Why Jared Goff vs. the Vikings Defense is a Must-See Matchup

The Detroit Lions quarterback has been flawless for two straight games, but that run will be challenged by unbeaten Minnesota’s havoc-causing defense.

The Detroit Lions still have a hard road ahead, one that’s been made even more bumpy by the loss of their best defensive player and heart-and-soul leader.

Good thing they’ve still got their quarterback.

Overshadowed by the gruesome leg injury NFL sack-leader Aidan Hutchinson suffered in Detroit’s 47-9 destruction of the discombobulated Dallas Cowboys on Sunday was another virtuoso performance from Jared Goff, who’s on one of the most impressive two-game runs by a quarterback in recent memory.

After setting an NFL single-game record for completion percentage with his surgical 18-of-18, 292-yard, two-touchdown masterpiece against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 4, Goff played a leading role in handing the Cowboys their most lopsided home defeat since 1988 by connecting on 18-of-25 attempts for 315 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s laugher.

Our No. 2 quarterback in EVE produced passer ratings of 155.8 and 153.8 in those wins (a perfect rating is 158.3). EVE measures average yards gained through the air in expected passing situations compared to the league-wide expected amount. Only one other player since 1950 (Drew Brees in 2018) has gone above a 150 passer rating in back-to-back games.

Extending that superb streak figures to be anything but easy, however, with Goff’s next challenge coming against a Minnesota Vikings team that’s frustrated a few other top-tier passers over the course of the current NFC North leaders’ surprising 5-0 start.

Even with a Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers on the docket, there may not be a game on the Week 7 schedule with more importance and intrigue than Sunday’s showdown at U.S. Bank Stadium.

It’s a clash of storied division rivals that presently own the two best records in the NFC, as well as the best chances of winning the conference according to our projection model.

PROBABILITY OF WINNING THE NFC TITLE

1. 17.2% – Minnesota Vikings    
2. 15.4% – Detroit Lions            
3. 12.1% – Washington Commanders     
4. 9.9% – Green Bay Packers              
5. 8.3% – Seattle Seahawks             
6. 8.2% – Atlanta Falcons                      

It’s also a game that carries considerable weight for the 4-1 Lions, as a loss would drop Detroit two games behind Sam Darnold, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson and the Vikings in what’s been a gauntlet of an NFC North race thus far – with Minnesota holding the most favorable remaining schedule of the division’s four members.

TOUGHEST REMAINING STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

1. .629 – Chicago Bears              
2. .623 – Detroit Lions                  
3. .597 – Green Bay Packers        
4. .581 – San Francisco 49ers         
5. .515 – Minnesota Vikings          

While this main-event showcase won’t have one of its headliners with Hutchinson likely done for the season, it will feature one of the more interesting matches of wits between a future head coach and a former one when Goff and a talent-laden Detroit offense takes the field against a Minnesota defense that’s mastered the art of bringing mayhem to its opponents.

The Lions rank third in offensive EVE and lead the NFL in scoring (30.2 points per game) behind the balanced and creative play-calling of coordinator Ben Johnson. The Vikings are third in defensive EVE and have allowed points on a league-low 21.7% of opponent drives under a relentless and aggressive approach installed by Brian Flores, who’s making a strong case for a second chance at a head-coaching gig following a controversial departure from the Miami Dolphins after the 2021 season.

There’s no shortage of weapons at Johnson’s disposal. Amon-Ra St. Brown stands among the NFL’s most dependable short-range receivers, running mate Jameson Williams is averaging nearly 23 yards per catch while emerging into a premier playmaker, and the Lions house one of the league’s best running back duos in the thunder-and-lightning tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Still, Goff remains the key to it all. When he’s good, the Lions usually are as well. And when he’s great like he’s been lately, they’re decimating expected Super Bowl contenders and causing omnipresent team owners to spar with radio talk show hosts.

Including playoff games, Detroit is 17-3 since the start of the 2023 season when Goff records a passer rating of 85.0 or better, and it’s 12-2 over that time frame when he doesn’t throw an interception.

Conversely, the Lions are 2-8 since the start of the 2022 campaign when Goff’s passer rating goes below 83.0 and 7-10 when he’s been picked off at least once. And our model doesn’t expect greatness for Goff in this matchup, projecting him with 21.0 completions on 32.7 attempts for 216.7 yards with 0.9 passing TDs and 0.5 interceptions.

With Detroit clearly a more vulnerable opponent when Goff is off his game and the Vikings possessing an impressive propensity for creating chaos for enemy quarterbacks, it’s certainly understandable that our projection model’s Lions vs. Vikings prediction is Minnesota, with 58.8% chance of remaining the NFC’s lone unbeaten team after this weekend.

First in the NFL in interceptions and second overall in sacks per game (4.0), the Vikings have also held opposing quarterbacks to a league-low 70.3 passer rating with Flores’ high-energy, blitz-happy system.

They’re the first team since the 2001 New Orleans Saints to begin a season with three straight games of 5.0 or more sacks, and the first since the 2019 AFC East champ New England Patriots to register 11 interceptions through a season’s first five games.

The Vikings’ success has often been predicated on their ability to disrupt and confuse by bringing consistent heat from anywhere on the field, usually by sending extra attackers.

They’ve blitzed at the fourth-highest frequency of any team at 44.6%, a tactic that’s led to a strong 44.0% overall pressure rate and some rough afternoons for a few very accomplished quarterbacks.

Minnesota is fresh off making Aaron Rodgers look like a washed-up 40-year-old QB by intercepting the four-time league MVP three times in its 23-17 Week 5 victory over the Jets in London.

Two weeks earlier, Flores’ troops induced just the second multi-interception game of C.J. Stroud’s career in a 34-7 domination of the AFC South-leading Houston Texans, a game in which the Vikings recorded a stellar 53.8% pressure rate.