UFC Vegas 93 main card odds, breakdowns and predictions | X-Factor

This weekend (Sat., June 15, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns home to UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 93. Alas, we’re back in the Apex, and it’s a particularly uninspired affair. The main event is a fun: Alex Perez’s recent knockout win over Matheus Nicolau reintroduces him as a contender, and Tatsuro Taira may be Japan’s best hope for a UFC champion. Injuries devastated much of the remaining card, however, so it really feels like a dozen “Prelim” fights leading up to that Flyweight headliner.

All the same, let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the main event:

Middleweight: Ikram Aliskerov (-900) vs. Antonio Trocoli (+600)

Best Win for Aliskerov? Warlley Alves For Trocoli? Wendell Oliveira
Current Streak: Aliskerov has won two in a row inside the UFC, whereas Trocoli debuts having won three in a row
X-Factor: Trocoli is a short-notice replacement opponent
How these two match up: It’s not the original match up, but it should be fun!

A lot of people are very excited about Aliskerov, and it’s not hard to see why. A Combat Sambo champion who keeps knocking people out and has only ever lost to Khamzat Chimaev? That’s an easy sell! Of course, he doesn’t have any particularly great wins yet, but there’s something to be said for steamrolling solid competition.

Brazil’s Trocoli is a longtime veteran and product of Contenders Series. He’s won most of his fights via submission, and the 6’5” “Malvado” has fought all the way from Welterweight to 205 pounds in his 11-year professional career.

It’s tough to say Trocoli scoring the mega upset here. He’s a reasonably skilled fighter, but he doesn’t have a clear path to the takedown, so any possible jiu-jitsu edge is meaningless. Most likely, he’s forced to strike with Aliskerov, and it ends in similar fashion to Aliskerov’s previous UFC victories: first-round knockout.

Prediction: Aliskerov via knockout

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Featherweight: Timothy Cuamba (-205) vs. Lucas Almeida (+170)

Best Win for Cuamba? Mateo Vogel For Almeida? Mike Trizano
Current Streak: Cuamba recently lost his UFC debut, whereas Almeida lost two straight
X-Factor: Almeida’s defense isn’t great
How these two match up: It should be a solid scrap!

As is so often the case, we’re looking at a fight between Contenders Series pickups. Cuamba is a fleet-footed striker, capable of timing sneaky high kicks and using his movement to set up combinations. He’s not a huge hitter or particularly high-volume, but he’s crafty. Almeida, conversely, is very much a Brazilian Muay Thai fighter. He attacks with the classic combinations, and he can certainly do major damage if he can build up his offense.

What we have here is a match up between two fighters I’m uncertain can do much to capitalize on the other’s flaws. Cuamba’s movement-based kickboxing style should be a huge problem for Almeida’s more stationary Muay Thai, but does he hit hard enough to really capitalize on Almeida’s defensive woes? Conversely, Cuamba is low volume and vulnerable against the fence, but does it matter if Almeida cannot track him down?

As such, I’m not expecting a huge performance from either man. It’s probably a competitive decision in which neither is fully able to get their game rolling. In that case, I’ll take the younger and more athletic fighter.

Prediction: Cuamba via decision

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Bantamweight: Miles Johns (-122) vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade (+102)

Best Win for Johns? Cody Gibson For de Andrade? Marlon Vera
Current Streak: Both won their last bout
X-Factor: De Andrade is 38 years old
How these two match up: Experience Bantamweight scraps are always fun.

Johns is a wrestler first and foremost, but he’s far from one-note. He also has serious power in his hands, and he’s proven himself comfortable in a brawl. De Andrade, conversely, is a brawler first and foremost, but he also has other skills! The muscled Brazilian is a powerhouse striker who explodes into every strike, for better or worse.

Historically, dragging de Andrade down to the canvas is not the way to defeat him. His athleticism could fade at any point given his age, but he’s generally too strong to contain on the floor. Instead, most of his losses come to sharper strikers, opponents who can punish de Andrade’s brawling habits.

Is Johns that guy? He’s a good enough wrestler to score the occasional takedown, but he probably winds up in the kind of brawl de Andrade loves. If both are standing in front of each other, whipping power punches, I like the experience and raw power of Andrade to win the day.

He sprawls-and-brawls his way to a tight decision win.

Prediction: Andrade via decision

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Flyweight: Asu Almabaev (-535) vs. Jose Johnson (+400)

Best Win for Almabaev? Ode Osbourne For Johnson? Chad Anheliger
Current Streak: Almabaev is 2-0 inside the UFC, while Johnson won his last bout
X-Factor: This is Johnson’s first bout at 125 lbs.
How these two match up: Tatsuro Taira isn’t the only top Flyweight prospect on the way.

Kazakhstan’s Almabaev is a takedown machine. Wrestling and top control are pretty much the entirety of his game, as his stand up skills are more enthusiasm than technique. Still, who knows just how far an excellent wrestling game can carry him? Johnson, meanwhile, is still searching for consistency inside the Octagon. He’s a rangy striker, standing 6’ even, and is able to pick opponents apart at range given the opportunity.

Unfortunately, Johnson’s defense — both in regards to takedowns and combinations — isn’t great. He tends to just shell up. If Almabaev flashes a big overhand or something similar, the opening for him to latch onto Johnson’s hips will be there. Johnson is quite good at scrambling back up, but we’ve seen Almabaev prove himself relentless in hanging onto the waist and mat returning his opponents as often as necessary.

A wrestling showcase sounds likely. Given that Johnson is way too tall for Flyweight, I’m guessing his gas tank gives out halfway through the fight, and Almabaev scores his second UFC finish as well.

Prediction: Almabaev via submission

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Bantamweight: Garrett Armfield (-180) vs. Brady Hiestand (+150)

Best Win for Armfield? Brad Katona For Hiestand? Danaa Batgerel
Current Streak: Both men won their last two bouts
X-Factor: Can Hiestand handle the pace of Armfield?
How these two match up: More Bantamweight action is always a good thing.

Armfield is a really slick boxer. He throws punches in combination with good accuracy and overall sharpness, and he does so at a very high rate. His willingness to prolong exchanges can get him taken down occasionally, but solid scrambling usually returns him to his feet before long. The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) runner-up Hiestand is an aggressive young athlete. He chases the takedown hard, and if able to gain top position, he’s general able to turn that control into serious damage.

In a fight where takedown offense vs. defense is likely the deciding factor, it’s very helpful that the striker (Armfield) just faced a very talented wrestler in Brad Katona. In his last bout, Armfield was very successfully able to repel Katona’s constant takedown attempts and make the most of his time on the feet, landing the cleaner shots across 15 minutes.

Hiestand is a bit more powerful outright than Katona, but on the whole, I’m expecting a similar performance. Hiestand is not good enough at mixing his power punching with his wrestling to really throw off Armfield’s boxing, so most likely, the sharper striker lands the better shots and edges out another decision.

Prediction: Armfield via decision