Jets vs. 49ers Predictions | Opta Analyst

After watching every other team open the season, Aaron Rodgers and the Jets and the runner-up 49ers finally get the chance to put a long offseason behind them. We reveal our Jets vs. 49ers predictions, including win probability and player projections.

There’s a general feeling that the team and fanbase that must endure the longest offseason is that of the franchise that loses the Super Bowl.

Coming up just short of winning it all and stuck spending the entire summer wondering what could’ve been. Yes, it’s been a brutal hangover for the fans of the San Francisco 49ers.

To that, Jets fans say, hold my beer.

Sure, the NFC champions came within seconds of beating Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in regulation in last February’s Super Bowl only to lose in the final seconds of overtime after holding a lead in the extra period.

But, the Jets, they’re, well, the Jets (shrug, shrug).

It’s been 211 days since the Lombardi Trophy slipped through the 49ers’ fingers.

It’s been 364 days since the New York Jets’ season slipped away and their Super Bowl aspirations faded mere minutes into the 2023 season.

So, after watching every other team open their 2024 NFL seasons, the Jets and 49ers will finally get up for the chance to put a long offseason behind them on Monday Night Football on ABC/ESPN from Levi’s Stadium.

It hardly bears repeating seeing as it’s been nearly a year now, but Jets fans watched a season with championship aspirations vanish in a blink with Aaron Rodgers rupturing his left Achilles tendon shortly after the opening kickoff.

Prior to the start of the 2023 regular season, our prediction model pegged the Jets to finish with 8.4 wins and in third place in the AFC East. We also gave them a 36.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 3.1% chance of reaching the Super Bowl.

As you know by now, the Jets didn’t reach the Super Bowl, or the playoffs for that matter, extending their consecutive season streak of missing the postseason to 13 – the longest active playoff drought in the NFL.

Despite being without the services of Rodgers for all but three offensive plays of the 2023 season, the Jets still managed to grind out a 7-10 record.

Given that they still put up seven wins without a serviceable quarterback, our supercomputer has figured they must be a playoff contender seeing as Rodgers has recovered.

We’ve calculated their chances of making the playoffs at 59.5%, their win total at 9.3 and likelihood of playing for the Lombardi Trophy this upcoming February in New Orleans at 7.8%.

We’re much higher on the outlook of the 49ers.

In fact, they’re the best bets as the top NFL pick in several categories.

• Probability of making the playoffs? 87.7% – the highest among all teams.
• Likelihood of playing in the conference championship? 46.8% – the highest among all teams.
• Chance of reaching the Super Bowl? 32.1% – the highest among all teams.
• Possibility of winning it all? 22.3% – the highest among all teams.

We also predict the 49ers will come away victorious in this matchup, as do the sportsbooks and NFL betting markets.

This is also the second-ranked game on the NFL Week 1 slate behind only the Ravens-Chiefs opener on Thursday night, per SmartRatings. The excitement model is powered by complex algorithms that are predicated upon six primary variables: pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz.

Led by Brock Purdy at quarterback, 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey at running back, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel at receiver and George Kittle at tight end, the 49ers were a juggernaut offensively in 2023, compiling an NFL-best 1.6 EVE.

Like San Francisco, New York also features a strong lineup of offensive playmakers with Rodgers and running back Breece Hall in the backfield and Garrett Wilson and new Jet Mike Williams at receivers.

The one spot where the Jets were lacking last season was the position that is widely considered the most important in any sport.

Following Rodgers’ injury, New York shuffled through a revolving door of quarterbacks with Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle all lining up under center at some point.

Again, Jets fans have to wonder what could’ve been if they had an above-average QB.

Instead, their offensive EVE of minus-1.0 beat out only the two-win Carolina Panthers at minus-1.2 for the worst in the NFL, and they brought up the rear in many of our other advanced offensive metrics.

(Jets fans may want to avert their eyes and just gloss right over the following graphic to avoid any PTSD from the 2023 season.)

Again, the Jets were a quarterback away from having a legitimate offense.

Given their offensive limitations, it’s actually a minor miracle they finished with seven wins. They can thank their defense for that. (More on that later.) So now it’s once again time to see what New York can do with Rodgers having the keys to the offense.

First thing the Jets must do to have a successful season is to keep the former Green Bay Packers superstar upright.

New York’s Key: Protect Rodgers

Rodgers’ season ending because of a sack may have been a sign of things to come for New York in 2023.

By season’s end, Jets quarterbacks were sacked a grand total of 64 times – the second most in franchise history. The only time the team surrendered more sacks was in 1987 – a season in which replacement players were used due to a players’ strike.

Jets fans may argue that last year’s parade of QBs behind Rodgers were borderline replacement players, but much of the offensive ineptitude stemmed from a shoddy offensive line resulting in 9.1% of all pass plays ending with a sack – the NFL’s fourth-worst rate.

To make sure the 41-year-old Rodgers won’t be running for his life, one of the Jets’ primary objectives this past offseason was bolstering the inferior line.

Back at the start of the 2024 League Year in March, they traded for Baltimore Ravens tackle Morgan Moses and two days later signed eight-time Pro Bowl tackle Tyron Smith from the Dallas Cowboys. Then in April’s draft, they added another tackle, selecting Olu Fashanu with the 11th pick.

Smith and Moses are slated to start and should provide an upgrade over 2023 starters Mekhi Becton and Max Mitchell.

In 2023, Becton recorded an adjusted sack-allowed percentage of 4.1 – the seventh worst among the 33 left tackles with a minimum of 200 plays in pass protection. Smith, meanwhile, had the sixth-best adjusted sack-allowed percentage at 1.1. The NFL average among all left tackles in 2023 was 2.3%.

Mitchell, who appeared in 14 games and started seven for the Jets in 2023, had the worst knockdown-allowed percentage at 5.0, while his pressure-allowed rate of 12.2 was 10th worst among the 36 right tackles with a minimum of 175 plays in pass protection. Moses compiled a pressure-allowed rate of 10.5 – a tad better than the NFL average for all right tackles in 2023 at 10.8%.

Jets Player Projections

• Aaron Rodgers: 23.8 of 36.6 for 270.1 yards with 1.4 TDs and 0.6 INTs
• Breece Hall: 13.9 rushes for 80.4 yards with 0.4 touchdowns; 5.5 receptions for 53.9 yards
• Garrett Wilson: 5.6 receptions for 64.4 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
• Mike Williams: 2.7 receptions, 33.1 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
• Tyler Conklin: 3.7 receptions for 45.7 yards with 0.2 touchdowns

New York’s new tackles won’t get to ease into their new surroundings, though, as they face a pair of formidable pass rushers.

It’s cruel fate that one of those edge rushers derailed the Jets’ 2023 season.

It was Leonard Floyd’s sack on New York’s first possession of the 2023 season that injured Rodgers, and he’ll again be lined up across the four-time league MVP in Week 1 after signing with the 49ers in the offseason.

The ex-Bears, Rams and Bills defensive end’s sack of Rodgers was his first of 10.5 on the season – the same number of sacks that San Francisco’s Nick Bosa amassed in 2023.

Although Bosa’s 2023 sack total was eight fewer than his NFL-leading 18.5 sacks from his 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year season, he still graded out as one of the league’s top edge rushers using our advanced metrics.

The four-time Pro Bowler will be a handful for whomever he lines up against, and the Jets will also have to pay close attention to Floyd’s whereabouts.

Floyd ranked fifth in adjusted sack rate at 5.6 in 2023, and his pressure rate of 17.1 was better than the NFL average among all edge rushers of 15.3%.

Jets fans, however, probably feel like those numbers seem a bit low. They have reason to feel that way because Floyd pretty much lived in New York’s backfield in last season’s two matchups. In those games, he racked up 4.0 sacks and five QB knockdowns with a pressure rate of 45.8 and an adjusted sack rate of 29.2.

In his career, Floyd has sacked Rodgers 10 times – the third most by any defender on the future Hall of Famer.

Smith and Moses will have their hands full, but they don’t have to fend off Bosa and Floyd forever. Rodgers gets the ball out of his hand quickly, so ideally he’ll be able to avoid the pressure from the Niners. His release time of 2.54 seconds in 2022 was the fifth fastest among the 33 quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts

If under duress, Rodgers also has at his disposal two of the players with the surest hands in the NFL who he can dump it off to in Hall and tight end Tyler Conklin.

Rodgers is surrounded by weapons and doesn’t have to do it all himself, but to give the Jets a fighting chance this season, he has to stay healthy. No offense to backup Tyrod Taylor, but if he ends up entering the opener for anything other than the victory formation that would be a nightmare for Jets fans.

San Francisco’s Key: Find the Holes

In the final days leading up to the start of the season, the 49ers were able to finalize deals with their two holdouts – one of the most explosive pass catchers in the NFL in Aiyuk and arguably the league’s best left tackle in Trent Williams.

Heading into the weekend, the Jets still hadn’t worked out a deal with their hold out – one of the league’s top pass rushers in Haason Reddick.

Advantage, 49ers.

It went down to the wire, but the 49ers worked out deals with Aiyuk and Williams and both are expected to play in the opener. It’s possible neither is fully up to speed after sitting out training camp and the preseason games, but even if they’re both a little rusty, having them on the field bodes well for San Francisco.

Aiyuk led the 49ers with 75 receptions and 1,342 yards last season and his average of 17.9 yards per catch trailed only Pittsburgh Steelers receiver George Pickens’ 18.1 for the highest in the NFL. One of the most dynamic receivers in the league, he’s capable of producing a highlight reel-play every time he catches the ball.

Aiyuk and Purdy have developed quite a chemistry since the former Mr. Irrelevant took over the reins at QB in San Francisco, with Purdy registering a passer rating of 120.5 on his 136 passes thrown to Aiyuk in the past two seasons. That’s the highest QB rating among the 43 QB-pass-catcher combos with a minimum of 125 targets since 2022.

Having Aiyuk back in the fold is certainly good news for Purdy and the 49ers, though they won’t have first-round pick Ricky Pearsall after he was shot in the chest during an attempted robbery.

49ers Player Projections

• Brock Purdy: 20.9 of 31.8 for 258.6 yards with 1.3 TDs and 0.7 INTs
• Christian McCaffrey: 19.9 rushes for 101.7 yards with 0.9 touchdowns; 4.6 receptions for 34.0 yards
• Brandon Aiyuk: 4.0 receptions for 70.8 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
• Deebo Samuel Sr.: 4.3 receptions for 52.8 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
• George Kittle: 3.8 receptions for 55.4 yards with 0.3 touchdowns

San Francisco will likely need rest of its pass catchers to bring their top games against one of the NFL’s best cornerback corps.

The Jets defense ranked second in successful play percentage at 33.3, allowed a league-low 4.57 yards per play and only the Super Bowl champion Chiefs permitted fewer plays of 20 or more yards (46) than New York (49).

That success stemmed from a secondary spearheaded by Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II, as the Jets ranked second in both open-allowed percentage (73.6) and burn-allowed percentage (41.3) and third in opponent QB rating (76.0).

Despite seeing his numbers dip a bit from his sensational 2022 rookie season, Gardner was still named an All-Pro for a second time. After intercepting two passes and registering 20 passes-defensed in his first season, he had no interceptions and 12 passes defended last year. Part of the reason for the decline in those stats, however, can be attributed to opposing teams respecting his coverage skills and no longer throwing his direction.

He was only targeted 54 times on his 442 plays in pass coverage, which works out to 12.2% of pass plays – the fifth-lowest mark among the 44 corners who appeared in at least 400 plays in pass coverage last season.

Lowest 2023 Pct. of Pass Plays Targeting CBs (Min. 400 Plays in Coverage)

1. Jaylon Johnson, Chicago Bears (10.4%)
2. Patrick Peterson, Pittsburgh Steelers (11.2%)
3. Steven Nelson, Houston Texans (11.9%)
4. Kendall Fuller, Washington Commanders (12.0%)
5. Sauce Gardner, New York Jets (12.2%)

Gardner and Reed both registered a 64.8 open-allowed percentage – with the league average for all corners at 69.8 – and Reed intercepted one pass and laid claim to nine passes defensed in 2023.

Given that the NY Jets had a pair of shutdown corners, opposing teams rarely tested them. Only 51.4% of all opposing quarterback passes were thrown to wide receivers – the lowest mark in the NFL – so nearly half of their throws went to running backs or tight ends not covered by Gardner nor Reed.

Although Purdy and Aiyuk have quite the bond, if Purdy must look in the direction of his tight end or running back, that won’t be a problem.

As visualized in a prior graphic, Kittle is one of the best in the NFL at reeling off a big play, and McCaffrey just so happens to be not only one of the best in the NFL at running the ball, but also one of the best pass catchers coming out of the backfield.

McCaffrey’s 67 receptions were the third most among all running backs last season (with Hall leading the league with 76), and nearly half of those catches moved the chains. A whopping 46.3% of his receptions went for first downs – the highest percentage among the 33 running backs with at least 30 receptions.

The three-time Pro Bowler, however, is the most dangerous when simply taking a handoff.

He led the league with 1,459 rushing yards and no running back had a higher percentage of runs for 10+ yards than his mark of 16.2. McCaffrey, who had 132 total yards and two touchdowns in the NFC title game win over the Detroit Lions, found his most success running to the left, averaging an NFL-best 7.41 yards to the left sideline, and wouldn’t you know, the 49ers just got their standout left tackle back on the field.

Highest 2023 Rushing Avg. to Left Sideline by RBs (Min. 40 Carries to Left)

1. Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers (7.41)
2. D’Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles (6.05)
3. James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (5.93)
4. Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers (5.87)
5. Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs (5.54)

While McCaffrey, Purdy and Aiyuk garner most of the accolades for the 49ers, Williams may be the most integral to the success of the offense.

A Pro Bowler in all but one of his 12 seasons in the NFL, the 36-year-old offensive lineman isn’t showing signs of slowing down, earning All-Pro honors in each of the last three years.

And as he goes, so go the 49ers.

The Niners were a few plays away from winning last season’s Super Bowl, and with Williams and Aiyuk officially back, the 49ers bring back all the pieces of last year’s prolific offense.

It might not be firing on all cylinders with all the players on the same field together for the first time since last February’s Super Bowl loss, but as our model suggests, the team is built to get back to the championship game.

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