Who Indiana Fever should protect in WNBA expansion draft: The locks, the bubble, the rest

INDIANAPOLIS — After months of anticipation, the WNBA has finally released its guidelines for the Golden State Valkyries expansion draft.

The expansion draft will occur Dec. 6 (ESPN) at an unspecified time. Golden State will be able to pick one player from each team, as well as one unrestricted free agent. Teams can protect six of their 12 players from being selected for the expansion draft.

Teams’ roster lists are from the end of the 2024 season, which means any player on an active roster is eligible to be protected — including unrestricted free agents.

In some cases, it makes sense for teams to protect those UFAs. All teams have their core, available this offseason, and a player can be cored (like a franchise tag in NFL) for up to two years in their career. For the Fever, it would make sense to protect Kelsey Mitchell: she is a UFA, but eligible to be cored, giving Indiana exclusive negotiating rights in exchange for a supermax contract.

More: Kelsey Mitchell says Indy could be home, but she has to be ‘selfish’ about free agency

More: Fever’s future is bright with strong core, but roster needs more help.

It would not make sense for the Connecticut Sun to protect someone like DeWanna Bonner, though, as she has already been cored the maximum number of times in her career. Golden State is not able to pick UFAs that have used up their core seasons, either.

Golden State will assume the contract length and terms of the players they pick from other teams. For example, Fever forward Temi Fagbenle is a restricted free agent this offseason. If Golden State were to pick Fagbenle in the expansion draft, the Valkyries would then have the right to match any offer she receives in free agency.

Teams will be required to submit their protected players lists around 10 days before the expansion draft.

The league will not make the protected lists public; it will only announce who was picked in the expansion draft.

With the terms officially decided, here’s who I think are protection locks for the Fever, on the fence, and likely unprotected:

Indiana Fever expansion draft roster protection locks

The Fever will likely prioritize their first three protected slots to their Big 3, who led Indiana back to the playoffs this season.

∎ Kelsey Mitchell: Priority No. 1 for the Fever this offseason is to retain Mitchell, and the first step of doing that is protecting her in the expansion draft. Mitchell has been a consistent heartbeat of the Fever franchise for seven seasons, leading the team in scoring for all but two of them. She and Fever rookie Caitlin Clark have jelled well in the backcourt, and the Fever will want to keep that duo together.

∎ Caitlin Clark: Duh. Clark broke the single-season league record for assists, rookie records for points and 3-pointers made, and revamped the Fever offense to the up-tempo pace they needed to improve. Clark was the Fever’s leading scorer this season (edging out Mitchell by two points) and is a franchise cornerstone.

∎ Aliyah Boston: The 2023 No. 1 pick, Boston helped to start the rebuild for the Fever. She led them to a 13-27 season in 2023, then was a large part of their 20-20 season in 2024. Boston, the 2023 Rookie of the Year, is a threatening post presence for the Fever, and she works well on the short roll, is a master rebounder and works well in the up-tempo offense the Fever started to run this year.

Indiana Fever players on the fence for WNBA expansion draft

All of these players have a strong case to be protected; they have either been starters or pivotal bench pieces throughout the season. But some other circumstances could have the Fever front office thinking one way or the other.

∎ Lexie Hull: I think Hull is the most likely on this list to be protected. She has one season remaining on her rookie contract. She started the season on the bench, getting minimal minutes and even some DNPs, but she flourished after the Olympic break. She went from around 22% shooting from 3 to nearly 50% in a 15-game span, and she was great in spacing out the floor for Indiana in the final stretch.

∎ NaLyssa Smith: In any other case, I would say Smith would be protected by the Fever. But with outside factors overlooking the season — including Smith being vocal about the lack of touches she’s gotten this season and saying she didn’t contribute as much as she wanted — makes me think it could be better for the two to part ways. As a former No. 2 pick, the Fever could protect her and hope to get something out of a trade, as well, or keep her for the final year of her rookie contract in 2025.

∎ Temi Fagbenle: The 32-year-old forward has been crucial for the Fever in the games she has been available as one of the first players able to catch Clark’s cross-court passes in transition. But three injuries (thumb, foot, shoulder), limited her availability to 22 regular-season games. Fagbenle has a lot of value as an athletic forward who can stretch the floor, but she will need to stay healthy. She is a restricted free agent, meaning the Fever could match any offer she gets.

∎ Damiris Dantas: Another forward impacted by injury, Dantas spent nearly half of the season on the suspended list because of a knee injury she suffered ahead of the season. But she easily worked her way into the rotation and gave some much-needed depth to the frontcourt. Her ability to knock down 3-pointers consistently gives the Fever a lot of spacing on the floor, as well as a jolt of energy. She has one year left on her contract.

Indiana Fever players likely unprotected in WNBA expansion draft

These five players are most likely, in my eyes, to be unprotected for the expansion draft.

But it’s important to remember just because these players are unprotected doesn’t mean they’ll all be picked. Just one player from each team will be picked, so most of these players will have the chance to return to the Fever in 2025.

∎ Katie Lou Samuelson: Samuelson returned to the WNBA after a year off to have her daughter in August 2023. At the Fever’s exit interviews, she said returning to the league was a lot tougher than she expected after giving birth, with the physical demands and juggling a baby at the same time. Samuelson began the season in the starting lineup at the 3, but her numbers slowly dwindled throughout the year as she struggled to shoot from 3-point range. Samuelson has one year left on her contract and is projected to earn $180,000 from the Fever in 2025.

∎ Grace Berger: The 2023 No. 7 pick saw her playing time decrease heavily this season with the addition of Clark at point guard. Berger primarily played in garbage time this season, with no true spot in the rotation. As a 2023 All-Rookie guard, she could use a change of scenery to possibly get more playing time somewhere else.

∎ Victaria Saxton: In her two years with the Fever, Saxton has never really had a spot in the rotation. As a third-round pick in 2023, she has played primarily in mop-up time. Her highest usage this season came in the final game of the regular-season (when the Fever were resting starters), and she had five points in five minutes.

∎ Kristy Wallace: Wallace was the only Olympian the Fever had this cycle, earning a bronze medal with Australia, Other than that, she had an up-and-down year, going from starting 15 games at the 3 for the Fever to not getting into games by the end of the season as Hull took over her starting spot. She has one year left on her rookie contract.

∎ Erica Wheeler: A 10-year WNBA veteran, Wheeler is coming out of a lucrative two-year contract that made her the highest-paid player in the league in 2023. With Clark coming into the fold this year, Wheeler went from the starting lineup to coming off the bench, but she assumed a crucial veteran role as a morale-builder for Indiana. Wheeler is an unrestricted free agent this offseason.

Follow IndyStar Fever Insider Chloe Peterson on X at @chloepeterson67.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Who should Indiana Fever protect in WNBA expansion draft for Valkyries