UFC 307 predictions, main card preview and analysis | Pereira vs Rountree Jr.

After a slam-bang weekend of overseas action, courtesy of “Moicano vs. Saint Denis” in Paris, Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will return to the pay-per-view (PPV) market for the upcoming UFC 307 mixed martial arts (MMA) extravaganza, locked and loaded for this Sat. night (Oct. 7, 2024) inside Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. Leading the charge will be the promotion’s “Golden Goose,’ Alex Pereira, as he looks for another entry into the highlight reel hall-of-fame. Hoping to play spoiler is hard-hitting “War Horse,” Khalil Rountree Jr., who knows a thing or two about starching decorated kickboxers.

Before that five-round championship showdown gets underway, newly-crowned bantamweight titleholder, Raquel Pennington, looks to spoil the return of former 135-pound champion Julianna Pena. The winner could move on to battle Kayla Harrison in early 2025, assuming the Olympic gold medalist can blast her way past veteran bantamweight Ketlen Vieira. In addition, Jose Aldo will make his Octagon return opposite red-hot Mario Bautista, while Roman Dolidze tries to win his second straight against hot-and-cold middleweight “Trailblazer” Kevin Holland, streaming live on ESPN+ PPV.

Who wins and who loses? Let’s try to figure that out below.

205 lbs.: UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Alex “Poatan” Pereira (11-2) vs. Khalil “War Horse” Rountree (13-5, 1 NC)

Alex Pereira is the star UFC needed … right when it needed him.

If you’re don’t understand why “Poatan” is getting favorable matchmaking in the form of Khalil Rountree Jr., a middling light heavyweight who’s never shot a takedown in his entire UFC career, then perhaps you don’t understand the business of prize fighting.

How many PPVs do you think Magomed Ankalaev will sell to casual fans, who (sorry, elitists) are the lifeblood of the PPV business? About as many as Merab Dvalishvili, or perhaps even less, considering Ankalaev has the personality of a carpet beetle.

Here are your current UFC champions:

Alexandre Pantoja
Merab Dvalishvili
Ilia Topuria
Islam Makhachev
Belal Muhammad
Dricus Du Plessis
Alex Pereira
Jon Jones
Zhang Weili
Valentina Shevchenko
Raquel Pennington

Brutal.

All respect due to every champion in each respective weight class, but outside of Jones, who’s only competed once over the last four years, there’s not a lot to work with here in terms of box office bucks. So yes, Pereira is getting special treatment and to be honest, he’s earned it. “Poatan” has racked up five main event title fights in less than two years and unlike some other “stars,” doesn’t let broken toes keep him off the card.

Now that we got that out of the way, let’s move on.

Pereira, 37, got off to a shaky start in his transition to light heavyweight, squeaking past Jan Blachowicz with a split decision victory at UFC 291. Then his subsequent win over Jiri Prochazka at UFC 295 was overshadowed by a possible early stoppage. What followed were two definitive finishes over Jamahal Hill (UFC 300) and Prochazka (UFC 303) to silence the critics, though “Poatan” will likely need to get past Ankalaev to be called the best fighter at 205 pounds.

There’s not a lot to deconstruct here, as Pereira is fairly one-dimensional. The former two-division kickboxing champion is a diverse striker with a monster left hand, but has the ground game of a newborn calf. You can talk about his questionable chin or his inability to stop the takedown, two valid criticisms, but if they were such liabilities, then Pereira would not be 8-1 in UFC with six brutal knockouts.

The champion is a -520 betting favorite against +390 for the challenger.

Khalil Rountree Jr. was an early favorite to win Season 23 of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) only to falter in the live finale, dropping a judges’ decision to the since-departed Andrew Sanchez. “The War Horse” has been up-and-down for most of his UFC career but is currently enjoying his most successful run to date, racking up five straight wins with four knockouts. Not to downplay those finishes but his opponents have been … not great. Karl Roberson and Chris Daukaus are a combined 0-10 across their last 10, getting finished in eight of those 10 losses. In addition, Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby have both lost four of their last six, which means his only opponent with more wins than losses during that streak was Modestas Bukauskas.

Is that our best argument for a championship upset?

Crushing Gokhan Saki deserves to be mentioned, just so long as we also mention that Pereira is four inches taller than “The Rebel” with an additional six inches in reach, huge difference makers when evaluating an all-standup affair. It also looked as though Saki spent a total of eight minutes training for that fight, based on his physique and overall disposition.

The 34 year-old Rountree Jr. is a dangerous fighter with heavy hands and fights like he’s got 24 hours to live. If I woke up on Sunday morning and read that “War Horse” scored the KO upset, I probably wouldn’t be shocked. At the same time, he’s priced accordingly on the moneyline because Pereira is the superior striker with a deeper resume. The safe pick is Pereira by knockout, who should reward the promotion for what on paper, appears to be an easy layup.

Prediction: Pereira def. Rountree Jr. by knockout

135 lbs.: UFC Bantamweight Champion Raquel “Rocky” Pennington (16-8) vs. Julianna “The Venezuelan Vixen” Pena (11-5)

Raquel Pennington is tough as nails, a grizzled veteran who can outwork most other bantamweights and walk through any and all incoming fire not launched by Amanda Nunes. Would I consider her to be elite, championship material? Probably not, but I also can’t punish “Rocky” for her strength of schedule, or lack of top tier opposition — that blame falls on the promotion. Pennington does everything good and nothing great, and to her credit, has won six straight over some pretty tough outs. My concern for this title defense, her first since outpointing Mayra Bueno Silva back in January, is how easily she’s stifled by wall-and-stall (Holly Holm at UFC 246). In addition, Pennington was effortlessly outwrestled by Jessica Andrade — a considerably smaller fighter — in their first fight at UFC 171, as well as their UFC 191 rematch.

Wrestling and wall-and-stall are the challenger’s bread-and-butter.

Not that Pena is particularly skilled in either area but what sets her apart is her insane pace and never-ending cardio. “The Venezuelan Vixen” strikes like a blindfolded six grader trying to bust open a birthday piñata and lands less strikes than she throws (47%). Again, it’s more her volume and pressure than skill, which helped topple an exhausted Amanda Nunes at UFC 269. Working against her is the fact that Pena has not competed in over two years, thanks to injuries and personal setbacks. How that affects her at age 35 is unknown, so we can only operate under the assumption that we’ll be seeing the same high-octane bantamweight we’ve been accustomed to since graduating TUF 18 more than a decade ago.

Pennington is not easily finished and holds multiple UFC records, like total strikes and significant strikes landed. But she also holds records for total fights (17), decision wins (10), and longest average fight time (4:17:33). That is why her strike count is so high — her fights carry on forever (or so it feels sometimes). I don’t expect that to change tomorrow night in “The Beehive State” as the grapple-heavy Pena pushes, pulls, and drags her way to a ho-hum sweep on the judges’ scorecards.

Prediction: Pena def. Pennington by decision

135 lbs.: Jose “Junior” Aldo (32-8) vs. Mario Bautista (14-2)

Jose Aldo fought out his UFC contract at the UFC 301 PPV earlier this year in Brazil and proved (once again) against a younger, fresher opponent that he was still a force to be reckoned with at 135 pounds. We didn’t realize what it meant at the time, but “Junior” is the only fighter in UFC history to blank Merab Dvalishvili on takedowns, leaving the future 135-pound champion 0-16 on all 16 attempts. Aldo was also the more accurate puncher during that fight but dropped the decision on volume, his only loss across his last five fights dating back to summer 2020. The knock against the former featherweight kingpin is that he hasn’t finished a fight in over five years and seems comfortable cruising to the cards, win or lose. Fortunately for Aldo, he’s facing an opponent who is coming off back-to-back decision victories over Da’Mon Blackshear and Ricky Simon. I say “fortunately” because those combatants represent the bulk of Mario Bautista’s UFC career, with all eight of his wins coming over opponents who are not ranked in the division Top 15.

This is a major step up in competition for Bautista, who is seven years younger than Aldo and competing in the prime of his MMA career. Losses to Cory Sandhagen and Trevin Jones — both finishes — stick out like a sore thumb on Bautista’s record, though you could argue they were several years prior and he’s long since improved, evidenced by six straight wins. The former Combate Global competitor is a strong offensive wrestler averaging more than two takedowns per fight. Considering how well Aldo stuffs takedowns, I’m not sure that’s going to matter much tomorrow night in Salt Lake City — though shooting for takedowns can also be used to disrupt rhythm and mess with an opponent’s timing, regardless of whether or not they land. The big concern here is Aldo’s cardio at high altitude, roughly 4,300 feet above sea level. Compounding the problem will be his cut down to 135 pounds which is doable, but certainly not easy, especially at age 38. Is that enough to pick Bautista, a -140 betting favorite? Probably not for me, but I’m expecting the same Aldo we saw at UFC 301, who may or may not show up on fight night.

Prediction: Aldo def. Bautista by decision

135 lbs.: Kayla Harrison (17-1) vs. Ketlen “Fenomeno” Vieira (14-3)

Kayla Harrison returns for her second fight under the UFC banner and it’s no secret that Harrison, a two-time Olympic gold medalist, is being positioned for the next bantamweight title shot. It almost happened back in late 2021 but Julianna Pena upset Amanda Nunes and ruined Harrison’s shot at switching teams (more on that debacle here). Harrison went back to PFL and suffered the first loss of her professional career, a unanimous decision defeat to longtime Brazilian nemesis Larissa Pacheco — an opponent Harrison already defeated twice prior to their third (and what appears to be final) meeting. There’s not much to say about Harrison that isn’t already common knowledge. The judoka is a world-class athlete who can compete for 25 minutes without batting an eyelash, is stronger than most women in her weight class, and has bear-trap grappling; meaning, once she locks on, you’re not getting out. The only knock against Harrison is her striking, which is not as bad as her detractors claim (compared to her peers) but certainly a liability in a fight against a seasoned striker.

Ketlen Vieira has two knockouts in 14 wins, so I don’t think Harrison is losing much sleep.

The Brazilian bantamweight, a talented judoka in her own right, is seated one spot above Harrison at No. 2 in the 135-pound rankings. No question Vieira could steal the next division title shot with a massive upset, I just struggle to find her path to victory. “Fenomeno” only has three losses in her professional career but all three have come within the last five years and she was finished by Irene Aldana at UFC 245. I’m not sure I want to build the case for an upset based on her ho-hum decision win over Pannie Kianzad at UFC London, which took place well over a year ago and served as her most recent UFC fight (thanks to injuries). With Harrison’s UFC debut out of the way, she’s likely to hit second gear against Vieira. I don’t want to say it’s going to be a completely one-sided fight but … wait, yes I do. It will be completely one-sided. Harrison, a -950 betting favorite, is going to mug her, slug her, and lock up a fight-ending submission, then call for a bantamweight title shot in her post-fight speech.

Prediction: Harrison def. Vieira by submission

185 lbs.: Roman “The Caucasian” Dolidze (13-3) vs. Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland (26-11-1)

Roman Dolidze jumped out to a 6-1 record in UFC and found himself as high as No. 8 in the official middleweight rankings. What followed were back-to-back losses to Marvin Vettori and Nassourdine Imavov, which cooled his momentum and booted “The Caucasian” from the division Top 10. Then came a strong performance against former light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith and Dolidze is back on everyone’s radar, though whether or not he stays there may depend on his performance against Kevin Holland at UFC 307. As it stands, the 36 year-old Georgian is a +130 underdog against -170 for “Trailblazer.”

Holland is tough to figure out. Sometimes he looks like an exceptional middleweight who can make a serious run at the top of the 185-pound division, then other times he appears to be punching the clock and phoning it in from bell to bell. The promotion loves “Trailblazer” because he’s one of the most active fighters on the roster, racking up 22 appearances over the last four years and never fighting less than three times per calendar year. His most recent appearance ended with an armbar victory over Michal Oleksiejczuk at UFC 302, marking seven straight wins by way of knockout or submission.

Expect Holland to be the busier fighter and he should make good use of his five-inch reach advantage. The equalizer in this contest will be Dolidze’s wrestling, because Holland has putrid takedown defense. Fortunately for “Trailblazer,” still just 31 years old, “The Caucasian” has been known to be a frustratingly slow starter with low output, problematic for a three-round fight against versatile combatant with an iron jaw. Unless Dolidze spams takedowns early and often, I expect Holland to style on him for a sweep across the judges’ scorecards.

Prediction: Holland def. Dolidze by decision

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 307 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining undercard balance on ESPNN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.

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