Fight Picks: Naoya Inoue vs. Luis Nery

Ring and undisputed junior featherweight champion Naoya Inoue will face former two-division titlist Luis Nery at the Tokyo Dome, Tokyo, on Monday.

The eagerly anticipated showdown will take place on ESPN+ at 4 a.m. ET/ 1 a.m. PT and at 9 a.m. GMT.

Inoue, rated at No. 2 by The Ring at pound-for-pound, has destroyed every foe they have put before him en route to claiming world titles at 108, 115, 118 and 122 pounds. The big-punching Japanese “Monster” has confirmed his moniker in demolishing the likes of Omar Narvaez (KO 2), Jamie McDonnell (TKO 1), Juan Carlos Payano (KO 1) and Emmanuel Rodriguez (KO 2). However, it’s his pair of triumphs over four-weight world champion Nonito Donaire that provided Inoue with considerable acclaim. He edged Donaire (UD 12) in an instant classic that was later named 2019 Fight of the Year by The Ring, then stopped him in the second round of their rematch.

Inoue, 31, became the undisputed bantamweight champion when he dominated and stopped Paul Butler in 11 one-sided rounds. With nothing left to conquer at 118, Inoue moved up in weight and looked just as impressive as ever bludgeoning WBC/ WBO titlist Stephen Fulton (TKO 8) and, most recently, won the vacant Ring and IBF/ WBA titles from Marlon Tapales (KO 10).

Nery, rated at No.5 by The Ring at junior featherweight, moved through the bantamweight ranks and became the WBC mandatory challenger to Shinsuke Yamanaka. The Mexican puncher traveled to Japan and shocked the long-reigning champ via brutal fourth-round stoppage. However, in the aftermath, Nery was stripped of The Ring championship after it was known that he had taken a banned substance (zilpaterol). The WBC continued to recognize Nery, but then stripped him for failing to make weight for the rematch. Very much the pariah, Nery defeated Yamanaka by second-round stoppage but received little in the way of credit.

The now 29-year-old eventually moved up to claim the vacant WBC 122-pound title by defeating Aaron Alameda (UD 12), but lost it in his first defense to Brandon Figueroa (KO 7). Nery has since won four fights, including The Ring 2023 Fight of The Year against Azat Hovhannisyan (KO 11).

Inoue (26-0, 23 knockouts) has taken to 122-pounds like a duck to water, but there will be a certain pressure that comes with performing in front of 50,000 people. It’s unlikely, but might that bother him? How will Nery (35-1, 27 KOs) hold up under Inoue’s power? Is there any danger of over-confidence from Inoue? Can the Mexican southpaw find a way to force Inoue into a firefight?

Online gambling group William Hill lists Inoue as a 1/16 (-1600) favorite, while Nery is priced at 7/1 (+700); the draw is 16/1 (+1600).

Here’s how the experts see it:

THE RING 

DOUG FISCHER: INOUE TKO 5-7

“I think Nery is a dangerous challenger, but the Mexican has athletic limitations and certain habits that will enable Inoue to strike hard and often from the opening bell. Nery is an experienced southpaw, but he’s not as cagey as Marlon Tapales, who fought cautiously and out of a shell when took Inoue 10 rounds in December. Nery’s got an attitude, but he’s doesn’t have world-class speed or reflexes to go with it. I think he’ll take more chances early in the fight than most of Inoue’s recent opponents. And because he usually keeps his gloves low and loops most of his punches, he will be right in line for Inoue’s jabs, lead rights, and his explosive one-two combinations. If Nery tries to get his jab off against Inoue, I think The Monster will punish him with well-timed counter left hooks. I don’t know if Inoue will be able to get to Nery’s body, but his speed, timing and accuracy will stun — maybe drop or seriously hurt — the brash Mexican early in the bout. Nery’s prideful and tough, so I think he’ll survive into the middle rounds, maybe landing counter punches here and there, but he’ll probably get beaten down before the late rounds.“

ANSON WAINWRIGHT: INOUE TKO 8

“Inoue looks to be in his absolute prime which doesn’t bode well for anyone at 122-pounds. He’s beaten Fulton and Tapales with considerable ease barely losing a round on his way to becoming a two-division Ring and undisputed champion. Meanwhile Nery caused a lot of controversy in Japan with his two fight series with Yamanaka. He was banned for life and only got special dispensation to face Inoue. I think that Inoue will make him pay for his past crimes in Japan and that is part of the reason the fight was allowed to take place. Nery is a good fighter, very good but Inoue is on another level. I suspect he’ll punish the Mexican before breaking him down in around eight-rounds for a comprehensive and very satisfying stoppage win.”

LEE GROVES: INOUE KO 8

“The Monster” is at his zenith, and he’s especially effective at home. Nery is experienced, powerful, dangerous and confident, and he believes he can duplicate James “Buster” Douglas’ feat of knocking out Mike Tyson at the Tokyo Dome. But there’s a reason why Douglas’ accomplishment remains so special — its rarity. Nery can box, but he loves to brawl, and anyone who brawls with Inoue will eventually get nailed. Nery has been stopped in out-of-the-blue fashion before (see his lone loss to Brandon Figueroa), and because of Inoue’s sublime fusion of speed, power and technique, I believe it will happen again, because, after all, 12 rounds is a long time to be in the ring with this undisputed champion.”

DIEGO MORILLA: INOUE TKO 8

“The vast majority of beasts on this planet would never bite on something bigger than themselves. As much bite as a panther may have, he has no business trying to bite a monster. Naoya has too much of everything for anyone, and ‘Panterita’ is not the exception. Very few fighters in the world can be deemed absolutely unbeatable in their prime and in their right weight, and Naoya is definitely one of them. Aside from a few interesting moments, the fight will switch to a completely different pace once Inoue steps on the gas, and it will be a matter of time from then on.”

MARTY MULCAHEY: INOUE UD

“I believe Naoya Inoue is the most complete boxer on the planet, and the most dangerous fighter to boot with exceptional finishing skills. Luis Nery is literally the biggest (coming in over the weight and used PED’s in his last couple outing in Japan) challenge for Inoue to date, and could cause an upset if Inoue is not cautious early. Boxing IQ is not a problem for Inoue though, so he will take his time early jabbing and circling Nery while looking for holes and flaws in an increasingly frustrated foe. Inoue showed he can take a punch in Donaire clashes, and his feet will guide him away from any problems if caught flush. As the rounds ratchet up so will Inoue’s punch output and accuracy, with a couple championship round knockdowns sealing an unanimous decision win by three points or more.”

NORM FRAUENHEIM: INOUE KO 6

“It’s the perfect storm, perfect for Inoue. The storm is about to be unleashed on Luis Nery, who in the end might regret that the Japanese Boxing Commission lifted a lifetime ban of the Mexican junior-featherweight. Nery isn’t exactly popular in Japan after missing weight following a positive drug test in bouts involving Shinsuke Yamanaka. But apparently a beating is better than a ban and that’s what Inoue’s army of fans can expect at the Tokyo Dome. Expect Inoue to overwhelm Nery in his ongoing bid to overtake Terence Crawford in the pound-for-pound debate.”

Naoya Inoue capped 2022 with an 11th-round TKO of Paul Butler that crowned him undisputed bantamweight champ. Photo by Naoki Fukuda

BOXING INSIDERS

DUKE MCKENZIE (FORMER THREE-DIVISION TITLEHOLDER/TV ANALYST): INOUE MD

“With two punchers going head-to-head we should be guaranteed a knockout but I think it goes to points. Inoue has become a knockout expert. A two-time undisputed world champion in different weight classes. The betting odds are heavily stacked in his favor. He’s not just a headhunter, he’s a savage body puncher, who also hits hard with either hand, with no obvious flaws. Nery isn’t without a chance of pulling off a massive upset, he will need to box when Inoue wants to fight and fight when Inoue wants to box. The question is: Can Nery see the final bell? Inoue wins a majority decision.”

STEVE FARHOOD (TV ANALYST): INOUE KO

“There’s a temptation to give Nery a puncher’s chance, but I’m not so sure he’s the puncher in this matchup. Inoue started as a 108-pounder and has been crushing everyone ever since, regardless of size. Inoue by bodypunch kayo in the middle rounds.”

CAMILLE ESTEPHAN (PROMOTER, EYE OF THE TIGER): INOUE TKO 8

“It’s definitely an intriguing fight given Nery’s power. Inoue is to me among the best pound-for-pound. His speed and precision will be too much though for Nery. I would not be surprised to see Inoue stop Nery in 8.”

SERGIO MORA: (FORMER WORLD CHAMPION/ COMMENTATOR): INOUE TKO

“I think the Inoue-Nery will be amazing fight, but I have to go with Inoue by stoppage. I called Nery vs. [Azat] Hovhannisyan which was a Fight of The Year candidate, and loved every second of it. Nery is awesome boxer-puncher, but Inoue is all time great puncher! Nery beats everyone at bantamweight EXCEPT Inoue. Inoue looks unstoppable. Inoue by late TKO.”

TOM GRAY (FORMER MANAGING EDITOR FOR THE RING): INOUE TKO 8

“While I believe Nery is the most dangerous option available for Inoue at 122, I still don’t see him winning the fight. It’s one of those situations where one guy is better than the other at everything. Nery hits hard; Inoue hits harder. Nery has quick hands; Inoue’s hands are quicker. Nery has world-class skills; Inoue has elite-level skills. The move up to junior featherweight has seen Inoue finish his work a little later than most of his assignments at 118. I think he takes the air of Nery’s lungs with a body shot somewhere in the second half.”

Luis Nery lands a punch against McJoe Arroyo during a bantamweight bout on March 16, 2019 in Arlington, Texas. – Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images

JOE ROTONDA (MATCHMAKER, MAIN EVENTS): INOUE TKO

“I couldn’t love this fight anymore, two monster punchers, both in the prime of their careers. Luis Nery has had some hiccups throughout his career; missing weight, loss to Brandon Figueroa, etc. However, when he is motivated and in shape, he is one of the most entertaining fighters in the sport, and same obviously goes for Inoue. With that being said, Inoue has never given us a reason to bet against him, he’s ferocious, always in shape, I think he blitzes Nery at some point through the midway mark en route to a TKO stoppage, in a very entertaining fight.”

ROBERT DIAZ (MATCHMAKER): INOUE KO 6

“This fight is for pride and honor amongst other things. This fight will have to of the bigger punchers in the division the difference will be precision and not just power and defense. While Nery will be ready to mix it up and take one in order to land one, Inoue will once again show why he is so special by hitting and not getting hit. It will be very exciting while it lasts, but I don’t see if going too long. The end comes in the sixth with a devasting KO by The Monster Inoue!”

RICH MAROTTA (COMMENTATOR): INOUE KO 3

“Naoya Inoue vs Luis Nery is a can’t miss firefight. It will be spectacularly exciting for as long as it lasts, which I don’t think will be too long. I get the whole Tokyo Dome, Tyson-Douglas angle, and I think it’s a fun promotional tool. However, Inoue is such an amazing, and I think, historically potent fighter, that I don’t see an upset looming.  In addition, styles work against Nery, who loves to get close before releasing his own considerable arsenal. He will be walking right into the jaws of the lion, or in this case, “The Monster”. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nery land some major league punches, and perhaps even deck Naoya, but I can see no other final result than Inoue, a KO winner within three rounds.”

ALEX STEEDMAN (COMMENTATOR): INOUE KO

“This is what fans like to call a fun fight; in other words, someone is getting smashed and it’s almost certainly going to be Nery. I think we saw, for the first time, Inoue falling in love with his own reputation against Tapales last time when he neglected his talent and looked somewhat mortal. That version of Inoue gives you feint hope but not much. Too good, too powerful, hits too hard. That Nery likes to engage is a recipe for his own personal disaster and a fan’s delight. Inoue to win spectacularly, again. Nothing boring or routine about that even though he makes it looks so.“

RAUL MARQUEZ (FORMER WORLD CHAMPION/COMMENTATOR): INOUE KO 5

“Nery has nothing to present to Inoue. Nery will be there to be hit and Inoue will KO him whenever he wants too. Inoue KO 5.”

JOLENE MIZZONE (MANAGER): INOUE TKO 9

“I just think that Inoue is a very special boxer, he has the total package in my opinion and don’t think there is anyone out there right now that can beat him. I am also picking the ninth round because he stopped his last three opponents in the 8th, 10th and 11th round, it time for Round 9! I will take it a step further and say he will stop him with a body shot.”

BOB SANTOS (TRAINER): INOUE TKO 

“I think it’s gonna be very difficult for Nery to go overseas and win. It’s hard to win a championship overseas but then when you’re talking about a pound-for-pound guy, who is one of the best fighters in the world, it’s gonna be very, very difficult to come out victorious. I’m taking Inoue by late stoppage. He has too much punching power and too much speed.”

WAYNE MCCULLOUGH (FORMER WORLD CHAMPION/ TRAINER): INOUE KO 7

“With only one loss on his record, Nery has a good chance against Inoue. He is a good solid puncher, like Inoue, so both guys have the ability to hurt each other. I think Nery will force Inoue to stand and trade in close but they will both throw lots of punches. Nery’s straight lefts to the head, from his southpaw stance, may be effective against Inoue but it will leave him open for the straight rights to the head by Inoue. This could be a close fight in the first half of the fight but I think Inoue will inch closer in the second half and land a left hook to Nery’s body, sending him down and out around the seventh.”

RUDY HERNANDEZ (TRAINER): INOUE KO

“I see it as an entertaining fight, that all will enjoy and show why Inoue is the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world (Crawford is No. 2 in my book.) A great fight that will bring happiness to the Japanese people/ fans when Inoue beats Nery by knockout within six-rounds.”

Final Tally: Inoue 20-0

Questions and/or comments can be sent to Anson at [email protected].

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