Premier League Title Predictions: Liverpool Chances Nearly Double as Man City & Arsenal Slip Up Again

Liverpool have enjoyed an excellent start to the season. As such, their Premier League title race success probability is quickly catching up with Manchester City’s.

At some point over the weekend, the 2024-25 Premier League season surpassed the quarter-complete marker for the majority of the clubs involved.

There’s still a long way to go, but it also feels like we’re at a point where we’ve seen enough to start drawing some conclusions about how the campaign might develop.

Manchester United look like they’ll just be happy with a top-half finish; Wolves appear doomed; Chelsea are seemingly on course for a return to the Champions League. It feels like the first few months of the season have been instructive.

That is also potentially the case at the top of the table, with a title race beginning to take shape.

But while most in pre-season were probably hotter on Arsenal being the biggest challengers to Manchester City’s crown, we’ve reached the 10-game point with Liverpool leading the way.

Granted, the Reds being good isn’t exactly a shock, but let’s not forget they came into the 2024-25 season with plenty of uncertainty surrounding them. Jürgen Klopp, their manager for nearly nine years, departed at the end of 2023-24, leaving a sizeable void.

Arne Slot was appointed as his replacement and has effectively picked up where Klopp left off, making only subtle changes instead of instigating an overhaul. The Dutchman has overseen a highly efficient start to 2024-25, with Liverpool arguably the standout team in the Premier League.

And, following results over the weekend, they sit top with a two-point cushion having only failed to win two of their first 10 league games in 2024-25.

Liverpool’s eight wins is their most ever during the first 10 league matches in charge for a Reds manager, while Slot is also the first boss in English top-flight history to win as many as 13 of his first 15 fixtures across all competitions with a senior men’s side.

Liverpool beat Brighton 2-1 at Anfield on Saturday; at the same time, City lost 2-1 away to Bournemouth, while Arsenal lost 1-0 away to Newcastle earlier in the day.

It was a hugely welcome sequence of events for the Reds, who ended the day seven points clear of Arsenal and two ahead of City.

Pep Guardiola’s men continue to be backed by the Opta supercomputer as favourites to win the Premier League, still going all the way in 61.1% of the 10,000 season simulations. But that has significantly reduced since it was up at 82.2% at the start of the season.

Results over the weekend played a massive part in that, with City’s title chances dropping 14 percentage points. Arsenal’s chances, despite suffering another defeat, didn’t actually change that much, only decreasing by 1.2 percentage points – but that’s mostly down to theirs already being rather low anyway.

The 14 percentage points that City lost in Bournemouth all went the way of Liverpool. Their likelihood of winning the title last Friday was 17.9% but shot up to 34.2% after they came from behind against Brighton while City lost.

Considering the Reds began the season as the third favourites with a 5.1% probability of earning a record-equalling 20th top-flight league title, this marks an emphatic improvement in their fortunes and helps quantify the impact of Slot’s record-breaking start to life at Anfield.

But is it also time for Mikel Arteta and Arsenal to start worrying?

They only lost one of their first 25 league games of 2024 but have since lost two of the past three and drawn the other. The loss to Newcastle also consigned them to successive top-flight away defeats for the first time since May 2022.

And yet, Sky Sports pundit and former Manchester United captain Gary Neville is curiously still backing Arsenal for the title, pointing to the fact Martin Ødegaard and other currently injured players are due to return during or just after the upcoming November international break.

Similarly, it could be the case that Arsenal peak later in the season when perhaps Slot’s Liverpool suffer a potential momentary blip, with the Gunners hitting their stride when it matters most.

But then maybe Liverpool won’t endure such a dip; perhaps consistency eludes Arsenal all season. The point stands that there remains roughly three quarters of the season to go, meaning a lot can change.

Nevertheless, Liverpool’s start to 2024-25 suggests they have a high ceiling. While City – and Arsenal – endure something of an injury crisis, with the absence of Rodri for the rest of the season especially damaging, there’s every possibility the Reds’ title chances continue to rise.

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