Why 2024-25 Might Be the Season Bradford City Finally Move Back Up the EFL

A positive start to 2024-25 has Bradford City supporters hoping this might finally be the season they escape League Two. We look at the data to fuel that positivity in West Yorkshire.

Granted, a lot of supporters across the English Football League will say similar about their teams, but life’s been difficult as a Bradford City fan over the past few years.

Now into a sixth successive season in League Two, Bantams fans of a certain age have seen it all to this point.

From promotion to the Premier League in 1999 and the famous David Wetherall-inspired final day win over Liverpool to stave off relegation one season later, to the subsequent dramatic fall all the way through the divisions in the space of just seven years.

Since that promotion to England’s top flight, there’s also been two periods of the club entering administration after spending far more than they could afford during those two Premier League campaigns and a brief European excursion in the fondly remembered, yet now defunct, UEFA Intertoto Cup back in 2000.

Interestingly, the West Yorkshire club made it to the semi-finals of that competition, beating Lithuanian outfit FK Atlantas 7-2 and the Netherlands’ RKC Waalwijk 3-0 on aggregate before a tie with Russian giants Zenit proved too much. A certain Andrey Arshavin made his professional debut for the visitors during the second leg at Valley Parade.

There’s also been plenty of notable cup escapades during that time too. Chief among them was the unforgettable run to the League Cup final in 2012–13, when the Bantams became just the second side from the fourth tier to reach the showpiece after Rochdale in 1961-62 before losing 5-0 to Swansea City. And then there was the 4-2 comeback victory against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in January 2015, arguably one of the biggest upsets in recent FA Cup history.

“If I lose against Bradford, I don’t say that. I say it’s a disgrace,” were Jose Mourinho’s words before that game, and although Bradford fans will have been jubilant come the final whistle on that day, plenty of those same supporters will have said similar about the club’s plight in recent years.

That’s a point hammered home when looking back at the obvious lack of excitement this summer, which mostly stems from a perception that under-pressure club owner Stefan Rupp underdelivered in the transfer market.

The German has overseen a rocky spell of ownership since buying Bradford in May 2016, one which nearly ended in December 2021 as American investors WAGMI United reportedly wanted to purchase the club. They instead took over at Crawley Town, who became yet another side to surpass City with promotion to League One last campaign.

In typical Bradford fashion, the summer transfer window started brightly with the acquisition of EFL veteran Antoni Sarcevic – a player who has a remarkable seven promotions to his name – before it ended with the permanent departure of Jake Young to Stevenage. Young, a striker who struck 16 goals in 25 League Two appearances on loan at Swindon Town in 2023-24, arguably never got a fair crack at Valley Parade, irking many fans upon his departure.

Despite the somewhat underwhelming on-pitch recruitment, manager Graham Alexander enjoyed his first full pre-season in charge and the club is beginning to reap the rewards of some much-needed consistency in the dugout.

There’s no doubt Bradford should be playing at a level higher than the fourth tier of the English football pyramid. Last season’s average attendance at Valley Parade was just over 17,500 – the fifth successive season that they’ve topped the League Two crowd ranking. It was higher than all but three League One sides, seven Championship clubs and even Bournemouth, Luton Town and Brentford in the Premier League in 2023-24. The fans have stuck by their club, and now they deserve some success. There are positive signs that it might finally come this season.

Five matchdays into their 2024-25 League Two campaign, Bradford have already amassed 10 points owing to victories over MK Dons, Bromley and Carlisle United, and a draw with Salford City. The only blemish on their record came in the form of a 2-1 defeat at Grimsby Town. It’s the joint-most points they’ve taken from their opening five league matches since returning to League Two for the 2019-20 season, and it’s evident that slight tweaks in their setup are paying dividends.

After he joined the club in November following his sacking by MK Dons, Alexander struggled to find the best formation to suit his side and the personnel at his disposal. He eventually settled on a 3-4-2-1 shape towards the end of the campaign, and even though it nearly saw the Bantams qualify for the play-offs, they were hardly flawless. The lone striker was often too isolated, which led to an overall poor goalscoring record, while the central midfield pairing could be overrun with ease if they weren’t functioning at their highest level.

Skip forward to this season and Bradford now play in a much more rigid 3-5-2 formation, one that features two number 8s in the midfield three alongside a more defensive-minded destroyer, usually captain Richie Smallwood, whose performances have certainly benefitted.

The setup has inspired quick starts in matches as much as anything else, referenced by the fact that four of Bradford’s goals this season have come within the opening 10 minutes of games, the most of any EFL club in 2024-25. Their opener against Carlisle on Saturday fit into that category and also highlighted their new-found pressing abilities, which have seen 39.1% of their high turnovers (winning the ball within 40 metres of the opposition’s goal line) end in either a goal or shot.

Although not a prolific high-pressing side, with their 23 high turnovers more than just five teams in League Two, Alexander’s Bradford have attempted the most shots following regains in the final third (8). When they do pressurise opponents high up the pitch, they often make it count.

Their overall preference to play deep and attack quickly is shown by Bradford starting their open-play sequences deeper on the pitch than any other League Two side this season (38.2m from their own goal line), while only Doncaster Rovers (9) have had more attempts at goal than Bradford (6) from fast breaks in 2024-25.

It’s very early days, of course, but this setup seems to have aided an improvement in attack, with Bradford averaging more non-penalty goals per game (1.40) and a higher non-penalty expected goals (xG) per game (1.48) than in any League Two season since they fell back into the fourth tier in 2019.

That’s an encouraging hike in numbers, with star striker Andy Cook already netting three league goals across the opening five matchdays.

When talking about Bradford over the past few years, it’s been impossible not to mention the 33-year-old forward, who netted a brace at the weekend as his impressive goalscoring record with the club continues to grow. Since joining the Bantams in late January of 2021 – originally on loan from Mansfield Town – Cook has struck 68 goals in 154 league games (including play-offs), with only Alfie May (74), Mohamed Salah (72) and Erling Haaland (70) manging more across that period in England’s top four leagues.

When you add to the equation his 20 assists in that time, it becomes a case of only Salah (112) recording more goal involvements than Cook (88), so it’s little wonder that after his two-goal haul on Saturday, fan discussions on social media swiftly turned to whether or not he can be classed as a Bradford City ‘legend’ already.

When interviewed by BBC Sport West Yorkshire after the win on Saturday, he said he wants “to be the man I was the year before” when he netted 28 times in the league. Given he tops the League Two charts for shots on target (10), overall shots taken (20) and xG (3.2) at this early stage, he’s already sent a warning shot to League Two defences.

But he’s not been the only individual winner out of this season’s change of shape. Thirty-three-year-old Smallwood has also found form in a midfield role that’s much more suitable for his playing style. The Bradford captain has been a bit of a scapegoat for some since joining the club in the summer of 2022, but his performances this season are going a long way to helping his status at Valley Parade.

In 2024-25, he’s won possession back 32 times for his side and made 17 tackles – both among the top three for all players in the division – as he begins to endear himself to Bradford supporters. Overall, he leads the League Two ranking for starting the most open-play sequences this season (91), showing his nous for recovering the ball in midfield and getting Bradford back on the front foot.

His years of experience have certainly aided Bradford’s positive start to the campaign, and in him they have potentially the best central midfielder in the league on his day.

Of course, though, there are still problems that need to be addressed by Alexander on the training ground if promotion is to be the ultimate outcome this term.

Perhaps the most obvious and prevalent of those comes in the form of Bradford’s lack of defensive structure on the left-hand side of the pitch. Going forward from left wing-back, Tyreik Wright has been a breath of fresh air since re-joining on a permanent basis from Plymouth Argyle in July, with his assists on MD 1 and at the weekend on MD 5 both helping the Bantams to victory.

But with his marauding runs forward comes a sizeable problem as the space left behind in those areas down the left has been exposed on many occasions already. That can be best referenced by the fact that 43.6% of opposing attacks are coming down that side of the field in contrast to 34.6% on the other side, leaving the Bantams exposed in transition on a frequent basis.

There’s also the lack of control that Bradford can struggle with in matches. Their 47.6% possession average through their first five matches is only the 10th highest in League Two.

A quick glance at the below graphic highlights a slight cause for concern in the midfield battle, with the Bantams having 55% or more touches in just one of six zones in the centre of the park compared to their opposition. Some explanation for this, however, could be game state; only league leaders Doncaster (55.7%) have been in a winning position for a higher proportion of game time than Bradford (54.4%) this term.

The underlying performances paint a positive picture for Bradford in 2024-25, however.

Our expected points model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in every match based on the xG value of the shots taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). Each match is simulated 10,000 times; the expected points for each team in every game can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.

This is of course not an exact science, as xG data doesn’t take a lot of factors into account, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots. Nevertheless, it’s still a decent barometer of how teams are performing inside these opening five matches.

Bradford’s 10 points are about what they deserve from their five matches, with their Opta expected points tally at 9.48, just below Notts County (9.83), Doncaster (10.54) and Walsall (10.58). Compare that to Barrow (6.65 expected points) and Gillingham (5.13), who occupy the two positions above them in the table; Bradford’s league position at least feels sustainable.

What will please Alexander and supporters alike is that the Opta supercomputer now gives Bradford a 35.3% chance of finishing in the top three in League Two this season, which only Doncaster (69.9%) can better. But if the Bantams are finally to gain promotion to League One this time around, they need to find a way to keep this consistency all season long and not press the usual mid-season self-destruct button.

Simply put, if Alexander can deliver a first automatic promotion for the Bantams since landing in the Premier League back in 1999, he’ll likely be worshipped in Bradford for years to come.

Check out our new EFL stats hubs for 2024-25, with data on the Championship, League One and League Two. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.