NFL Predictions: Will Teams Will Win in Week 4?

With the help of our supercomputer, we’re revealing all our NFL predictions for every game each week of the 2024 season.

Our projection model will be with us every step of the way this season, providing us with data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.

Of course, the Kansas City Chiefs are among the best bets when it comes to the title race, as Patrick Mahomes and company are chasing a third consecutive Super Bowl victory and their fourth in six seasons.

The Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets and Houston Texans are some of those NFL teams hoping to challenge the Chiefs in the AFC, riding the play of their Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers and C.J. Stroud.

Having frequently come so close to a title in recent years, the San Francisco 49ers entered the season as the favorites to come out of the NFC. Can they overcome their injuries? The Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings, and Philadelphia Eagles are potential challengers in what could be a wide-open conference race.

Now, all of that is a little far in the future to be given much consideration yet, but our AI-powered supercomputer is continuing to make predictions for every game this season.

Read on as Opta Analyst provides its NFL predictions for Week 4, and be sure to check back here ahead of every week for the latest projections.

This week begins with a key NFC East matchup on Thursday Night Football, and it ends wit two Monday Night Football games. For those games and every touchdown in between, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our model and come up with our predictions.

Each week throughout the 2024 NFL season, the supercomputer has something to say about every game. No matter if it’s a headliner or a game we may all be a bit less excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks, boldly dropping predictions for each.

This week it has the Malik Willis-led Packers besting Sam Darnold and the Vikings, the Saints struggles continuing with a defeat to the division-rival Falcons, and the Lions handing the Seahawks their first loss of the season.

Keep in mind that these percentages move throughout the week as player news shakes things up (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on our season-long predictions page.

Thursday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys 60.7% at New York Giants 39.3%

The Cowboys have won six straight games against the Giants, their longest active win streak versus any opponent. Dallas has also won 13 of the last 14 games against New York, tied for its most wins over a 14-game span against a single team in franchise history.

Sunday’s Schedule

New Orleans Saints 45.8% at Atlanta Falcons 54.2%

Kirk Cousins has thrown a touchdown pass in his last 18 starts, the longest active streak of any quarterback who’s played this season. Cousins’ teams have a 10-8 record during this streak which improves to 6-3 in games that he doesn’t throw an interception

Cincinnati Bengals 60.2% at Carolina Panthers 39.8%

Joe Burrow is the second quarterback in the Super Bowl era to throw at least five touchdowns and no interceptions in the first three weeks of a season yet be 0-3. The other was Kerry Collins for the Raiders in 2005 (six TDs).

Los Angeles Rams 39.2% at Chicago Bears 60.8%

Rome Odunze is the first Bears rookie receiver with 100 or more yards and a touchdown in a game since Week 10 of 2018 (Anthony Miller) and his touchdown was the first that a Bears rookie has caught from another rookie since Week 14 of 2017 (Mitch Trubisky to Adam Shaheen).

Minnesota Vikings 42.4% at Green Bay Packers 57.6%

Through three games this season, Green Bay is leading the NFL with seven rushing plays of at least 20 yards. Since the start of last season, Minnesota has allowed only three rushing plays of at least 20 yards, the fewest in the NFL by three such plays.

Jacksonville Jaguars 29.5% at Houston Texans 70.5%

The Texans are 6-1 and have won six consecutive games following a loss under DeMeco Ryans. Houston boasts a +6-turnover differential in those contests compared to +1 in all other games since 2023.

Pittsburgh Steelers 55.1% at Indianapolis Colts 44.9%

The Steelers are 8-1 in their last nine matchups against the Colts, including a 4-1 mark in Indianapolis. The eight wins are Pittsburgh’s most victories against a non-division opponent since the start of the 2011 season.

Denver Broncos 26.9% at New York Jets 73.1%

The Jets lead the NFL in third-down conversion rate (56.8%) entering Week 4 after ranking last in the NFL in 2023 (26.0%). The plus-30.8 increase in third-down percentage would be the largest from one season to the next by any team over the last 50 years.

Philadelphia Eagles 55.0% at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45.0%

Saquon Barkley is one of three Eagles over the last 75 years with at least 300 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns over the team’s first three games of a season (LeSean McCoy in 2011, Wilbert Montgomery in 1980).

Washington Commanders 37.8% at Arizona Cardinals 62.2%

Kyler Murray (99 pass TDs) is two passing touchdowns away from passing Kurt Warner (100) for fifth on the Cardinals’ all-time pass TD leaderboard. Murray has thrown a TD pass in 10 consecutive games dating back to last season, tied for the fifth-longest active streak in the NFL.

New England Patriots 19.9% at San Francisco 49ers 80.1%

Brock Purdy leads the NFL in passing EVE, which measures yards gained or lost through the air compared to the expected amount, and the 49ers lead the all-time series against the Patriots with a record of 9-5. That’s the best all-time record by any team against the Patriots.

Kansas City Chiefs 70.3% at Los Angeles Chargers 29.7%

Kansas City has won 10 consecutive road matchups against the Chargers, all coming during Andy Reid’s tenure. With another victory on Sunday, the Chiefs would become the fourth team in NFL history to win 11 straight road games versus any single opponent.

Cleveland Browns 45.4% at Las Vegas Raiders 54.6%

The Raiders have won the last four meetings with the Browns dating to a 23-13 loss at Cleveland in 2014, their second-longest active win streak against any opponent (eight straight vs. Denver). Eleven of the last 12 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less.

Sunday Night Football

Buffalo Bills 42.1% at Baltimore Ravens 57.9%

The Bills pace the NFL in EVE, which measures yards gained or lost compared to the expected amount on a given play. But they’ll have their hands full with Lamar Jackson, who leads all QBs with 254 rushing yards this season – the most rush yards by any QB through three games of a season in the Super Bowl era (surpassing his own mark set in 2021, 251).

Monday Night Football

Tennessee Titans 48.6% at Miami Dolphins 51.4%

With 30 rushing and 28 receiving yards last week, De’Von Achane became the third Dolphins running back with 150+ rushing and 150+ receiving yards in the team’s first three games of a season, joining Jim Kiick (1969) and Ronnie Brown (2007).

Seattle Seahawks 35.4% at Detroit Lions 64.6%

The Lions have not allowed a team to reach 100 rushing yards in seven consecutive games dating back to last season. They have posted only one longer streak since the merger (1970), which was 11 straight in 2014.

If fantasy football is more your thing, check out our weekly fantasy projections and rankings, then use our sit/start comparison tool to help with lineup decisions.

We’ll be back next week, when some of you may be interested in the clash between the Steelers and Cowboys or the Texans against the Bills.

The supercomputer won’t judge. It only predicts.

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. Be sure to check out our MLB, NBA, NFL and college football coverage. And follow us on X and Instagram for more!