Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC 306

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight standouts Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili will finally go to war TONIGHT (Sat., Sept. 14, 2024) at UFC 306 from inside The Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada.

“Suga” has lived up to the hype. Ever since his Contenders Series debut, it’s been obvious that O’Malley was a standout prospect with a knack for kickboxing. There were some early hurdles for the young talent, but he clearly leveled up by the time he met Petr Yan in the cage. Since then, he’s only gained momentum, establishing himself as the division’s sharpest range fighter.

Dvalishvili’s rise to the top of the Bantamweight ranks was slower but a bit more consistent. Throughout his current 10-fight win streak, “The Machine” has been remarkably dominant, breaking down world-class fighters through sheer pace and wrestling attrition. It’s not a style that often produces finishes, but Dvalishvili’s opponents often end up looking as if they’d rather be anywhere else when that final bell rings.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Betting Odds

• Sean O’Malley victory: -135
• Sean O’Malley via TKO/KO/DQ: +150
• Sean O’Malley via submission: +1800
• Sean O’Malley via decision: +400
• Merab Dvalishvili victory: +114
• Merab Dvalishvili via TKO/KO/DQ: +800
• Merab Dvalishvili via submission: +2000
• Merab Dvalishvili via decision: +165
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

How O’Malley Wins

I don’t think it’s any secret how O’Malley wins this fight. The guy is one of the best strikers on the entire UFC roster, and he’s facing a man with fairly robotic kickboxing. We’ve seen Dvalishvili hurt on the feet before, and we’ve seen O’Malley absolutely snipe numerous opponents as they try to close distance.

It’s easy to visualize “Suga” picking off Dvalishvili with a sharp counter right hand or knee directly up the middle. The question is whether the champion can materialize that connection. If Dvalishvili is wrapped around his leg or in the clinch, it ain’t happening, so preventing that initial contact is really key here.

Stopping Dvalishvili from getting his wrestling going at all comes down to footwork. O’Malley has to keep his distance by switching stances and changing directions while showing his longest range offense, like his jabs and teeps. When Dvalishvili tries to advance, that’s O’Malley’s opportunity to time a big shot then escape at an angle, back to that movement.

Dvalishvili isn’t the type to hang around at distance. If O’Malley is evasive early, the wrestler will press forward and create opportunity for the knockout artist.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Dvalishvili Wins

Similar to the above, it’s very easy to understand how Dvalishvili wins this bout. If “The Machine” gets a hold of O’Malley, he’s trapped more credentialed wrestlers in his cycle of takedowns, strikes, and mat returns.

We’ve seen Dvalishvili hang back at range then wrestle, and we’ve seen him sprint out of the gates to close distance right away. The latter certainly feels like the move here. There’s no reason to let O’Malley gain any sense of distance or timing for free — Dvalishvili should waste zero time in getting to his wrestling.

The key for Dvalishvili is to avoiding getting clipped in the early goings. He doesn’t have to win the first round in a 25-minute fight. If, however, he’s able to feint and dive his way onto the legs, Dvalishvili can begin the work of slowing O’Malley down, making him less dangerous and more vulnerable to future takedowns.

Cage position will also be important. O’Malley is fast, but if he’s herded into the fence, he won’t be able to fully avoid contact with “The Machine.”

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Prediction

I expect domination. The question is from who …

This is one of those fights where the the victor is going to win dramatically. We either get a vicious Sean O’Malley knockout or we watch as Dvalishvili ragdolls one of the sport’s biggest stars for 25 full minutes. They’re both so much better then each other in their respective areas that a back-and-forth fight feels unlikely. Once somebody takes control, they aren’t likely to let go.

I have to side with the striker. Historically, straightforward grinders like Merab Dvalishvili hit a hard ceiling at some point. There is nothing tricky about his approach to combat, and the best usually punish those habits. Dvalishvili has thus far been able to willpower his way through that ceiling (like versus Marlon Moraes), but O’Malley is simply sharper and more suited to taking his head off than passed opponents.

I think O’Malley hurts him early, and I don’t think “Suga” lets him off the hook.

Prediction: O’Malley via knockout (+150)