Real Madrid vs Atalanta Prediction: UEFA Super Cup 2024 Preview

Real Madrid will be looking to become the first club to win six UEFA Super Cup titles when they face Atalanta in Warsaw on Wednesday evening. We look ahead to the match with our Real Madrid vs Atalanta prediction and preview.

Real Madrid vs Atalanta Stats: The Key Insights

• Real Madrid are predicted to win the 2024 UEFA Super Cup, winning inside 90 minutes in 59.7% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations.
• Should Real Madrid win, they’ll become the team with the most UEFA Super Cup titles, moving clear of Barcelona and Milan.
• Kylian Mbappé has scored eight goals in the last 11 finals that he’s played in for club and country.

Real Madrid will be looking to become record six-time winners of the UEFA Super Cup in their meeting with Italian side Atalanta at the National Stadium in Warsaw, Poland, on Wednesday night. They currently hold five Super Cup titles – joint first alongside rivals Barcelona and Italian giants Milan – but a win this week would place them outright top.

Carlo Ancelotti’s side will play in this match following their 2023-24 UEFA Champions League victory, when they beat Borussia Dortmund 2-0 at Wembley thanks to second-half goals from Dani Carvajal and Vinícius Júnior. It was Ancelotti’s 13th trophy as Madrid head coach, and a win in this game would equal Miguel Muñoz’s (14) record for the most titles in the club’s history. The Italian also has the chance to become the coach with the most UEFA Super Cup titles, surpassing Pep Guardiola (four).

They come into this match having ended 2023-24 in fantastic form. Real Madrid have not lost any of their last 26 matches in all competitions (W17 D9), with this their best unbeaten run since January 2017 under Zinedine Zidane (G40 W30 D10), and last suffering defeat in January 2024 against Atlético Madrid in the Copa del Rey (4-2). They have also strengthened this summer with the acquisition of French star Kylian Mbappé.

Mbappé could make his competitive debut for the Spanish giants in this match. The last player to score on his debut for Real Madrid was Jude Bellingham against Athletic Club in La Liga in August 2023, while Mbappé is a man for the occasion. He’s scored eight goals in the last 11 finals he has played for club and country, including six goals in the last five: one in the Coupe de France in 2021, one in the UEFA Nations League in 2021, three in the 2022 FIFA World Cup and one in Trophée des Champions in 2021.

Another player who enjoys big matches is Brazilian forward Vinícius Jr. He’s been directly involved in 10 goals in the 10 finals he has played for Real Madrid (seven goals and three assists). He has scored in the last two of those, with a hat-trick versus Barcelona in the Spanish Super Cup 2024 and his UCL final goal versus Borussia Dortmund last season.

Serie A team Atalanta will play in the UEFA Super Cup for the first time after winning the 2023-24 UEFA Europa League with a convincing 3-0 win over Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen in the final back in May. That was their first ever major European trophy, with Nigerian forward Ademola Lookman grabbing a hat-trick – the sixth to be scored in a major UEFA final.

Their coach Gian Piero Gasperini became the fourth-oldest manager to win a major European trophy (66 years, 117 days old) after Raymond Goethals (71y 231d, 1993 UEFA Champions League), Jupp Heynckes (68y 16d, 2013 UEFA Champions League) and Alex Ferguson (66y 142d, 2008 UEFA Champions League). That Europa League victory was the first final that Atalanta have managed to win under his management, after previously losing three Coppa Italia finals with him in charge.

Atalanta have spent big on forwards this summer, with the incomings of Charles De Ketelaere from Milan – permanently, after he scored 14 goals on loan last season – and Mateo Retegui from Genoa costing them a reported combined total of €56 million (£48m). Alongside Lookman, they could cause Real Madrid some problems in this match.

Real Madrid vs Atalanta Head-to-Head

This will be just the third time that Real Madrid and Atalanta have met in a competitive fixture, after they were drawn against one another in the UEFA Champions League round of 16 back in 2020-21.

Real Madrid won both legs of that tie, prevailing 1-0 in Bergamo thanks to a Ferland Mendy strike after Remo Freuler was sent off after just 17 minutes, before winning 3-1 at their temporary home of the Alfredo Di Stéfano Stadium. Real reached the semi-finals that season before being knocked out by eventual winners Chelsea over two legs.

The last time that a Spanish club played an Italian side in the UEFA Super Cup was in 2010, when Atlético Madrid defeated Internazionale 2-0 in Monaco.

Real Madrid vs Atalanta Prediction

The Opta supercomputer predicts that Real Madrid are the most likely winners of the 2024 UEFA Super Cup, with Ancelotti’s side winning inside 90 minutes in 59.7% of the pre-match simulations.

The 2023-24 Europa League winners, Atalanta, caused an upset by beating Los Blancos in 19.1% of the 10,000 sims before kick-off, while 21.2% of simulations saw the match go to a penalty shootout after a draw in normal time.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.

Real Madrid vs Atalanta Predicted Lineups

Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão, Antonio Rüdiger, Ferland Mendy, Federico Valverde, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Luka Modric, Jude Bellingham, Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior.

Atalanta: Juan Musso, Berat Djimsiti, Isak Hien, Sead Kolasinac, Davide Zappacosta, Éderson, Marten De Roon, Matteo Ruggeri, Charles De Ketelaere, Mateo Retegui, Ademola Lookman.

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