Eckert’s Examinations: CB Josiah Scott 2022 Coverage Study

Today I wanted to circle back to the cornerback position considering CB Josiah Scott was running as first-team slot corner this offseason. Not overreacting to that fact but it’s worthy of learning more about the player and what it could mean for the 2024 season.

Pittsburgh reunited with CB Cam Sutton this offseason, but his services were available due to a domestic violence felony reduced to misdemeanor. The NFL has suspended him for eight games, opening up opportunities for men such as Scott and others.

Using Sports Info Solutions (SIS), this study will look at various coverage stats from the 2022 season, the only year of Scott’s four-year career with substantial snaps. I will also include current and former Steelers since 2022 for comparison.

Let’s dive in. Here’s 2022 coverage snaps (minimum of 200) and targets for quantity context:

Though 2022 was Scott’s most snaps in a season to date, it was the least of focused players. His 250 coverage snaps ranked 99th out of the 111 qualifying corners (minimum of 200).

Scott’s 26 targets were the least among the highlighted group, which tied for 105th (sixth-least). Not much quantity compared to the league and players of interest, which is important to recall as we learn more.

NOTE: At the end of the article, there is a table that includes full rankings of the seven current and former Steelers for further comparison.

Here are 2022 snap alignments for the players in our sights, from Pro Football Focus (PFF):

This paints a clear picture of where their opportunities came in 2022, with the majority of the group having a defined spot. Sutton was the player with the most versatility in 2022, before Pittsburgh let him walk in free agency. He was picked up by Detroit where he played the vast majority as a wide corner, but would likely return to a more versatile role with likely even higher slot snaps than 2022.

Scott played most as a slot corner, which is the biggest current void the Steelers are looking to fill. He is the current Steeler that fit the bill most in 2022, with former Steelers Chandon Sullivan and Arthur Maulet being those men previously. Great info on Scott, especially paired with a similar study I did on the rest of the corners in 2023.

Other important context is man versus zone, and here are those rates:

The first thing that’s important to note are schemes of the different teams the corners played for. Peterson and Sullivan for example, had very low man rates in the Minnesota Vikings defense while Jackson played the most zone with Carolina.

Scott had a 27.1 man rate, in the middle of the pack of our seven focused corners, and his 58.1 zone rate was second most. Yes, things could look much different in Pittsburgh if he earns playing time. Sullivan’s rates last season as the primary slot corner (28.5 man, 59.8 zone) were eerily similar to Scott’s in 2022, so that could benefit the latter if he sees the field in 2024.

Now let’s begin to examine the quality of play with completion percentage and deserved catch rate, which is the number of completions and drops divided by the number of catchable targets and passes defensed:

Scott posted an undesirable 69.2 completion rate allowed, tying for 104th, the seventh-worst number of qualifiers in 2022. His 75.0 deserved catch rate allowed was much rosier though, landing slightly above the NFL mean (T-48th).

Of the 26 targets thrown his way, 24 of them were catchable passes, allowing 18 completions, and six passes defensed. Being utilized far more in zone coverage, along with the rate of catchable passes makes sense given his low completion rate allowed, but the stronger more telling deserved catch rate is encouraging to see.

Next, let’s look at the yardage of the targets with yards per attempt and yards per game:

Landing in a similar quadrant to the previous view (low top left), Scott allowed an 11.2 yards per attempt number that ranked 107th, fifth-worst among his peers and bottomed the list of players we’re focused on. The yards per game result fared much stronger at 26.5 though, ranking 56th.

The latter makes sense with his lower snap opportunities and points to the discouraging yards per attempt number being the more important (and concerning) one for Scott’s outlook.

Another stat used often to evaluate defenders in coverage is QBR Against (factors in completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions), so let’s see how they fare along with points saved per play (PSPP – The total EPA responsibility while in coverage using the Total Points system that distributes credit among all players on the field for a given play, with positive numbers being good.

Totals are scaled up to map to the average points scored or allowed on a team level, with the player’s snap count determining how much to adjust. For pass defenders, this includes accounting for pass rush, broken tackles, dropped interceptions, turnovers, and turnover returns.):

In these terms, Scott landed below the mean in each data point. His 129.0 QBR Against was third-worst of the study (109th), while 0.022 points saved per play landed him at 83rd. The more individual metric is QBR Against, which was unfortunate to see him fare so poorly in. His PSPP being the better of the two checks out, given the team level factors within a quality Eagles squad.

To close, let’s look at SIS’s Boom and Bust percentages to see the rates of big plays allowed or made in coverage.

• Boom % = The percentage of dropbacks that resulted in an EPA of 1 or more (a very successful play for the offense)
• Bust % = The percentage of dropbacks that resulted in an EPA of -1 of less (a very unsuccessful play for the offense)

Here we see Scott below average in each once again, expected given the prior findings. His 34.6 boom rate allowed ranked 97th, and 11.5 bust rate allowed slotted in at 101st. Not great. Outside of the low marks I’ve already laid out, Scott allowed three touchdowns and had two interceptions. Though the latter is more encouraging, the bad outweighed the good overall for Scott in 2022.

Here’s a wrap up table of the data and conclusion:

So, we clearly see that Scott would have his work cut out for him in order to earn Pittsburgh’s slot corner role in 2024. Along with under achieving in coverage overall, he is a year removed from these substantial snaps, another factor working against his chances.

The Steelers are clearly doing their due diligence, as they should, wanting to find out what they have throughout the depth of their roster. They will continue doing so to fill the most glaring hole on the defense, at least until Sutton is eligible to return following the Week Nine bye.

Speaking of Sutton, this reminder of his strong 2022 season was a nice trip down memory lane that warranted a contract extension in our opinion at Steelers Depot. A lot has happened since and while a return to that performance is obviously the hope, it’s far from a guarantee.

We also see some former Steelers that fared well, that can also play in the slot, so that is of course an option. No hurry though, considering their familiarity with the Black and Gold, and wanting to see younger players (rookie Beanie Bishop for example) before perhaps signing a veteran like Peterson or Sullivan back.

I am fascinated to watch this transpire, and what ultimately happens at slot cornerback for Pittsburgh in 2024.