Tigers face key decisions for 2024-25 offseason

There is excitement in Detroit.

Four months into the 2024 season, the Tigers appeared to be headed for another disappointing campaign. Following its loss on Aug. 10, Detroit was 55-63, 10 games out of an AL Wild Card spot.

Tarik Skubal’s breakout season was among the few highlights for the Tigers, who haven’t been to the postseason in a decade. Things looked bleak for Detroit, leaving president of baseball operations Scott Harris searching for answers in his second season running the club.

“I thought they were pretty good heading into the season,” an American League executive said. “Big hiccup for most of the year, but this seems like a reasonable spot for them.”

Whether the Tigers are able to chase down a postseason berth remains to be seen, but Detroit’s late-season surge has created hope in the Motor City, where manager A.J. Hinch has his team believing anything is possible.

“Late-season runs are great and show the guys are giving that extra push with a common goal of playing playoff baseball,” a National League executive said. “But I also think you have to look more holistically and determine if it’s just all clicking now and they had the pieces, or if there are other extenuating circumstances. I think it is coming together for them; it’s great if they can make that push, but certainly gives a nice look to next season that they can get there.”

What will this playoff push mean for this offseason?

Detroit cleared out its crop of impending free agents at the Trade Deadline, dealing Jack Flaherty, Mark Canha and Andrew Chafin on July 30. Infielder Trey Sweeney, one of the players the Tigers received in the Flaherty trade, is already in the Majors. He joins a young core that includes Riley Greene, Colt Keith, Parker Meadows, Kerry Carpenter, Wenceel Pérez, Dillon Dingler, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Spencer Torkelson and the recently promoted Jace Jung.

But as we’ve seen with rebuilding teams in past years, taking that final step toward contention often means supplementing a young core with free-agent acquisitions. Are the Tigers ready to seize the opportunity to add to the roster this winter?

“I definitely think they could look to spend this offseason, but I don’t think it would have to be a ton,” an NL executive said. “I think they have a lot of young talent, and we’re still looking to see what Colt Keith can do and hope it’s similar for Jace Jung. They have pitching and some guys coming. I think they could make some creative offseason trades, but I think the focus has to be on adding defensive value.”

Financially, Detroit appears to have room to add payroll. Aside from Javier Báez’s contract – he’s owed $73 million from 2025-27, including $25 million next season – the Tigers have minimal contractual obligations moving forward.

Kenta Maeda will earn $10 million in 2025, while Keith will make $3.83 million. The club holds options on Shelby Miller ($4.25 million) and Casey Mize ($3.1 million, though it is expected to be declined, sending Mize back to arbitration), and there will be potential arbitration raises for second-year eligibles Skubal, Jake Rogers and Akil Baddoo, as well as nine other first-year arbitration players. Still, the payroll will be well shy of $100 million, leaving money to spend if Detroit chooses to do so.

“I think they will [spend],” an AL executive said. “They have a good nucleus of players, both pitching and hitting. Injuries have hurt the pitching and Torkelson isn’t producing, but that can turn around quickly. I expect them to be at the top of the division next year, especially if they do spend some money.”

After the Trade Deadline, Harris said during a radio interview that the club has to be “really intentional about how we’re building this,” adding that they “have to time it up so that when we have a core of players, we’re spending around it to make sure that we’re getting to October every single year.”

“I would think they would want to start moving this thing forward,” an NL exec said. “I wouldn’t expect them to go crazy; my guess is this will be a more measured build. I think you just have to take a cold, hard look at who you have and who you have coming and go from there. Momentum isn’t going to carry across a winter, but real talent changes might.”

“I think they know they have a front-line starter [in Skubal] who can win any game he pitches and will be a great matchup in any postseason game, and more importantly, they play in a division that is always up for grabs and usually doesn’t require 100 wins to finish at the top,” another NL executive said. “I could see them adding to their young core and doing what they can to move ahead in their process by a year or two.”

With Skubal, Reese Olson and a handful of other options, the rotation – which should get a boost from the arrival of No. 2 prospect Jackson Jobe sometime in 2025 – is in pretty good shape. The Tigers could look to add a starter on a short-term deal this winter the way they did with Flaherty and Michael Lorenzen the past two years, though it’s unlikely they’ll make a push for someone like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried.

Despite the presence of Torkelson and Báez, two positions that could be addressed are first base and shortstop.

Torkelson has struggled this year, unable to follow his breakout 2023 season with another strong performance. Detroit sent him down to the Minors on June 1 after he posted a .201/.266/.330 slash line with four home runs through 54 games, and while he has shown improvement since his return to the Majors on Aug. 17 (.238/.304/.441 with four homers in 22 games through Wednesday), there are some intriguing first-base options on the market this offseason, including Pete Alonso, Christian Walker and possibly Rhys Hoskins.

“Torkelson has been given chances, and I just am not sure he’s shown what they hoped he was fully capable of consistently,” an NL executive said. “I wouldn’t say they should give up on him, but I would certainly not shy away from an Alonso if he’s there.”

Báez is another story altogether. The two-time All-Star and former Gold Glove winner has been disappointing to say the least since signing his six-year, $140 million deal prior to the 2022 season. In 360 games over the past three years, Báez has a .610 OPS and a 71 OPS+, posting a 1.9 fWAR – including a -0.8 mark this season, during which he missed a month with lumbar spine inflammation and suffered a hip injury that required season-ending surgery. His status for Spring Training is still in question, though whether the Tigers plan on him being their starting shortstop even if he is healthy is also up in the air.

“I think they’ll project around .500 if they don’t make major additions; they’re a few good adds away from being dangerous,” an AL executive said. “Skubal and Greene are a good place to start building. They have only two more years left with Skubal, so they should probably push some chips into the middle – add to the team and/or extend him.”

How the Tigers handle Skubal could be a sign of how they view their situation. Detroit opted not to trade the Cy Young frontrunner this summer, and with two years remaining until free agency, extending him would be an indication that the Tigers are ready to take the next step. Without an extension, the possibility of a trade will continue to exist, a move that could hinder the club’s short-term ability to contend.

“The big question is whether they ride it out with Skubal or are open to moving him and trying to lengthen their window even more, maybe at the cost of a worse team in the near term,” an NL executive said.

“If they want to compete beyond [2026], I think they have to extend him, unless they see a greater need for key pieces in a trade,” another NL exec said. “I think he’s more valuable right now for them.”

“I could see them adding a big name and then look to fill a couple holes, as well,” an NL executive said. “But the big name will be the challenge because they’ll be competing with the big teams. It should be interesting. We’ve seen them spend money on big names in the past, so they’re certainly capable of doing it.”