UFC Denver: Best betting props, parlays and picks | Namajunas vs. Cortez

UFC Denver takes place this weekend (Sat., July 13, 2024) inside Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The high altitude venue will host former two-time women’s Strawweight champion, Rose Namajunas, taking on Tracy Cortez (who is coming in on short notice for Maycee Barber) in the main event. The co-main for this one is Santiago Ponzinibbio versus Muslim Salikhov. There’s also Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva (who fought two weeks ago).

The “Prelims” are headlined by Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Fatima Kline. The early fights also include Joshua Van vs. Charles Johnson and Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova.

Let’s checkout the moneylines on “Namajunas vs. Cortez” and all the other bouts on the card …

UFC Denver Main Card Money Line Odds

Rose Namajunas (-180) vs. Tracy Cortez (+180)

This card was built around Namajunas, a former two-time Strawweight champion. Initially we were going to see her against magical amulet proponent (Barber). That would have been an excellent match-up that could have answered lots of questions in the Flyweight division, including whether Namajunas (at 32) was still a force and potential title challenger and whether Barber (on a six-fight win streak) is ready to graduate from pretender to contender.

This bout would have also featured two women who are based in Colorado and are very familiar with Denver’s altitude (5,280 ft. above sea level) — Namajunas is based in Arvada (5,525 ft.) and Barber fights out of Greeley (4,675 ft.). However, an injury to Barber means we have Cortez — out of Scottsdale, Ariz. (2,165 ft.) — flown in as a replacement.

Scottsdale isn’t San Diego, granted. But, Cortez having less time to acclimatize to Denver’s altitude might be the telling factor in this fight (and many others on this card). I don’t want to suggest that altitude is the main factor for all these fights. But, we can’t discount it and we’ve seen plenty of fights in Denver where one or both fighters seem to gas out quickly and can’t summon up the strength to put on an exciting fight (or one that would elicit a finish).

Namajunas comes into this fight after a five-round decision win over Amanda Ribas (check out the highlights here) in March. Namajunas won via unanimous decision, but she didn’t have it all her way with Ribas. Indeed, Ribas was able to land a lot of punches on Namajunas (83) and even score four takedowns. Namajunas enjoyed five times as much control time as Ribas did, though, thanks to her ability to get on top of Ribas and hold her down.

Cortez has a high motor and is relentless with both her striking and pressure takedown game. That has seen her rack up six UFC wins in a row (including her Contender Series win over Mariya Agapova (who features in the “Prelims”). Cortez joined UFC in 2019 after a split decision win over Erin Blanchfield in Invicta.

Despite her win streak and her bettering Namajunas in some significant stats (significant strikes landed, striking accuracy, takedown average, takedown defense), Cortez is the slight underdog here. I think a lot of that is because of the situation around the fight; the short notice aspect plus the elevation and the fact Cortez has never fought for five rounds.

To pick Cortez here I think you have to believe she can stop Namajunas within the first few rounds. I personally don’t see her being able to keep up over a five round fight given the factor’s we’ve already discussed, especially if she has to carry Namajunas for most of the fight.

Cortez’s only knockout win is from Combate in 2018 when she fought someone who was 1-0. The only time Namajunas has been knocked out was due to a slam (remember this?). Cortez’s only submission win was in 2018 against a woman who is currently 3-5 with three of her losses being by submission. Namajunas’ only submission loss was to Carla Esparza on the season finale of The Ultimate Fighter 20.

I just don’t see Cortez being able to keep up in this fight. I think she’ll have some success early on, but Namajunas will be able to smother her and drag her into the proverbial deep waters on route to a decision win.

Pick: Rose Namajunas via unanimous decision

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Santiago Ponzinibbio (-205) vs. Muslim Salikhov (+170)

Again, I don’t think elevation is the only factor at play on this card. But, it’s an interesting variable we should consider. In that interest I’ll be sharing the elevation levels for each of the places these fighters are training in. Though, there’s no way to know exactly what kind of elevation training these guys have done leading up to this. In this match-up, Santiago Ponznibbio has the elevation disadvantage with training out of La Plata, Argentina (85 ft.). Muslim Salikhov fights out of Buynaksk, Dagestan (1,607 ft.). Both these guys might struggle up in Denver, though.

This isn’t that thrilling of a co-main event. I wish that was surprising, but that just seems the order of business now, even when UFC takes the show out of the APEX.

Ponzinibbio is 2-4 in his last six and hasn’t looked the same since a bone and blood infection kept him out of action for three years and almost cost him his career (and life). During that run he starched Alex Morono (see it here) and took a decision over Miguel Baeza. Given those guys’ last appearances, that doesn’t feel that impressive. Ponzinibbio’s losses are respectable, though. He was badly beaten by Kevin Holland in April (see that KO here), but his other losses were split decisions to Michel Pereira and Geoff Neal. Prior to those he was KO’d by Li Jingliang, in his first bout since returning from that injury lay-off.

Salikhov is 3-3 in his last six and is coming off a knockout loss to Randy Brown in March (see it here). He was also stopped by Li Jingliang. His wins are over Andre Fialho, Francisco Trinaldo and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.

These two have a combined age of 77, with Salikhov the slightly older man at 40-years-old.

I think this could be a real slog to get through. I favor Ponzinibbio in this match-up since he’s not quite 40 and he has a slight reach advantage. It won’t be easy or very impressive from him, though. I think Salikhov will be able to land punches on him, but I think he’ll do it at a slower clip than Ponznibbio and he won’t have the energy needed for a knockout blow.

Pick: Santiago Ponzinibbio via unanimous decision

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Drew Dober (-110) vs. Jean Silva (-110)

This should be fun. Drew Dober is a Denver boy so no worries about altitude for him. Jean Silva has been parachuted into the mountains after his stunning uppercut victory over Charles Jourdain at UFC 303. Silva is from Sao Paulo (2,493 ft.) and I doubt he’s had much time to acclimatize to Colorado in the past two weeks.

I would be more worried about Silva’s conditioning if he wasn’t built to finish fights quickly. The bookies clearly agree that the mountain air (or lack thereof) won’t hamper Silva too badly. He’s in a pick ‘em here with Dober, despite coming in on short notice (in place of Mike Davis).

This fight has “Fight of the Night” written all over it. We know Dober can throw down in an entertaining brawl and, so far, Silva looks to have a fun and funky style that will produce lots of knockouts in the Octagon.

I do worry that Silva’s cruising and goofing might not work on someone who isn’t as tentative as Jourdain was at UFC 303. But if Silva is able to land punches on Dober, I do think they will leave a mark. Dober will take a hit to land one and I don’t think that’s a good idea against Silva. Silva has shown pure stopping power, albeit in a small sample size. Dober is famed for a tough chin, but that can only last so long (as evidenced by his TKO loss to Matt Frevola last year).

I hope recency bias isn’t getting the best of me here, but I like Silva to continue the Fighting Nerds’ win streak and finish an overzealous Dober with a brutal counter shot.

Pick: Jean Silva via KO, round 1

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Gabriel Bonfim (-340) vs. Ange Loosa (+270)

Gabriel Bonfim is the big favorite here. And I can see why. Bonfim was surprised last time out with a Nicolas Dalby knee to the face (see that TKO here), but he’s looked a terrifying prospect up until that point. Dalby is one of the toughest underdogs in the sport, so I don’t judge Bonfim too harshly for being stunned by the “Great Dane.” Prior to that loss he had all submissions in his UFC career, including a mounted guillotine over Mounir Lazzez (see it here).

Ange Loosa is yet to make any waves in UFC. He lost his Contender Series bout in 2021 (to Jack Della Maddalena, though) and needed to beat up John Howard (remember him?) in XMMA to earn his call-up back to UFC. In proper UFC action he’s lost to Mounir Lazzez via decision and taken decision wins over AJ Fletcher and Rhys McKee. Last time out he fought to a no contest with Bryan Battle due to an eye poke (see it here, along with the near brawl that followed).

Loosa is a volume striker, but that’s not lead to any stoppage wins in UFC. The only stoppages on his record are from the Swiss regional scene. I don’t believe his striking will be enough of a deterrent for Bonfim here.

Loosa has good takedown defense on paper (90 percent), but he’s yet to face a good takedown artist in his career. I think Bonfim should be able to get him to the ground and work his submission game with few impediments.

Also, Bonfim trains in Brasilia (1,172 m). Loosa fights out of Kill Cliff MMA in Deerfield Beach, Fla. (3.96 m).

Pick: Gabriel Bonfim via submission, round 1

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Julian Erosa (+170) vs. Christian Rodriguez (-205)

There’s no real advantage for either guy when it comes to elevation here. Julian Erosa’s Yakima, Wash., is 325 m above sea level. Christian Rodriguez’s Milwaukee, Wisc., is 188 m.

Rodriguez is on a nice run, having beaten Raul Rosas Jr. last year and followed that up with wins over Cameron Saaiman and Isaac Dulgarian. That run would look fantastic if he hadn’t missed weight for the Rosas and Saaiman fights (both at Bantamweight). This is his second bout at Featherweight so I don’t expect him to have any issues on the scales.

The veteran Erosa will be making his 15th walk to the Octagon on Saturday (not including a Contender Series appearance). He choked out Ricardo Ramos in March, after getting badly hurt (see it here). That followed (technical) knockout losses to Fernando Padilla (see that early stoppage here) and Alex Caceres. Those two losses make it seven (technical) knockout losses in Erosa’s career. The stoppages count for 64 percent of his professional losses, so we’re right to question Erosa’s chin and durability.

Rodriguez isn’t likely to expose Erosa’s chin. Only three of his eleven wins have come via stoppages due to strikes. Rodriguez may not have a lot of power, but he is composed and clinical. He’s also defensively sound. He should be able to hit Erosa often and avoid any of Erosa’s home run swings.

Erosa is most dangerous on the ground, but Rodriguez is no slouch there either. Rodriguez probably isn’t scared of going to ground with Erosa, but he really doesn’t need to go there to get the win here. He’s got good takedown defense, so it might be hard for Erosa to force this fight to the mat if and when he gets in trouble standing.

Pick: Christian Rodriguez via unanimous decision

Photo by Al Powers/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Abdul Razak Alhassan (-162) vs. Cody Brundage (+136)

Abdul Razak Alhassan stormed onto the scene all the way back in 2016 with a devastating knockout of Conor McGregor’s buddy, Charlie Ward. In the next few years he blew away Sabah Homasi and Niko Price, too.

Alhassan was forced into a hiatus for reasons (over which he was acquitted). And since he’s returned he’s not looked the same. He’s been a walking target for some heavy hitters in the division, being knocked out cold by Khaos Williams (see it here) and choked out by Joe Pyfer (see that here). He has scored some stoppages over Alessio Di Chirico (via this headkick) and Claudio Ribeiro. However, he turns 39 next month, so don’t expect any more upside to come from him.

Cody Brundage was served up to Bo Nickal in April. Prior to that he slammed out Zach Reese (see it here) and won via DQ against Jacob Malkoun. Stats wise Brundage isn’t far away from Razak Alhassan in the striking department. He lands far fewer sig. strikes (1.62 vs. 3.37), but he also absorbs less, too (2.3 vs. 3.99). However, it’ll be his takedowns that win him this fight.

Brundage averages 2.33 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 52 percent accuracy. Razak Alhassan has a 50 percent takedown defense. In his loss to Joaquin Buckley, Razak Alhassan was taken down five times (on eight attempts). That 62 percent takedown success was far higher than Buckley’s average (44 percent). So, I think Brundage shouldn’t have too much trouble taking Razak Alhassan down and holding him down.

Brundage is also based in Colorado (Englewood, Colo., is 1,637 m above sea level). Razak Alhassan is coming from Arlington, Texas (184 m). The soon to be 40-year-old Razak Alhassan might get pretty tired if he has to carry Brundage’s weight for a round. I think there is a good chance Brundage is able to ride Razak Alhassan for most the fight and score a ground-and-pound technical knockout once his opponent is too exhausted to fight back.

Pick: Cody Brundage via TKO, round 3

UFC Denver ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images

Jasmine Jasudavicius (+102) vs. Fatima Kline (-122)

Jasmine Jasudavicius was supposed to be fighting Viviane Araujo here. Fatima Kline comes in on less than a week’s notice. Both these women live and train close to sea level. Jasudavicius is in St. Catharaines, Ontario (98 m) and Fatima Kline hails from Hyde Park, N.Y. (76 m).

Kline is the favorite here despite coming in on short notice. The oddsmakers must think this fight will be a grappling match. Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt Kline is the superior grappler, both in the gym and in grappling competition. In MMA, she’s undefeated (6-0). Last time out she defeated Andressa Romero for the Cage Fury Fighting Strawweight belt.

The 23-year-old Kline has been a big Strawweight in her young career. This fight is at Flyweight, though, so she won’t be able to size-bully her opponent here. Jasudavicius is a pinch taller and longer than her.

Jasudavicius is 35, but I think this is one of those bouts where experience helps more than it hurts. Jasudavicius doesn’t have a ton of mileage on those 35-years, either. Jasudavicius has also fought on big events against some rather well known opponents (including one half of the main event here). And she’s coming off the best win of her career, a bloody d’arce choke on Priscila Chachoeira (see it here).

Kline is coming in late, at altitude and against the best MMA fighter she’s ever faced (by a mile). I think that will be too much for her and Jasudavicius will be able to win this one rather comfortably.

Pick: Jasmine Jasudavicius via unanimous decision

Joshua Van (-205) vs. Charles Johnson (+180)

Joshua Van is 3-0 so far in his UFC career with wins over Zhalgas Zhumagulov, Kevin Borjas and Felipe Brunes (via TKO). It’s been a nightmare to get this guy booked since then. Since his win over Bunes he’s had the following fights fall through: Lucas Rocha, Sumudaerji, Tatsuro Taira, Tagir Ulanbekov. I think he’s a little fortunate that some of those didn’t happen, since a couple of those guys might have been too much too soon for him.

Charles Johnson is coming off an impressive win over Jake Hadley in May. That followed his decision win over Azat Maksum. Against Hadley, Johnson looked smooth and controlled and was able to stuff all of eleven takedowns to make sure he could keep piecing Hadley up from range.

Van will be a much more willing striker than Hadley, though. And he’s done well against strikers with longer reach than him (Brunes’ reach is just an inch shorter than Johnson’s). I agree with the oddsmakers here and think that Van’s striking (60% of 10 wins coming via K/TKO) will be too much for Johnson.

Nothing notable when it comes to altitude here. Van is from Houston, TX (15 m) and Johnson comes from St. Louis, Mo. (142 m).

Pick: Joshua Van via TKO, round 2

Luana Santos (-395) vs. Mariya Agapova (+280)

Sao Paulo’s (760 m) Luana Santos has won her first two UFC bouts, TKO’ing Juliana Miller in last August and getting a decision over Stephanie Egger a few months later (while missing weight). She’s coming down to Flyweight to meet Mariya Agapova, who trains in Coconut Creek, FL (3.96 m).

Agapova’s claims to fame, include losing as one of the heaviest favorites in UFC history (see it here) and a number of off field distractions, some of which lead to a rather bitter rivalry and fight with Maryna Moroz. Agapova’s distraction filled UFC career has seen her go 2-3 over the past four years.

Her most recent appearance was a 2022 loss to Gillian Robertson (who looked excellent when she overwhelmed and battered Michelle Waterson-Gomez last weekend).

Agapova seemed like an interesting prospect in Invicta, where her activity and meanness overwhelmed some opponents. At the UFC level, though, she hasn’t been able to intimidate her way into victories.

Santos is probably going to look to the takedown to secure a victory here and Agapova’s defense (47 percent) suggests that might be a winning strategy for her. If we didn’t know anything about Agapova’s struggles outside of the cage, I would say these are long odds for her. However, given the full picture I certainly can’t trust that she will be focused or capable of fighting to her full potential on Saturday.

Pick: Luana Santos via unanimous decision

Josh Fremd (-110) vs. Andre Petroski (-110)

Josh Fremd and Andre Petroski are both Pennsylvanians, with Fremd training out of Pittsburgh (373 m) and Petroski based in Springfield (74 m). Both are coming off TKO losses. Fremd was dropped with a liver shot by Roman Kopylov and Petroski was pounded out by Jacob Malkoun (see that here).

Fremd is a massive Middleweight and his reach could cause problems for Petroski (whose three pro losses are all by TKO). I think Petroski’s deficiencies on the feet are outweighed by Fremd’s deficiencies as a wrestler, though. He has a woeful 31 percent takedown defense. Petroski hits 4.32 takedowns per 15 minutes. If those stats bear out, we’ll see most of this contest on the ground.

Pick: Andre Petroski via unanimous decision

Montel Jackson (-162) vs. Da’Mon Blackshear (+136)

Two more guys from out of state here, Montel Jackson of Milwaukee, WI (188 m) and Da’Mon Blackshear who trains in Fayetteville, NC (68 m). Jackson TKO’d vet Rani Yahya in his last fight, over a year ago. That gives him a four fight winning streak, his longest streak since joining UFC in 2018.

Blackshear lost a unanimous decision to Mario Bautista in his last fight, which was almost a year ago. He’s 2-2-1 since joining the big show in 2022.

Jackson is the more polished fighter here, as evidenced by his 64 percent striking defense and his 1.38 significant strikes absorbed per minute. His strikes absorbed stat leads the Bantamweight division. Jackson also leads the division in takedown percentage with 68.8 percent. Some of this is due to Jackson’s strength of schedule, he’s been a large betting favorite in most his past match-ups. Even so, I think he will be able to avoid Blackshear on the feet and land the takedowns he needs to control this fight.

Pick: Montel Jackson via unanimous decision

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC

UFC Denver Prop Bets & Parlays

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting for this Saturday’s UFC Denver card …

Gabriel Bonfim Total Significant Strikes Landed – Under 45.4 (-115)

I think Bonfim is going to win this fight, but I don’t think he needs all those strikes to do it. I believe he can take Loosa down and finish him a submission relatively early. On the ground Bonfim will be looking for submissions and not giving up positions there to land ground and pound. You could also cash this bet if Loosa is able to rock Bonfim and put him away (just like Dalby did in Bonfim’s last fight). However, I have a feeling Bonfim will be too strong for Loosa and will have him down and tapping sometime in the first round.

Jean Silva to defeat Drew Dober via KO/TKO/DQ (+185)

If Silva’s going to win this thing it’s most likely going to be with his hands. He looked incredible against Jourdain and it just seems like there’s something in the water over at that Fighting Nerds camp. I’m pretty confident that Dober is going to fight the worst fight possible for him in being willing to exchange punches in the pocket. Once that happens, I have confidence in Silva being able to land the strike that ends this fight.

Two fight parlay: Andre Petroski to defeat Josh Fremd and Christian Rodriguez to defeat Julian Erosa (+186)

These are two of the outcomes I feel very confident in. Fremd’s takedown defense is shocking and if he’s the one being forced to put out the most energy in Denver he’s going to fade pretty quickly. And Rodriguez has multiple paths to victory open to him versus Erosa’s single path (a submission). Rodriguez is better than Erosa standing, he has good wrestling and he won’t get out-classed on the ground.

Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova – Point to be Deducted – Yes (+2000)

I was robbed by Jason Herzog at UFC Saudi Arabia a few weeks ago when a blatant fence grab from Shara Magomedov did not result in a point deduction. Well, I’m back to the well this week with another fighter who I think is primed to do something silly. Agapova has had a lot of distractions in her UFC career and she’s in desperate need of a win. That, plus the funky scenes we’ve seen in women’s MMA this year (headbutts, boob punches, etc.) and I think this is a fun dart to throw on Saturday.

UFC Denver Poll Time

Which of the earlier props and parlays do you like the look of the most?

Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Denver fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ESPN (simulcast on ESPN+) at 10 p.m. ET.

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