Study: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields 2023 Air Yard Data

Air yards are an increasingly important factor in today’s NFL. Knowing that, I wanted to look at and provide data on new quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields along with former Steeler Kenny Pickett in this regard.

When people think of air yardage, pushing the ball downfield usually comes to mind first, and could certainly improve for the 2024 Steelers offense. Attacking defenses in all areas of the field is even better, and the goal today is to see those frequencies across the NFL last season.

Using Sports Info Solutions (SIS), I calculated air yard percentages (air yards/intended air yards) for NFL quarterbacks with a minimum of 250 regular season drop backs in 2023:

The three quarterbacks in our sights landed fairly similar in terms of air yard percentages in 2023. That is pretty different than several of my studies on the new quarterback room for the Pittsburgh Steelers where Wilson was clearly stronger in several aspects of play in 2023.

Just 44.5 percent of Wilson’s passing yards came through the air in 2023, ranking 24th out of the 31 qualifying quarterbacks. On 447 total pass attempts and 3,070 passing yards last season (each ranking 19th), 1,327 were air yards (22nd). Given the volume and total yards, Wilson’s air yardage was definitely below-average.

Let’s examine that further, starting with explosive air yard passing (20 or more air yards). On 55 such attempts (T-11th), Wilson had 768 passing yards. That ranked 12th (minimum of 25 attempts), with 665 of them coming through the air (ninth). Meaning, deep ball effectiveness was actually not an issue for Wilson, actually a strength compared to their peers.

Next, short passing was something Wilson often did in 2023. Looking at air yardage behind the line of scrimmage, he had 141 attempts, third most in the NFL last season. That also accounted for 470 of his total passing yards, fifth-most out of players with a minimum of 50 behind the line passes in 2023. Definitely a primary factor in bringing his air yard percentage down in the initial view, as you’d probably expect.

I also wanted to look at intermediate air yardage (ten-19 air yards). This is another area that Wilson didn’t attack often compared to his peers, with only 60 attempts, ranking 27th. 610 total yards on these plays (26th), with a slightly better 23rd rank in air yardage (527).

To summarize, Wilson took an above-average number of shots past 20 yards downfield but otherwise was throwing short overall in 2023.

Fields had the best air yard percentages of the three quarterbacks we’re focused on, ranking 19th last season at 46.6-percent. That number was only 0.1 higher than Pickett though, giving them virtually the same air yard percentages in 2023. Considering Pickett was no gunslinger by any stretch, we get unfortunate context of Fields being similar, and Wilson even worse last year.

More specifically, on Fields’ 370 total attempts (23rd) and 2,562 total passing yards (22nd), 1,276 came via air yardage (24th). Slightly behind but more even rankings than Wilson thus far.

On explosive air yardage, Fields had 50 attempts (T-18th), 641 total yards (19th), and 551 air yards (15th). Less frequent than Wilson in totality, but Fields played in two less games as well. With that in mind, nice bump up in the explosive air yards ranks.

Behind the line, Fields had 103 attempts (14th), and 257 passing yards (25th). Less frequent and more importantly not nearly as successful yardage in Chicago, dipping over ten spots in those ranks.

The intermediate numbers for Fields came in at 55 attempts (30th), 457 yards (31st), and 344 air yards (31st). So, the intermediate passing game is a common denominator that both new Steelers quarterbacks lacked in 2023.

That sentence was painful to write, considering I harped that intermediate passing was lacking in Pickett’s time with the black and gold in my Steelers passing charts series.

For clearer comparison, here’s a ranks table view of Wilson, Fields, and Pickett:

Although Fields had the best air yards rate of the group, intermediate passing was non-existent compared to his peers, at one of the lowest frequencies among qualifiers. In fact, Pickett had the most attempts of the three despite playing in just 11 games (Wilson 15, Fields 13).

One on end, that may point to an issue this season, but on the flipside is the change of scenery including new OC Arthur Smith. Desmond Ridder, his primary QB in Atlanta last season, ranked 10th with a 52.7 air yards percentage, including better intermediate ranks so that points to hope for 2024.

A positive expected change for the upcoming season for the new quarterbacks in Pittsburgh is explosive passing. The difference in behind the line passing is very clear on the visual as well with Wilson throwing there often with success in Denver.

What I do know for certain is things will look much different at quarterback, and I can’t wait to see how the utilization of the field in the passing game turns out in 2024.