Study: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields 2023 TD/INT Ratios

Scoring and taking care of the football are obviously two critical elements of quarterback play and the outcome of games. Today, I wanted to look at and provide data on new Pittsburgh quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields as passers, looking at touchdown and interceptions, along with former Steeler Kenny Pickett in 2023 for comparison. Included are players with a minimum of 250 regular season drop backs.

Here are the 2023 regular season results:

On the top right, are the quarterbacks that provided the best balance of throwing touchdowns and limiting interceptions, including Wilson. He was one of seven QBs above the mean in each, out of 33 qualifiers. Wilson threw for 26 touchdowns, ninth-most in the NFL in 2023, along with eight interceptions (T-13th least).

The three quarterbacks in our sights were above the mean in limiting interceptions while Wilson was the only one to accomplish that in the touchdown department. That is music to Steelers Nation’s ears for the expected starter, with the problematic issue of needing to score points for several seasons past due for remedying.

The top left of the visual helps emphasize this point with Pickett landing on the extreme end of that spectrum. While he tied for the least interceptions among qualifiers (four), he threw for just six touchdowns, ranking next-to-last. Discouraging context to that was QB Ryan Tannehill, last in touchdowns (four), played three less games and had nearly 100 less drop backs.

We also see Fields on the top left but much closer to the mean in touchdowns. Important context is more opportunities, with 457 drop backs compared to 363 for Pickett. Still, Fields’ 16 touchdowns more than doubled Pickett while being slightly above the mean among his peers in limiting interceptions (nine).

So, the new black and gold QBs provided healthier scoring results for their teams in 2023, and I’m optimistic they can do the same in their opportunities in Pittsburgh.

To close, here is a look at the touchdown/interception ratios (TDs – INTs):

Pretty staggering visual here in many regards. Several successful quarterbacks and teams land towards the top while not so much at the bottom of the list as you’d expect, pointing to the importance of the metric.

With a Steelers lens, we see very encouragingly that Wilson tied for the fourth-best ratio in the NFL last season. Yes, there was a tiff between the QB and OC in Denver in 2023 that led to being benched late season along with many Denver fans and analysts having a problem with more short passing than their liking.

But if you’re getting these kinds of results compared to Pickett (27th) and the Steelers last season, I frankly do not care. It’s not like Wilson can’t throw the deep ball, and also found success in the red zone, two elements lacking in Pittsburgh in recent seasons. Hopefully, he can provide a similar ratio for the black and gold. If so, pairing that with a strong defense could result in the ultimate goal of playoffs and knock-on-wood wins once getting there, which hasn’t occurred since 2016.