What to Watch for in the Opener

Another Super Bowl trophy hasn’t suppressed the Kansas City Chiefs’ hunger for continued excellence.

For Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, there’s still plenty more to prove.

Neither will be lacking motivation when the two AFC powerhouses renew acquaintances on NBC in one whopper of an NFL Kickoff Game, which officially begins the Chiefs’ quest for an unprecedented Super Bowl title three-peat and offers the Ravens a quick opportunity to avenge quite possibly the most bitter defeat in franchise history.

Baltimore appeared primed to end Kansas City’s run of dominance after claiming the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed and getting last season’s conference championship game on its home turf. But a masterful defensive game plan and yet another vintage postseason performance from both Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce enabled the unflappable Chiefs to reign supreme once again, and leave Jackson with the unwanted distinction of being the only two-time league MVP quarterback who’s never reached a Super Bowl.

After following up that 17-10 win in Baltimore by squeaking by the San Francisco 49ers in an instant overtime classic to secure the franchise’s third Lombardi Trophy in five years, the Chiefs are openly embracing the challenge of attempting to become the first team ever to win three consecutive Super Bowls.

And with just about all of the band back together, the Chiefs just might be able to make that dream come true. While lockdown cornerback L’Jarius Sneed was traded for cap-compliance reasons, the rest of a core led by Mahomes, Kelce and game-wrecking defensive tackle Chris Jones remains intact. Same goes for a proven coaching staff headed by a pair of all-time-great in-game technicians in Andy Reid and Jackson’s biggest nemesis over the years, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.

Our projection model agrees with the rather obvious suggestion that the Chiefs are the best bets to win it all again. It gives Kansas City a 13.1% chance of seizing another championship entering this NFL season, with only the 49ers possessing a higher probability.

Baltimore enters 2024 with a few more question marks, with the offensive line fielding three new and inexperienced starters and the defense replacing a few key contributors from last season’s fearsome unit.

The most significant loss may have come on the sidelines, however, with defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald now the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks after skillfully directing a group that led the NFL in sacks (60), takeaways (31, tied for first) and scoring defense (16.5 points allowed per game) while finishing fourth in our EVE (efficiency vs. expected) ratings last season.

Taking Macdonald’s place will be former understudy Zach Orr, a 32-year-old former Ravens linebacker who’ll immediately step into a true coming-of-age moment when he matches wits with a future Hall of Fame coach and quarterback with 100 million or so people watching his every move.

How’s that for a first assignment as an NFL play-caller?

The Ravens do still have unquestionably the best player of the 2023 regular season in Jackson, and that alone makes them one of the most formidable obstacles on the Chiefs’ three-peat path. Baltimore has the largest projected win total (11.0) in the AFC, according to our model, and the third-highest chance of winning the Super Bowl at 11.3%.

Now, we can’t tell you for sure whether any A-list celebrities will be patrolling a luxury suite above GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium come Thursday night, but we can at least offer some things to keep an eye out for in this marquee matchup between two of the NFL’s premier teams – which also happen to be two of the league’s best in season openers in recent years.

BEST NFL WEEK 1 RECORDS SINCE 2016

Kansas City Chiefs (7-1)
Baltimore Ravens (7-1)
Philadelphia Eagles (7-1)
Las Vegas Raiders (6-2)
Los Angeles Rams (6-2)

The Chiefs did come up short in last year’s Kickoff Game against a Detroit Lions team that turned out to be pretty darned good, but had won eight consecutive openers prior to that defeat. The Ravens are an impressive 12-4 in Week 1 games during John Harbaugh’s long and successful coaching tenure.

This is the top-ranked game on the Week 1 slate, per SmartRatings. The excitement model is powered by complex algorithms that are predicated upon six primary variables: pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz.

Can Lamar Jackson Finally Solve KC’s Defense?

Though Jackson has been a matchup nightmare for nearly every opponent over the course of his brilliant career, the Chiefs are one that has been the kryptonite to the Ravens’ Superman.

Counting the 2023 AFC championship game, Jackson has faced Kansas City four times since Spagnuolo took over as defensive coordinator in 2019. Three of those games were Baltimore losses, and its franchise quarterback’s composite numbers over those outings pale in comparison to what he’s done to the rest of the league.

Jackson’s struggles against Kansas City were most pronounced back in January, when the Chiefs successfully made the 2023 NFL MVP uncomfortable all afternoon long by routinely shutting down passing lanes and pressuring him into quick decisions and too many off-target throws.

He finished the day with a lackluster 54.1% completion rate (58.8% adjusted) with less than 62% of his adjusted attempts deemed catchable.

While clearly not a performance up to his lofty standards, it’s a bit unfair to put the Ravens’ offensive problems in the AFC title game squarely on Jackson, as a closer breakdown shows he didn’t get a whole lot of support from either his teammates or a puzzling game plan by coordinator Todd Monken that’s been rightfully called into question.

Jackson threw to an open man on just 73.5% of his attempts that day as the Chiefs rendered any Baltimore wide receiver not named Zay Flowers into a non-factor. Kansas City was especially dominant defending the slot, with All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie allowing a burn and an open receiver on only one of five targets for the game.

Having Mark Andrews on the field for only 18 plays in the AFC championship also didn’t help Jackson’s cause. The difference-making tight end was still limited by a serious ankle injury at the time, and there’s ample evidence to support the claim that the Ravens’ passing attack produces at an optimum level when he’s healthy and in the lineup.

Ravens Player Projections

Lamar Jackson: 22.8 of 34.8 for 251.0 yards with 1.4 TDs and 0.4 INTs; 57.2 rushing yards
Derrick Henry: 14.8 rushes for 76.0 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
Zay Flowers: 5.3 receptions for 58.0 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
Rashod Bateman: 3.1 receptions for 36.6 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
Mark Andrews: 4.2 receptions for 56.2 yards with 0.4 touchdowns

Baltimore led the NFL in open percentage (84.7) from Weeks 1-9 of last season, a big factor in Jackson completing an excellent 71.5% of his passes over that span. With Andrews out for six of the team’s final nine games (including playoffs), the Ravens’ open rate from Week 10 on dipped to 77.9% (16th in the NFL during that time frame) and Jackson’s completion percentage was a more ordinary 61.6 for that period.

Jackson’s one win over Kansas City occurred in 2021, a 36-35 comeback victory fueled by 251 rushing yards put up by the Ravens. Jackson accounted for 107 of those by himself, with nearly all of that total coming on designed runs.

Baltimore managed just 81 yards on the ground in last season’s AFC title game, mainly because it never truly committed to running the ball at any point. The Ravens ran only nine true running plays the entire game and just six of those were handoffs to running backs, a one-dimensional strategy that played right into the hands of a Kansas City defense that emphasizes slowing down the pass.

Expect the running backs to be considerably more involved for the underdogs in this rematch, especially with Derrick Henry now on the Ravens’ roster. Baltimore deliberately reduced Jackson’s usage as a runner last season to lessen the chances of its superstar sustaining another devastating injury like the ones that cut short his 2021 and 2022 campaigns, so it’s imperative the offense contains a viable complement to still one of the league’s most dangerous scrambling quarterbacks.

Henry should be able to still be that guy even with the considerable wear and tear he’s endured on his now 30-year-old body – the dreaded age for NFL running backs – though the Purple Flock shouldn’t be expecting a reoccurrence of the unstoppable ball-carrying force he was during his heydays with the Tennessee Titans.

There’s indeed been a decline in Henry’s play since his brilliant 2020 season in which he rushed for over 2,000 yards and was named NFL Offensive Player of the Year, though that evident and unsurprising drop-off still isn’t anything to be too alarmed over.

His yards after contact rates for both last season and the past three still hover around league average and compare similarly to who he’s replacing as the Ravens’ primary running back, Gus Edwards.

And although Henry displayed a lack of elusiveness in his final run as a Titan – his missed/broken tackle per touch average of .084 was the lowest of 37 backs with 150 or more carries in 2023 – Edwards also emphasized power over shiftability as a capable north-south foil to Jackson and Baltimore’s speedier backs.

Henry may not be elite anymore, but he doesn’t have to be in an offense in which he’s no longer the focal point. Even if the Ravens end up getting a slightly older, slightly more expensive version of Edwards, it should help ease the burden on Jackson.

Can the Chiefs Bring the Big Play Back?

The defense was sensational all throughout the Chiefs’ latest march to a title, and it needed to be as well to help pick up an offense that could be best characterized as merely good enough.

Mahomes’ 6.83 air yards per pass attempt in 2023 was the lowest of his six seasons as a full-time starter and among the lowest of any No. 1 quarterback in the league, a byproduct of a passing game that’s yet to replace the explosiveness it lost after trading premier receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins two years ago.

The deep ball was virtually a non-existent element of last season’s offense, with Mahomes connecting on just 29.3% (17 of 58) throws of 21 or more air yards with a mere one touchdown and a 47.0 passer rating that lied in Bailey Zappe/P.J. Walker territory.

As the chart below shows, the Chiefs annually ranked among the NFL leaders in touchdown passes of at least 21 air yards from 2018-21, when Hill was still around to stretch opposing defenses to the limit.

Mahomes never had a passer rating below 96.8 on long-distance throws in any of the five previous seasons, so there’s reason to believe last year’s poor numbers were either an aberration or were caused by an insufficient supporting cast.

The front office is banking on the latter, as the Chiefs made it a top offseason priority to inject some needed speed and playmaking ability to the receiving corps with the additions of fleet-footed onetime Raven Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy, who set an NFL combine record by running the 40-yard dash in a blistering 4.21 seconds.

Part of that experiment figures to be tested right away. With Brown set to miss the opener due to a dislocated shoulder he sustained early in the preseason, Worthy looks to be line to see plenty of snaps and potentially a prominent role in his NFL debut.

And the former University of Texas standout could be up to the challenge based on his limited preseason work. Worthy was targeted deep three times in Kansas City’s Aug. 17 exhibition against the Lions and came down with two of those throws, one resulting in a 39-yard gain and the other a 22-yard touchdown.

Chiefs Player Projections

Patrick Mahomes: 24.9 of 40.0 for 272.6 yards with 1.9 touchdowns and 0.9 interceptions
Isiah Pacheco: 16.4 rushes for 67.6 yards with 0.6 touchdowns
Rashee Rice: 5.4 catches for 69.9 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
Xavier Worthy: 2.9 receptions for 34.4 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
Travis Kelce: 4.8 receptions for 52.2 yards with 0.4 touchdowns

The Chiefs’ offense could be downright scary again should Worthy immediately be able to provide the viable downfield threat it too often lacked last season, as it should offer more room for Mahomes’ preferred underneath options of Kelce, Rashee Rice and possibly the back-in-the-fold JuJu Smith-Schuster to operate.

And it’s not as if any of them really need the extra help.

The Ravens had no answer for Kelce in the AFC title game, as the future Hall of Fame tight end caught all 11 of his targets for 116 yards and a touchdown to further enhance his standing as one of the NFL’s most legendary postseason performers.

Rice is coming off an impactful rookie campaign in which he produced 79 catches, 938 yards and seven touchdowns while immediately filling the role previously held by Smith-Schuster, who led all wideouts with at least 50 targets in burn rate (73.7%) as a Chief during the 2022 regular season. The veteran is now back in Kansas City following a forgettable one-year stop in New England marred by injuries and far less stable quarterback play than Mahomes provides.

2023 WRs WITH 50+ TARGETS OPEN PERCENTAGE

Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants (90.9)
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens (86.1)
Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs (85.3)
Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers (84.7)
Tank Dell, Houston Texans (84.0)

The 2023 Chiefs proved they can still win with an offense that clicked sporadically, though they left little room for error with their final three postseason victories coming by a combined margin of 13 points.

Assuming the defense can at least come close to operating at last season’s high level, a historic third straight Super Bowl victory seems well within reach if the big plays that were bountiful during Mahomes’ best years become a thing once again.

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What to Watch for in the Opener