UFC Vegas 100 main card odds, breakdowns and predictions | X-Factor

This weekend (Sat., Nov. 9, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns home to UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 100. I owe my readers an apology: last week, I was optimistic that UFC Edmonton would be a good card, better than the average “Fight Night” event. Turns out, it was worse! Subsequently, retreating back to the familiar embrace of the UFC Apex and Neil Magny’s clinch feels right. Surely, it has to be an improvement from last week?!?

Let’s dig into all the co-main card fights leading up to the main event:

Women’s Strawweight: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+330) vs. Denise Gomes (-425)

Best Win for Kowalkiewicz? Rose Namajunas For Gomes? Yazmin Jauregui
Current Streak: Kowalkiewicz lost her last bout, whereas Gomes won her last fight
X-Factor: Kowalkiewicz is 15 years old
How these two match up: I’m expecting a bit of a slugfest.

Kowalkiewicz has been in the game a long time, fighting for the title way back in 2016. A five-fight losing streak from 2018-2021 seemed to signal the end of her fighting career, but she’s since rebounded by winning four of her last five. Kowalkiewicz is solid everywhere, but her best attribute is her nasty clinch work.

At 24 years of age, Gomes is a standout prospect with a good amount of experience. She’s clearly a top-tier athlete, and she pairs that speed and power with natural aggression and a mean overhand.

This is a classic case of skill and experience vs. youth and athleticism. Kowalkiewicz is the better technical fighter, and she has more avenues to victory. I could see the Polish scrapper landing lots of kicks at distance, working her foe over from the double-collar tie, or even winning the wrestling battle. Conversely, Gomes wins by hitting her frequently with power punches. She’s stopped six of her nine career wins in such fashion.

It’s been a long time, but the best comparison that comes to mind is Kowalkiewicz vs. Jessica Andrade. Like “Bate Estaca,” Gomes won’t be forced to deal with a huge reach and range disadvantage. Instead, she’ll be trying to punch her way through clinch attempts, which feels manageable given her speed advantage.

Likely, Kowalkiewicz gets a taste of her foe’s power and grows a little less aggressive.

Prediction: Gomes via decision

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Bantamweight: Ricky Turcios (+225) vs. Bernardo Sopaj (-278)

Best Win for Turcios? Brady Hiestand For Sopaj? Geovane Vargas
Current Streak: Both men lost their last bout
X-Factor: Sopaj has the power advantage
How these two match up: Bantamweight fights always deliver.

The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) champion Turcios has been fighting for a long time. A jiu-jitsu black belt with a high-volume stand up attack, he’s a veteran at drawing opponents into the kind of scrappy brawls that he thrives in. Sopaj, conversely, is much less of a known quantity at the moment. He’s definitely a crisp striker with sneaky power, but there are still unknowns about how the rest of his game holds up at the UFC level.

I have known Turcios for many years and seen him play spoiler quite a few times, all the way back to his 2016 Bellator upset over Steve Garcia (who is currently running roughshod over the Featherweight ranks). There’s a reason he won TUF: it takes a higher level of skill and experience to avoid the crazy style Turcios brings to the cage than people realize.

Sopaj might have clean boxing, but that’s less likely to matter when the two are trading kicks, clinch positions, and rolling all over the canvas. That’s where pace and high-level experience come into play, and “Pretty Ricky” can pull ahead midway through the second.

Prediction: Turcios via decision

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Middleweight: Gerald Meerschaert (-290) vs. Reinier de Ridder (+235)

Best Win for Meerschaert? Edmen Shahbazyan For de Ridder? Aung La Nsang
Current Streak: Meerschaert has won two straight, while de Ridder debuts having won his last bout
X-Factor: Potential UFC jitters for de Ridder
How these two match up: If these two expert grapplers end up in a striking match, I’m going to be upset.

“GM3” is the perfect opponent for de Ridder’s UFC debut, because he’s well accustomed to playing spoiler. How many fights has the submission ace won as underdog? How many late round comebacks? Meerschaert doesn’t give up on himself, and his willingness to endure bad positions and big punches results in a finish victory more often than not.

De Ridder is a former two-division One champion, making him the most high-profile Middleweight signing in recent years. A Judoka and jiu-jitsu black belt, de Ridder excels on the floor and has finished 15 of his 17 victories.

I don’t think de Ridder has UFC championship potential, but I do buy into the idea that he can be a ranked Middleweight. Meerschaert, meanwhile, is consistently stranded just outside those ranks as a result of his lacking defense and generally slow movements. The gap in athleticism is enough that I think de Ridder will be able to find his takedowns, preventing Meerschaert’s sneakily dangerous kickboxing from heating up.

Prediction: de Ridder via decision

Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images

Women’s Strawweight: Luana Pinheiro (+260) vs. Gillian Robertson (-325)

Best Win for Pinheiro? Michelle Waterson-Gomez For Robertson? Cortney Casey
Current Streak: Pinheiro has lost two in a row, while Robertson has win two straight
X-Factor: Who wins the wrestling battle?
How these two match up: Once more, I hope the good grapplers spend this fight grappling.

Pinheiro is a Judo specialist, which equates to a knack for clinch throws and solid top control. Her striking is thoroughly okay, just like Robertson. “The Savage” is one of the division’s best top players and has actually holds the record in the 115-pound class for most submission victories.

Robertson fights are generally simply enough to predict. If she can take down her opponent, she wins the fight. If not, it usually goes poorly. The only exception here is that I’m not actually sure Pinheiro is any better on the feet — they’re both fairly wooden and very much prefer to wrestle.

Robertson will have a size advantage here, and she’s much more dangerous on the mat. Even if she’s on the wrong side of the takedown early, she can likely scramble her way into top position at some point. When that happens, the dynamic shifts instantly, because Robertson is going to make her moments count.

Painfully.

Prediction: Robertson via submission