The Good, Bad, & Ugly in Maple Leafs’ 5-1 Loss to the Blues

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost 5-1 at home to the St. Louis Blues on Thursday Night. What were the good, bad, and ugly aspects of the Maple Leafs loss to the Blues?

The Ugly (Poor Start, Top Line Struggles, Power Play Woes)

I’m starting with the ugly because this game started ugly. After giving up six goals in the previous game, I expected the Maple Leafs to come out with some jump and take control of this game early. Instead, they gave up two goals on five shots in the first 10 minutes and changed. That is eight goals in just over 70 minutes of hockey given up by the team that gave up ten goals in their first six games. From then on, the Maple Leafs were forced to play catch-up hockey and could not do it.

The second ugly is the top line. For the second game in a row, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Matthew Knies were all minus three in plus-minus. That means they were minus six in the last two games. Chris Tanev was also minus three in each of the previous two games.

Ugly #3 was the power play, which went zero for four in the game. Midway through the second period, they showed a graphic comparing the power play with last season’s overall ranking. In 2023-24, they were fourth in shot attempts, second in slot plays, and fourth in expected goals with the man advantage. This season, they are 22nd in shot attempts, 23rd in slot plays, and 17th in expected goals on the PP.

The Bad (Starting Woll, Defensive Mistakes)

I will start with what I think was a bad decision by Craig Berube. That was to start Joseph Woll at home in an important early season game. I’m not saying this game was important because it was Berube’s old team. It was important because if they won, the Maple Leafs would have increased their record to 5-3 and been in second place in the Atlantic Division, one point behind the Florida Panthers with a game in hand. Instead, they are at .500, with a 4-4 record, tied with Ottawa, Tampa, and Detroit, and all three of those teams have games in hand over the Maple Leafs.

Woll has not played a competitive game of hockey in 175 days. It makes sense he would have some rust and might take a game or two to get going. Meanwhile, Anthony Stolarz claimed the number one spot in the early going this season and played great hockey. With Dennis Hildeby getting the last start, it would have been Stolarz’s game to start if Toronto had not activated Woll and sent Hildeby to the AHL. On top of that, the Maple Leafs have confidence playing in front of Stolarz. Berube would have been better off holding off on activating Woll for one day, giving Stolarz the start in this game, and then starting Woll on the road in Boston.

It is possible that, with this game against a Central Division team and the Boston game against a divisional rival, Berube felt the Bruins’ game was more important to win.

Maple Leafs Mistakes Led to Three Goals

Berube lamented post-game about too many mistakes and not being physical to close plays out defensively.

Goal One

Analyzing the first three goals, on the first goal, Tanev chased Jordan Kyrou from the corner behind the Toronto goal to the left of Woll back behind the net, all the way out to the point, back down to the corner to the left of Woll, and then back out to the point before Kyrou dished the puck off to Philip Broberg at the point. The play would have ended if Tanev had just taken the body somewhere along that route.

Berube talked about Woll being screened on Broberg’s shot. Pavel Buchnevich and Matthews were screening Woll. Matthews attempted to block the shot but failed. I don’t know what Berube’s defensive system is for zone coverage. Still, the other defenseman, Morgan Rielly, followed Alex Texier around the zone while Matthews was parked out front with Buchnevich. To me, that is backward. Rielly should have taken care of the down-low coverage in front of the net, and Matthews should have taken care of the high coverage. Either way, no one boxed out Buchnevich, which would have allowed Woll to see the shot.

Goal Two

On the second goal, the Blues were on the power play. All four Maple Leafs defenders were in the corner battling for the puck with four St. Louis players, leaving Dylan Holloway alone in front of the goal. Berube stated that a forward was out of position for that goal. Kampf was pinned along the boards, and Matthews was a stride or two off the play, so I will assume the player out of position was Matthews.

Goal Three

Berube called the third goal a lazy play. Under pressure, Jake McCabe tried to relay the puck from the deep corner to the left of Woll to Matthews just a few feet in front of him on that goal. Under pressure from Kyrou, Matthews bobbled the puck, and it went back into the corner. Toronto never gained control of the puck after that. Kyrou found Texier left alone in front of the net, and Texier beat Woll’s blocker side.

Following the goal, the camera caught Berube appearing to chew out Matthews. I have no idea what point Berube was making or exactly where he thought the laziness was in the play. It looked like McCabe put Matthews in a tough spot with his short pass to Matthews in front of the net. The more intelligent play would have been for McCabe to return behind the net.

The Good (Shots, Pairing Adjustments)

While there is not much to report on in the game, Toronto did play much better in this game than they did against Columbus. They doubled the shot attempts (85-43) and outshot the Blues 41-27. According to NaturalStatTrick.com, the High-Danger Scoring Chances in the game were 12-7 Toronto, and the Maple Leafs had 64% of the Expected Goals.

Berube switched his top-four defensemen alignment to start the second period. He moved Oliver Ekman-Larsson over to play alongside Rielly and put McCabe and Tanev together. The Rielly, Ekman-Larsson pair paid a dividend just six minutes in when OEL one-timed a pass from Rielly past Jordan Binnington to make the score 2-1 Blues at the time. Unfortunately, St. Louis would get that goal back just 1:38 later.

What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?

I’m not trying to make excuses, but this is a grueling part of the season for the Maple Leafs. The St. Louis game capped off a three-game, four-night stretch with travel between games and a four-game, six-night stretch. They aren’t done yet. They travel to Boston and Winnipeg to play the Bruins on Saturday and the Jets on Monday. Starting with the Rangers game on the 19th and finishing with the Jets game on the 28th, the Maple Leafs will have played six games in ten days.

The biggest thing I see with the top line’s play, especially Matthews and Marner, is that they look tired. The same is true with Nylander. A lot has been made about Berube’s demanding practices. I wonder if a combination of the taxing practices and the exhausting schedule is wearing those players down. After the Winnipeg game, the schedule does soften up. If fatigue is a factor, hopefully, they can gain a little rest over the next week or so.

Related: Renewed Trade Talk Surrounds Maple Leafs’ Nick Robertson