Will the Premier League Get an Extra Champions League Spot for 2025-26?

Two bonus spots in the 2025-26 Champions League will be awarded to the domestic leagues whose teams perform best in Europe in 2024-25. So, will the Premier League earn one of those spots? We asked the Opta supercomputer to predict what will happen.

We’ve only just got started with the Champions League in 2024-25, and we’ve already found a reason to start thinking about 2025-26.

For many of the Premier League‘s biggest clubs, the title race is likely out of the question, and so qualifying for next season’s Champions League will be the aim for this campaign.

Just like last term, there is a possibility that fifth place in England’s top flight will be enough to make it into Europe’s biggest, best, most glamorous and most lucrative competition.

That will be decided based on the performances of each league’s teams in all three European competitions in 2024-25, using a points system where points are awarded for wins and progress through the rounds.

So, the better each nation’s teams do in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League in 2024-25, the higher the chance of that nation being awarded a bonus Champions League spot for the following campaign.

Last season, the failure of England’s best teams to perform in Europe meant the Premier League missed out on a fifth place in the Champions League. Those spots were instead awarded to Italy and Germany.

But will fifth place in the Premier League this season get a Champions League spot? We’re here to try and predict the answer to that question.

Throughout the campaign, we’ll use the Opta supercomputer‘s season projections for each European competition to work out and track the chances of the Premier League’s contingent earning that extra spot. We’ll use these projections to find an expected points (xPts) total for each association in the UEFA coefficients ranking, which then tells us how likely it is each nation would earn an additional place in next season’s Champions League.

20 September

It’s too early for any mere human to start making assumptions about any team’s European campaign, but that’s where the Opta supercomputer comes in.

Using its predictions for the 2024-25 outcome of the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, we can give an early season probability of each nation finishing the season with enough points to earn a bonus Champions League spot.

According to the supercomputer’s season projections, the Premier League boasts the Champions League favourites in Manchester City and the Conference League favourites in Chelsea. With that in mind, England’s top flight is the likeliest to finish among the two best-performing leagues in the UEFA coefficient race.

England is given a 72.1% chance of earning a bonus Champions League spot for 2025-26.

Spain is the second favourite, with a 54.7% chance, Portugal is third (30.2%) and Germany is fourth (25.4%).

Spain is second because La Liga sides are the second favourites to win each of the three European competitions: Real Madrid in the Champions League; Athletic Club in the Europa League; Real Betis in the Conference League.

Portugal boasts the favourites to win the Europa League according to the Opta supercomputer in Porto, but they are likely favoured in the coefficient race in part because they ‘only’ have five participants in Europe. UEFA takes an average points total from the number of teams each nation has competing, so if Portugal has a few teams do particularly well, it may be enough to earn an extra Champions League spot.

By the same token, it is also more difficult for Germany and Italy to repeat last season’s success (when they each earned a bonus UCL spot), with eight teams competing from Serie A and the Bundesliga.

Czech Republic, France, Greece and Turkey have all taken a hit on that front, with those four nations having already seen one of their teams eliminated from European competition.

There’s a long way to go yet, but if the supercomputer’s projections are anything to go by, fifth place in the Premier League could well be enough for Champions League qualification.

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