Cynthia Frelund’s Model Projects Steelers To Miss Playoffs: ‘Absolute Nightmare’ Schedule

When the Pittsburgh Steelers’ schedule was released Wednesday night, many fans groaned. Given the matchups we already knew, it was no secret the schedule was going to be hard, but the schedule makers decided to make it even harder by scheduling a brutal stretch of games from week 11 to 18, during which the Steelers will face all their divisional opponents twice and the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs.

Given the brutal schedule, it is no surprise that when Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com ran her simulations of the 2024 NFL season, the Steelers missed the playoffs and averaged only 8.7 wins.

“Get your popcorn ready!” wrote Frelund. “In Week two, we get Russell Wilson back in Empower Field at Mile High. While that early-season revenge game will provide plenty to talk about in the coming months, it’s Pittsburgh’s second-half slate that really deserves attention. It’s an absolute nightmare. After their Week 9 bye, the Steelers’ final nine games are, in aggregate, more than twice as hard as their first eight (I measured the win probabilities and added them). Among those nine contests: all six of their division games, as well as heavyweight bouts with the Eagles (in Philadelphia) and Chiefs (on Christmas).”

The second half of the schedule is one of the hardest I have ever seen, making the beginning of the season even more important. The Steelers have to rack up wins early in the season to give themselves some buffer room for inevitable losses toward the end of the season.

One thing that could help the Steelers surpass the 8.7 win projection, though, is improved quarterback play. It is no secret that last season, the Steelers’ quarterback play was very bad, and the new room of QB Russell Wilson and QB Justin Fields should improve that tremendously. The NFL is a quarterback league, and you are only going to go as far as your quarterback can take you. When you have good quarterback play, you can beat anyone, and the Steelers showed that they were capable of beating teams with bad quarterback play the last few seasons.

Although it has been said a lot in recent years, but this year may be the hardest for head coach Mike Tomlin to continue his streak of non-losing seasons. The schedule is just so hard. However, if Wilson and/or Fields end up playing well, then the Steelers can make a run.

While the schedule looks hard, the games are played on grass, not paper. Come September, we will see how the Steelers actually look, and come the back half of the schedule, injuries can make things look very different. Who knows how any team will look in September right now, let alone December? The Steelers have their work cut out for them, but they aren’t going to run from the fight, even if they were dealt a crappy hand.