Why hasn’t Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence lived up to the hype?

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is typically not an overly effusive guy. He doesn’t give emotional pregame or locker room speeches. He doesn’t yell at teammates or coaches on the sideline.

That’s not how he leads. Jacksonville Jaguars coach Doug Pederson has consistently praised Lawrence for the way he stays level, never getting too high or too low.

But when he stood at the podium following the Jaguars’ 18-13 loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 2, Lawrence was angry and discouraged by the underperforming offense. He shook his head and listed mistakes made by himself, the receivers, offensive line, backs and coaches. He talked about everyone having to be accountable for a second less-than-stellar offensive performance to start the season.

“We suck right now,” he said at the podium. “So, I’m pretty shocked.”

It was as visibly upset as anyone in Jacksonville has seen Lawrence in three-plus seasons.

“That’s what you want from your leader,” Pederson said last week. “I don’t want anybody to sugarcoat anything.

“It may not be in his nature to do it, but you know what? He’s got to do it.”

As the Jaguars (0-2) head to Buffalo to face the Bills (2-0) on “Monday Night Football” (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) the discourse surrounding whether Lawrence has lived up to the hype is growing following two underwhelming performances to start the season.

Lawrence was tagged with a “generational prospect” label by draft analysts coming out of Clemson in 2021, but he has struggled with inconsistent play and turnovers in his first three NFL seasons. He’s played well enough to earn a $275 million contract extension that made him one of the top-paid QBs in the league this summer, but he hasn’t lived up to top-QB status on the field.

His rookie season was overshadowed by then-coach Urban Meyer, who was fired after a 2-11 start. Lawrence and Pederson bounced back with a playoff berth in 2022, but the quarterback regressed as injuries flooded the team in 2023. Those struggles have persisted early on this season, but can Lawrence finally break out for good and take the Jaguars back to the playoffs?

As an NFC executive put it: “You want to fall in love with him one day and divorce him the next.”

IN 2021, LAWRENCE was regarded by scouts, media analysts and fans as the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck in 2012. His size (6-foot-6), arm talent and dominance while at Clemson (which included winning a national title as a freshman), made him the most-hyped quarterback entering draft day.

When the Jaguars drafted him first overall, the expectations were sky-high.

Lawrence’s rookie season was a disaster under Meyer, whose questionable football decisions and mistreatment of players created a dysfunctional environment.

Lawrence threw 12 touchdown passes and had 22 turnovers (17 interceptions) in a 3-14 season. One NFL executive, who requested anonymity, called it a wasted year that knocked Lawrence’s developmental timetable out of whack.

The Jaguars hired Pederson — who is known for being QB-friendly and won Super Bowl LII with Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles — in 2022.

Lawrence’s second season started off slow. In Weeks 1-8, he threw nine touchdowns to nine interceptions. It wasn’t until Weeks 9-18 where he showed off top-QB potential — completing 69.7% of his passes (second in NFL) with 15 TDs and two interceptions.

And he had multiple elite moments in that time frame, too.

Deleting a 17-0 first-half deficit to beat the Las Vegas Raiders 27-20. Overcoming a nine-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Baltimore Ravens 28-27. Throwing three TD passes in nine minutes to force overtime and beat the Dallas Cowboys after trailing by 17 points in the third quarter.

And, finally, the biggest moment of his career: After throwing four interceptions in the first half of the wild-card game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Lawrence threw four touchdown passes and the Jaguars won 31-30 on a last-second field goal.

“I feel like he never gets flustered,” defensive lineman DeForest Buckner of the Jaguars’ AFC South rival Indianapolis Colts said. “Obviously from his rookie year until now, he’s grown a lot. But I would really say he’s poised throughout a game. We were all witness to it in that playoff game against the Chargers. … And that just shows the mental toughness … and just the short memory.”

In 2023, the Jaguars started 8-3. Lawrence had a 61.5 QBR (10th in the NFL) and completed 67.3% of his passes with 12 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. But he fell apart in the final six weeks throwing nine TD passes and seven interceptions. He had a 44.8 QBR and the Jaguars went 0-5 in his starts.

Lawrence’s tail off can be explained by injuries — he had a concussion in addition to his ankle and shoulder injuries — and his top two receivers, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, and multiple offensive linemen also missing games.

“He clearly wasn’t right last year,” an NFL personnel director said before the season. “He was pretty beat up and tried to play through it. I think his toughness and his ability to play through those issues and make it all about the team is commendable.”

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You have to look closely to find a time Lawrence has played well for an extended stretch.

There was a period — from Week 12 in 2022 to Week 12 in 2023 — when Lawrence was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He ranked top 10 in completion percentage, yards per attempt, QBR and passing yards. He threw 24 touchdown passes to nine interceptions. More importantly, the Jaguars were 14-4 (the same record as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs). The only team and QB with a better record in that time frame was Philadelphia and Jalen Hurts (15-1).

But all that highlights his biggest issue: inconsistency. Part of that is turnovers. He has 60 in three seasons, more than any other player in the NFL.

“[He’s] super confident, but the decision-making has to be better,” the NFC executive said. “I think it comes down to the fact that he’s been great his whole life. … Now he’s realizing you can’t do some of the things he has tried to get away with.

“I do believe he’s a top-10 quarterback once he figures all of that out. Maybe not the top, top level, but close.”

Lawrence’s 39 interceptions are third most in the league behind Josh Allen‘s 47 and Mahomes’ 43 since he entered the league, but he has 59 TD passes (16th in the NFL) while Mahomes (109) and Allen (103) are the only two players in triple digits.

Lawrence also struggles with ball security. He’s lost 21 fumbles in 52 career games, by far the most of any player since the 2021 season began — Detroit’s Jared Goff is second with 14 — and already tied for the most in franchise history with Mark Brunell, who did it in 120 games.

Entering Monday, Lawrence has a three-game streak without a fumble lost — two more games would tie the longest streak of his career.

“I’ve kept two hands on the ball when I’m escaping, when I’m stepping up, when the pocket’s muddy and I can see it and I know the issues,” Lawrence said this week. “I feel like I’ve done a much better job.”

The Jaguars believe Lawrence will solidify his spot as a top QB in the league, which is why they gave the contract extension that included $200 million in guarantees. It made him the highest-paid QB until Dak Prescott‘s deal surpassed that earlier this month.

Could the Jaguars have waited another year to do the deal? Of course, another NFC personnel executive said before the season, but the price would have only increased, especially if Lawrence put the flashes of elite play together for a full season.

Two weeks into the 2024 season, and that hasn’t happened — yet.

LAWRENCE HAS THROWN one touchdown pass in two games this season. It was to rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. against Miami in the season opener, and it was one of the best throws of his NFL career.

Thomas was sandwiched between three Dolphins defenders and Lawrence let the ball go as he was being hit by linebacker Emmanuel Ogbah.

Lawrence placed the ball in the back left corner of the end zone over cornerback Jalen Ramsey and safety Jordan Poyer. Thomas used his reach to make the catch along the end line. It was a perfect throw where only Thomas could get the ball. Thomas was about 15-20 yards away from where he’d eventually catch it when Lawrence released it.

It showed off Lawrence’s ability to see the field, anticipation, arm strength and accuracy: all qualities of an elite quarterback.

Pederson said over the offseason he expects Lawrence to have a jump year as he’s more comfortable in the offense — which offensive coordinator Press Taylor believes almost happened last season before Lawrence got hurt.

“The first half of the season, he was playing as good as anybody,” Taylor said. “I don’t know if he was getting credit for that outside the building. I have no clue. But we were very happy with how he was playing, how he was running the offense, managing games, winning games for us.”

There’s no sign of a jump happening this season yet. Lawrence’s completion percentage (51%) ranks 30th, and he is last in completion percentage on third down (21.4%).

His play, according to QBR (56.7), is barely above average (50). He has posted a QBR of less than 60 in seven consecutive starts — all of which he has lost, the longest active streak in the league.

“Whether that’s an injury thing, dealing with pressure up front, I don’t know, but there isn’t that consistency in how he sets and delivers. You want repeatable mechanics,” a former NFL head coach said of Lawrence’s performances. “Some of his completions I see are slightly out of frame when they shouldn’t be … I know he’s made efforts for that, but in my mind, he doesn’t seem as sharp, on it all the time, right now.

“I think it might be [that] he’s pressing — a lot.”

The offensive troubles haven’t all been on Lawrence. Entering Sunday, the offensive line ranked 24th in pass block win rate. Lawrence’s pressure rate (percentage of dropbacks where he was either sacked, under duress or hit) and sacks per dropback ranked 31st and last, respectively. And Lawrence’s receivers have a league-high four drops.

“If you evaluate Trevor — and I know the quarterback position gets a lot of scrutiny — but there’s a lot of issues that we have … just assignment errors that need to be fixed,” Pederson said. “Can he be better? Yeah, he can be better. I think that’s all part of just continuing to grow. … He’s on track.”

Lawrence has bounced back from rough starts before. Despite everything he’s gone through — from Meyer to end zone interceptions against Houston and Denver in 2022 to the wild-card playoff comeback to his list of injuries in 2023 — his self-confidence has not waned.

“I don’t really care what people think about me,” Lawrence told ESPN. “I play for the people around me. … But I also think things are earned in this league, and I would love to get to the point in my career where there’s no doubt about the player I am.”

ESPN national NFL reporter Jeremy Fowler contributed to this story.