Steelers Vs. Colts Preview: 5 Keys To Victory In Week Four

The Pittsburgh Steelers will play their fourth game of the 2024 regular season on Sunday afternoon on the road against the Indianapolis Colts. They’ll enter that contest listed as a slight favorite. Below are five key things that I believe the Steelers will need to do in that road game on Sunday to come away with their fourth consecutive win of the 2024 season.

Taylor-made To Be Queen For A Day – The Colts’ offense will likely lean heavily on their running game against the Steelers on Sunday. They have just the running back to do that with in Jonathan Taylor, who has rushed for 261 yards and three touchdowns on 51 total carries through the first three games of the 2024 regular season. Taylor has already registered eight runs of 10 yards or longer on the season and as a team, the Colts offense has registered 15, the third most in the NFL for 2024. The Colts will use Taylor in the passing game, and he has 57 yards on three receptions and six total targets in Indianapolis’ first three games of 2024.

The Colts like to use quite a bit of 11 personnel on offense so that means they are running well with just one tight end on the field and three wide receivers. The Colts’ use of 11 personnel against the Steelers’ defense will likely be countered with a lot of nickel sub-package personnel, which features one inside linebacker on the field in Patrick Queen, who figures to need to have a big day in the tackling department. Queen will be tasked with getting off second-level blocks by the Colts offensive lineman and then, most of the time, finding Taylor with the football. How the Steelers’ defense handles the Colts’ running game on Sunday could go a long way in determining which team ultimately wins. A big game by Queen within four yards of the line of scrimmage will likely need to be a part of doing just that.

Footloose Fields On Lucas Oil Field – Through three games, the Colts defense has allowed just 62 yards on 11 rushes by opposing quarterbacks. Even so, the most mobile quarterback the Colts defense has faced so far has been Malik Willis of the Green Bay Packers, who registered 41 yards and a touchdown on six rushing attempts in Week 2. On Sunday, Steelers QB Justin Fields, one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the NFL right now, should have quite a few designed runs on his plate to attack the Colts’ defense. So far this season, Fields has run 28 times for 90 yards and a touchdown, several of those obviously being scrambles, as just 11 of them were either by design or part of read options.

Fields admitted during his media session this past week that he needs to get his legs going a little more than he has so far this season. While the designed quarterback run and read-option plays that Fields has been asked to run so far this season haven’t produced overly eye-popping results, it doesn’t mean that Pittsburgh OC Arthur Smith needs to quit attempting them. The Colts’ defense will be down several key defensive players on Sunday against the Steelers due to injuries, and thus, that unit should be primed to be run on in Indianapolis. Fields should be included in the running attack game plan on Sunday, as he should have an opportunity to break off a few big plays thanks to his athletic ability. At the very least, Fields shouldn’t be afraid to use his legs. He might just exit Sunday’s game against the Colts as the leading rusher on both sides of the football.

Come Up HerBig Against Big Raimann – The Steelers won’t have starting OLB Alex Highsmith on Sunday against the Colts as he will miss the week 4 road contest with a groin injury. With Highsmith out, second-year OLB Nick Herbig looks to make the start in his place on Sunday. Herbig has been fantastic on defense in the 20 regular season games that he has played in so far, as he has registered 31 total tackles, seven tackles for loss, five quarterback hits, five sacks, three forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery in regular season action. Even so, Herbig has logged just 244 defensive snaps in total for his NFL career. He could easily have at least 50 more defensive snaps to that total on Sunday against the Colts in Indianapolis. Thus he should have a much larger single-game sample size to examine as a result of Highsmith being sidelined.

Herbig, who should mostly see playing time at the right outside linebacker on Sunday, should face off against Colts big T Bernhard Raimann, who is quite a bit during the Week 4 contest. Raimann, who is now in his third NFL season, has played well at left tackle for the Colts in the team’s first three games, as he has only allowed one sack and just four total pressures to date. Herbig, in short, needs to come up big on Sunday against Raimann, who is not likely to get much help from a chipping tight end or running back because of Steelers’ game-wrecking OLB T.J. Watt requiring such help on the other side of the offensive line. If Herbig has a big game on Sunday, both against the run and the pass, the Steelers defense could wind up with yet another super-dominant performance for a fourth consecutive contest and possibly their best one this season.

Some Deep Shots To Pickens From – The Colts should be expected to play a lot of single-high safety on defense against the Steelers’ offense on Sunday, as that was their modus operandi through the first three games with DC Gus Bradley in charge on that side of the football. In short, the Steelers should see a lot of cover-3 defense on Sunday with a little cover-1 and cover-2 mixed in. Overall, opposing quarterbacks haven’t really attacked the middle of the field against the Colts through Week 3, especially more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. So, it won’t be surprising to see Fields and the Steelers offense follow suit on Sunday as they are likely to attack through the air more towards the numbers on the field and outside of them. While we aren’t likely to see Fields and company throw deep down the middle of the field against the Colts on Sunday, we should see Fields pick his spots with deep passes near or outside the numbers, specifically to WR George Pickens.

So far this season, Fields has connected on passes of 20 or more yards to Pickens three times in three games when it comes to plays not wiped out by penalties. Those three to Pickens are the only ones that Fields has connected on when talking about air-yard throws of 20 or more. The Colts defense, on the other hand, has allowed five completed deep throws of 20 or more air yards through their first three games. Three of those five were allowed in Week 3 against the Chicago Bears. Whenever Fields sees Pickens singled up on the outside on Sunday, and especially in press-man situations, he should give his star wide receiver a chance to make a play deep down the field. Pickens might also deserve a deep shot or two outside against zone as well on Sunday. The Steelers offense has only registered six explosive passing plays of 20 yards or more so far this season, with Pickens being on the receiving end of three of them. Pickens needs to come out of Sunday’s game with at least two more of those, with at least one of those being a double or triple-explosive play.

Accept Anthony’s Alms – Colts second-year QB Anthony Richardson has had quite an interesting start to the 2024 regular season, as it has literally been feast or famine for him when it comes to his passing. For starters, Richardson, a first-round draft pick in 2023, has completed just 49.3 percent of his 73 total pass attempts through the first three games of the 2024 regular season. As part of that, Richardson has already thrown six interceptions. A few more of his attempts probably could have been picked off in the Colts’ first three games of 2024.

Richardson is not afraid to throw deep down the field, and while his interception rate is high, he has completed seven of 18 pass attempts thrown more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage, with two of those resulting in touchdowns. Even so, three of those deep throws were intercepted. Richardson’s deep throws, at least through the first three games of the 2024 regular season, for the most part, have seemed to be either lackadaisical in nature or very off-target. In short, it’s not hard to reason that on Sunday against the Steelers, Richardson will offer up at least a few turnover-worthy throws to the Pittsburgh defense. Assuming that happens, the Steelers’ defense must take advantage of such gifts. As a team, the Steelers have four interceptions entering Week 4 by their defense, and they should get a few opportunities to add to that number on Sunday in Indianapolis. The defense must accept any and all gifts that Richardson offers up on Sunday to help counteract a few deep throws that he’s likely to connect on during the contest.