Women’s Flyweight Gold at Stake Saturday in Sphere

A once-in-a-lifetime pay-per-view happens Saturday night in Las Vegas. While Canelo Alvarez and Edgar Berlanga do battle in the boxing ring from T-Mobile Arena, MMA‘s top promotion is also holding a marquee event inside the Las Vegas Sphere.

To mark Mexican Independence Day, the Sphere holds what UFC CEO Dana White is calling “a one-of-one, a one-and done, never done again event.” The second annual edition of Noche UFC, a.k.a., UFC 306,  takes place this weekend. Unlike last year’s event, which was an ESPN+ Fight Night card, the main card for this week’s show is a pay-per-view show.

Live coverage begins at 7:30 pm ET/ 4:30 pm PT with a single early prelim on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass before continuing on ESPN+ with late prelims at 8 pm ET/ 5 pm PT. Due to coverage of college football games across the ESPN family of networks, late prelims will be aired over ESPNNEWS.

Women’s Flyweight Title at Stake in Trilogy Bout Saturday

All told, barring any late postponements between now and Saturday, the final version of Noche UFC features a 10-fight card. Highlighting the night’s activities is a championship fight doubleheader, beginning with the Noche UFC co-main event.

The UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship is at stake in a trilogy bout for the co-headliner. Incumbent champion Alexa Grasso (16-3-1 MMA, 8-3-1 UFC) battles challenger and No. 1 contender Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1 MMA, 12-3-1 UFC.)

As with all UFC championship fights, the Noche UFC co-main event is an advertised maximum of five rounds at five minutes per round.

The Series So Far…

Heading into the trilogy bout, the all-time series between these two contestants stands at 1-0-1 in favor of the champion. Last year, during the original Noche UFC card, the rematch between Grasso and Shevchenko ended in a draw.

Due to the champion’s advantage, Grasso retained the 125-lb. belt with this result. How will chapter three play out?

Noche UFC Co-Main Event Fighter Comparison and Betting Odds

Going into the Noche UFC co-main event on Saturday night, both the champion and the challenger stand level in height at 5-foot-5. Shevchenko owns a one-inch reach advantage (68 inches to 67 inches) and a half-inch leg reach advantage (38 inches even to 37 1/2 inches) over Grasso.

Currently, the oddsmakers have Alexa Grasso installed as a -135 betting favorite on the money line, while Shevchenko counters as a +114 underdog. If you plan on betting on this or any other fight in MMA and/or this weekend, please wager responsibly.

Grasso Seeks Finality in Rivalry with Shevchenko Saturday Night

Champion Alexa Grasso has posted a mark of 3-1-1 in her last five fights. Before the draw last year, she won the first chapter of this rivalry against Shevchenko in March of 2023.

After the second fight in the series ended in a deadlock, she met with the media backstage and gave her two cents on the result.

“I’m not frustrated,” she said about the draw that night last September. “I did an amazing job and that’s what I’m taking [from tonight.]

With the rivalry being extended to a third fight, will she end the hostilities once and for all? Tune into the Noche UFC co-main event and find out.

Shevchenko Returns From Injury in Noche UFC Co-Main Event

In the other corner, Valentina Shevchenko has posted a 3-1-1 record of her own in the last five fights. Prior to the start of the rivalry with Grasso beginning, she scored a split decision victory over Talia Santos (22-3 MMA, 4-3 UFC) in June of 2022. Santos is now with the PFL.

A few days after Shevchenko and Grasso fought for the second time, the former revealed that she had sustained a broken thumb and a hand fracture during the contest, resulting in surgery.

Yesterday got the results on my 1 st round hand injury.
Comminuted fracture that requires surgery 💪💪💪

— Valentina Shevchenko (@BulletValentina) September 19, 2023

Despite the injury, Shevchenko refused to have her cornermen throw in the towel on their fighter’s behalf.

“I felt it affect my striking,” she said of the broken hand and thumb fracture, “but, at the same time, I thought ‘If I stop, it’s going to be very frustrating for the whole fans for this night because they were waiting for this fight, they wanted to see this fight and if I stopped in the first round and said I cannot continue’. Again, that’s my personal rules. That’s why I continued to fight with my whole heart.”

With a clean bill of health, will Shevchenko get revenge on the champion this Saturday?

Analysis, Film Study, and Prediction

Stylistically, the Noche UFC co-main event looks to favor Valentina Shevchenko, a decorated combat athlete with a 2nd dan black belt in Taekwondo black belt in judo, and International Master of Sport status in judo, Muay-Thai,  boxing and kickboxing, compared to Alexa Grasso’s brown belt in BJJ.

Grasso Adept on the Ground

Numerically speaking, Alexa Grasso has recorded six of her 16 career wins inside the distance, including a submission versus Joanne Wood in Columbus in March of 2022. During the first round, Grasso dropped Wood and secured top position. While the two traded shots on the mat, Grasso allowed Wood to stand up.

After, they continued the striking exchange on the feet, with Grasso absorbing some kicks before taking Wood down a second time, assuming back mount in the process. From there, she secured both of her hooks to apply the necessary torque, sinking in the rear-naked choke.

If Alexa Grasso can drop Valentina Shevchenko in the early going, she’ll be golden on Saturday night.

Shevchenko Can Punch Her Way to the Title

In the other corner, Valentina Shevchenko has fists of fury, as illustrated during the third round of her fight vs. Kaitlyn Chookagian in February of 2020, weeks before the pandemic hit the United States.

Upon Shevchenko dropping Chookagian in that round, she had her opponent in a crucifix position and unloaded ground and pound shots. The referee couldn’t interfere quickly enough to stop the fight.

Look for Shevchenko to wear Grasso down with punches in the Noche UFC co-main event on Saturday night.

Final Thoughts

Any time a trilogy fight takes place, you’ve got all the trimmings for a fantastic five rounds (or less) of action. Enjoy the Noche UFC co-main event.

Prediction: Alexa Grasso by First-Round Submission.