Top storylines leading up to MLB Trade Deadline

This week: Tuesday’s Trade Deadline is fast approaching. So that’s the focus of this edition as we break down five fascinating dilemmas for teams and players over the next several days.

1. The Mariners need to shake it off and go for it

The Mariners are right in the thick of everything. It can be easy to forget this, as difficult as things have gotten in Seattle over the past month, with a 10-game division lead completely disappearing and the resurgent Astros jumping into first place in the American League West.

It’s pretty grim right now for a team attempting to win its first AL West title since 2001. The Mariners entered Friday having lost eight of 10 and 20 of 29, and Julio Rodríguez and J.P. Crawford are now on the injured list. Seattle has endured some pretty disappointing collapses over the past couple of decades, but this one could wind up at the top of the list.

But there is still time and, more to the point, there is still that terrific starting rotation. The Mariners have the advantage of having such a weak offense (28th in MLB in OPS and runs per game) that upgrading it should actually be pretty easy. They took the first step toward doing that on Thursday night, when they acquired Randy Arozarena from the Rays in a pre-Deadline blockbuster.

Now, the question is will they stop there? As far as first base goes, if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (the perfect fit here) isn’t available, even Josh Bell would be better than what they have at first base now. The Mariners need to be a little desperate; young pitching turns into old, injured pitching much faster than it used to, and that rotation is such a strength that they really can’t afford to waste it. J-Rod was just starting to come around when he hurt his ankle, and it appears the Mariners are going to ensure he’ll be returning to a better lineup than when he went down. The Mariners have taken a real body blow, no question. But this is still a top-shelf rotation that needs only a little support — and a little support is exactly what’s out there.

2. The Pirates’ time could be now

The one team no one will want to play in a Wild Card Series? The Pirates. Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller … that’s a pretty terrifying 1-2-3 in a best-of-three format. Because of that, it’s probably worth the Pirates being buyers. Remember, as we saw with the Mariners: Good young rotations are special and rare, and that should never be taken for granted. (Pittsburgh’s bullpen isn’t half bad either.) The Pirates have a few good hitters, namely Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz, but they have one of the weakest-hitting outfields in baseball. The good news is that there are a ton of outfielders out there. Remember what the D-backs got from Tommy Pham after the Deadline last year? The Pirates could get the same thing from the same guy (now with the White Sox) for a minimal cost in prospects. The Giants’ Michael Conforto would be great, too.

I had considered the Pirates a year or two away until their series this week against the Cardinals, one of the teams they’re fighting with for an NL Wild Card spot. The one game the Pirates lost in that series was the game Skenes pitched, but the crowd at PNC Park was downright vintage — it was loud and raucous and reminded one of the 2013 postseason, when they were so loud and crazy that they actually made Reds pitcher Johnny Cueto drop the ball on the mound. That’s what the Pirates should bet on: A crowd, and a rotation, that can elevate them — not later, but now. There isn’t a lot of talk about the Pirates buying, but they should — and they don’t even need to do a lot. A couple of solid outfielders would go a long way.

3. What’s the urgency level in the AL East?

The best division race we have is unquestionably in the AL East, where the Orioles and the Yankees — two legitimate World Series contenders loaded with superstars — are fighting it out. The winner (probably) gets a first-round bye in the postseason; the loser gets a very scary best-of-three Wild Card Series against someone like the Royals or the Red Sox. But what’s interesting about the Orioles and the Yankees leading up to the Deadline is how one team’s timeline differs so much from the other’s.

The Orioles, for all the talk about a Tarik Skubal trade and all those studs they have at Triple-A, don’t need to be in that much of a hurry. If they were to fall short this year, it would be frustrating — especially after last year’s playoff flameout — but no one would think this was some sort of pivot point for the franchise. The O’s are going to be excellent next year and for years to come; that’s what they’ve built.

The Yankees, though? Well, did you see manager Aaron Boone after the loss to the Mets on Wednesday night? Did that look like a guy who doesn’t have everything on the line this year? The Yankees are older than the Orioles, and the one young star they have, Juan Soto, could be gone after this year. They need to move now, while they can. Both these teams have needs. But the Yankees’ needs feel more urgent; they need to fill them now, and win now. Because we know the Orioles will continue to keep getting better after this year. Can we say that about the Yankees?

Last year, we finally saw what happens when Robert plays a full season: He’s an All-Star, potentially a top-20 MLB player. Robert played more than 100 games for the first time in his career — 145, actually — and he ended up getting down-ballot AL MVP votes, hitting 38 homers, stealing 20 bases and manning center field … at the age of 26. That’s superstar material right there, the sort of guy teams build around. That’s what the White Sox tried to do, of course, but the injuries always seem to get him, including this year: He has played only 48 games, thanks to a hip flexor issue at the beginning of the year. He has been healthier lately, but he hasn’t quite worked himself back up to 2023 levels.

The White Sox have Robert signed through next year with team options for 2026 and ’27, which makes him not all that scary for a potential trade. But how in the world do you value him? Does a team trade for the possibility of 2023 Robert? Or do you just treat him as a lottery ticket? There are a lot of big names on the market, but at their peak — healthy, raking, patrolling center — there may not be an actual more valuable one than someone like Robert. He’s only 27! But assuming he’s going to play at his peak this year, or next year, or maybe ever, is quite an assumption. It may require a team being desperate enough to take the risk. But the rewards could be tremendous.

5. Will there be a Jack Flaherty reunion?

Flaherty took a one-year, make-good free-agent deal from the Tigers this past offseason, and there is no question he has made good. He is having his best season since 2019, when he finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting. He’s putting up a 2.95 ERA, a career-high strikeout rate and a career-low walk rate. He is primed for a much bigger contract this offseason and may well be the top pitcher on the trade market right now. He’s a playoff starter, maybe a Game 1 playoff starter, right now.

And of course, every team needs pitching. But what’s funny is that there are two contending teams that desperately need a starting pitcher but may not be as keen to go after Flaherty. That would be his two former teams: the Cardinals and the Orioles. The reason is almost certainly emotion. The Cardinals saw the best of Flaherty back in 2019, but afterwards, they saw an inconsistent, oft-injured pitcher who was difficult to count on. And the Orioles? Well, Flaherty struggled mightily after they traded for him at last year’s Deadline, putting up a 6.75 ERA and eventually being demoted to the bullpen.

If either team traded for Flaherty this year, their fans might not be excited. But the way he’s pitching, Flaherty would help either team’s rotation right now and make it more likely that them could win its division. (For what it’s worth, a recent report indicated that Baltimore, at least, would consider a Flaherty reunion.)

Fun Series of the Weekend: Guardians at Phillies
It’s fair to say that not many people would have considered this a potential World Series matchup heading into the season, but here we are, at the last weekend before the Deadline, and we’ve got a series between the team with the best record in the NL and the team tied for the best record in the AL. This is actually a crowded weekend of intriguing series — including Dodgers-Astros, Yankees-Red Sox, Braves-Mets, Padres-Orioles and Pirates-Diamondbacks — but it’s tough to beat the best team in each league facing off.