of a team’s first six matches of a Premier League season.

Manchester City avoided an early blow to their Premier League title hopes thanks to the late drama against Arsenal, yet their 2-2 draw came at a significant cost ahead of Saturday’s visit to Newcastle United.

Ever-reliant midfielder Rodri is expected to be out for the rest of the season, having reportedly ruptured his ACL in an innocuous incident at a corner. Since arriving from Atlético Madrid in 2019, the Spanish midfielder’s influence on Pep Guardiola’s side has been incredible, with City having lost just 11% of their games with him compared to 24% without.

Guardiola’s four-in-a-row title winners lost four of the five matches he missed last campaign, too, compared to losing just once in all competitions with him in the side (excluding penalty shootouts).

Midfield replacement Mateo Kovacic provided ample cover in the Arsenal draw, however, as John Stones’ late, late show cancelled out Gabriel Magalhāes’ header that had sent the visitors ahead after Riccardo Calafiori’s left-foot stunner.

Erling Haaland had earlier nudged City in front with his 100th goal in just 105 appearances for the club, as the talisman continued his ridiculous start to this season. He has scored 10 goals in five league outings this term, the earliest a player has ever reached double figures from the start of a campaign in the competition.

The Norwegian’s next aim will be becoming only the second player ever to score in each of a team’s first six matches of a Premier League season, after Sergio Agüero did so for the Citizens in 2019-20.

Dan Burn and Fabian Schär may already be having nightmares about facing Haaland at St. James’ Park in Saturday’s early kick-off, though Rodri’s injury may offer Bruno Guimarāes and Joelinton a chance to dominate the midfield battle for Eddie Howe’s hosts.

Howe will know this is a big opportunity for his side to bounce back at their fortress, too, having suffered a disappointing 3-1 away defeat to Fulham last time out. Indeed, Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League home games, winning six and drawing four.

The Magpies have also scored in each of their last 21 top-flight home games, since a 0-0 draw with Leicester City in May 2023, the longest ongoing home scoring streak of any side in the competition.

Central to continuing that scoring run will be Harvey Barnes, who netted almost immediately after the interval at Craven Cottage on Saturday. The winger has been involved in a goal in each of his last four Premier League games for Newcastle (3 goals, 1 assist), his joint-best run in the top flight.

Overall, Barnes averages a goal or assist every 87 minutes for Newcastle (8 goals, 4 assists in 1,042 minutes), the best rate of any player at the club (min. 1,000 mins), but carrying on that streak against the Premier League leaders will prove a stern task.

City are unbeaten in their last 28 league games (W23 D5), with 24 of these matches coming in 2024. Saturday could move them closer to another landmark as they set their sights on Chelsea’s 26-match record in 2008 for the longest run without a Premier League defeat from the start of a calendar year.

Newcastle vs Man City Head-to-Head

There may be little room for optimism among the home supporters given Newcastle have won just one of their last 33 Premier League games against Man City (D5 L27), a 2-1 home win in January 2019 under Rafael Benítez.

In fact, City have won more games (31), more away games (12) and scored more goals (101) against Newcastle than they have versus any other opponent in Premier League history.

Oscar Bobb scored a last-gasp winner in this exact fixture last term as City snatched a 3-2 victory. Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon had cancelled out Bernardo Silva’s opener, before Kevin De Bruyne levelled prior to Bobb’s 91st-minute heroics.

With Silva’s first-half finish last term, City have now scored in each of their last 31 Premier League games against Newcastle, the longest scoring streak one team has against another in the competition’s history.

Newcastle vs Man City Prediction

The Opta supercomputer thinks this will most likely be a Man City win, with the visitors triumphing in 56% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Newcastle managed a victory in 21.6%, with the draw considered more likely, occurring in 22.4% of data-led simulations.

Saturday’s 2-2 draw with Arsenal kept City as Opta’s Premier League favourites, with their 80.2% chance of winning the title ahead of the Gunners’ 13.8%. Newcastle, meanwhile, finish the season in sixth most often, doing so in 18.4% of the end-of-season predictions.

Newcastle vs Man City Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.

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