UFC 305 – Best Bets & Predictions

The UFC octagon touches down in Perth, Australia for the first time this year. The event is headlined by a middleweight championship bout between two bitter rivals as the champion, Dricus du Plessis meets the former champion, Israel Adesanya.

The co-main event sees former flyweight title challenger, Steve Erceg look to rebound from his valiant title fight loss to meet fan favourite and perennial contender, Kai Kara-France.

Elsewhere, the entire card is littered with close, competitive fights. We provide you with our best bets and predictions for UFC 305.

UFC 305 – Best Bets

Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya to go the distance

The main event in Perth will see du Plessis and Adesanya finally settle their beef inside the octagon. The two men have been going at one another since du Plessis became a contender at middleweight and the two were rumoured to meet UFC 293, however, du Plessis couldn’t make the walk. On that occasion, Adesanya put in a career worst performance, losing the belt to Sean Strickland. The American would then go on to lose to the South African at UFC 297, meaning that rather than entering the bout as the challenger, du Plessis will now face Adesnaya and walk second.

The champion’s statistics would suggest that this one could be finished early. He’s stopped five of his seven opponents in the UFC, however, Adesanya is a tough man to stop. Only one man has done so, Alex Pereira and du Plessis doesn’t hit as hard as the reigning light heavyweight champion. Neither is Stillknocks as crisp a striker as Pereira, so he shouldn’t be able to catch Adesnaya on the feet.

Adesnaya does have knockout power, finishing five of his 13 UFC wins. He’s certainly risk-averse, preferring to pop-shot his opponents from the outside, rather than put himself at risk. He may have to do so against du Plessis, however, the South African will likely be too sporadic to land on The Last Stylebender.

The main event in Perth to go 25 minutes is highly likely. Back it.

Mateusz Gamrot via Decision

Mateusz Gamrot returns to action in order to try and pick up yet another win in a stacked lightweight division. Gamer will be looking to notch his fourth straight victory, having defeated Jalin Turner, Rafael Fiziev and Rafael dos Anjos in recent times. It won’t be easy, however, as he meets The Hangman, Dan Hooker.

Hooker has put together two straight wins after a rocky patch, however, Gamrot is a tough stylistic match-up for the New Zealand native. The Polish star is known for his relentless pressure, wrestling game and willingness to see a fight out through dominant control. He lands an average of 5.28 takedowns per 15 minutes. In his last three fights, he’s got a takedown success of 13/33, proving just how hard he goes in search for the takedown.

Hooker has a good takedown defence at 80% and prefers to go to war with his opponents. Over-swinging and committing too heavily to his shots will see him taken down by Gamrot and ultimately lose the fight via decision. It’ll be a frustrating night for Hooker but a good one for the former KSW champion.

Tai Tuivasa vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik Under 1.5 Rounds

With a combined 26 knockouts of 28 combined wins, Tai Tuivasa and Jairzinho Rozenstruik always come to scrap it out. Neither man has ever shot for a takedown in the UFC and simply put, one of these men is going out cold. Under 1.5 rounds is a dead cert.

Full Card Picks

Main Card:

Adesanya via decision
Erceg via decision
Gamrot via decision
Rozenstruik Round 1 TKO
Li Jingliang Round 2 TKO

Preliminary Card:

Tafa Round 2 TKO
Ramos via decision
Santos Round 3 submission
Jenkins Round 3 TKO
Nolan Round 1 TKO
Song via decision
Aguilar Round 2 submission