Premier League Predictions 2024-25: The Opta Projections October Update

Now we’re seven games into the 2024-25 season, we look at the updated Premier League predictions by the Opta supercomputer.

After seven matchweeks, the Premier League table is beginning to take shape. Few will be surprised at the three teams pulling ahead of the chasing pack, but there have been some eye-catching performances elsewhere that should get fans excited about the possibility of their club overachieving in 2024-25.

Meanwhile some other teams have started the season rather less well than they would have once hoped. Manchester United are closer to the relegation zone (five points) than they are to the top four (six points), while Wolves fans will be justifiably alarmed by their start to the season.

We can all see the Premier League table as it stands now, but to help you look ahead and project the possible final standings, we’ve analysed the updated Opta supercomputer projections before Matchday 8 kicks the season back into action.

Premier League Title Predictions

Yes, Manchester City are still the favourites for the 2024-25 Premier League title, but the Opta supercomputer isn’t as convinced as it was at the start of the season.

Before a ball was kicked, the supercomputer saw Man City win a fifth consecutive Premier League title in 82.2% of its 10,000 simulations. That has now reduced to 69.4%, which still makes them favourites, but Arsenal and Liverpool are both hot on their tails.

Arsenal are still the second-favourites for the title, just like they were pre-season. Back then, the supercomputer predicted they’d win the 2024-25 Premier League in 12.2% of its simulations. But after a good start, taking 17 points from 7 games – the same as Man City – their chances have now increased to 19.6%.

Liverpool find themselves top of the Premier League at the October international break, with 18 points won from their seven matches so far. Based on the Opta Power Rankings, they have had the easiest start to 2024-25, but nonetheless Arne Slot has impressed in his first few months in charge of the club.

The Reds are currently projected to win their second Premier League title in 10.8% of supercomputer simulations, which is more than double their pre-season projection (5.1%).

The Opta supercomputer isn’t keen on the Premier League title going anywhere outside the current top three, with Chelsea the only other side to win any of the current simulations. Enzo Maresca’s side win the title in just 140 of the 10,000 simulations, while Aston Villa – level on 14 points with Chelsea – didn’t win it at all in those sims.

The Blues have arguably exceeded many people’s (… and computers’) pre-season expectations on the pitch. Their underlying performances have been strong, with only Liverpool (15.6) performing better in Opta’s expected points table than them (13.7).

Their good start has given them a great chance of achieving UEFA Champions League qualification in 2025-26, following a two-year absence.

Who Will Qualify for the UEFA Champions League?

For now, let’s ignore the strong chance that England will be rewarded with an extra spot in next season’s Champions League based on the Opta supercomputer projections and assess the race for a top-four finish.

Man City (99.9%), Arsenal (99.1%) and Liverpool (97.7%) are all shoo-ins for a place in the 2025-26 UCL, but fourth place is very much up for grabs.

Aston Villa sealed that position last season and are playing in the Champions League for the first time ever in 2024-25 (since its rebrand, anyway). They are among a group of four other teams given a good chance to finish in the top four again, albeit the least favoured of those sides.

Outside the current top three, Chelsea (45.8%) are given the biggest chance of finishing inside the top four, with Newcastle United (17.4%), Tottenham Hotspur (15.8%) and Aston Villa (15.0%) behind them.

It’s not looking great for Manchester United, with their current chances of a top-four finish at just 2.2%, below Brighton & Hove Albion (4.0%).

If England do win the coefficient battle and are awarded an extra place in next season’s Champions League, the biggest winners look set to be Newcastle, Tottenham or Aston Villa. Each club’s chances of securing UCL football next season would double should fifth be enough to qualify.

Updated Relegation Predictions

Sorry, Southampton fans. Back in August before the Premier League 2024-25 season had kicked off, the Opta supercomputer made Saints favourites for the drop to the Championship (66.7%) and based on their performances so far, it’s now even more confident in that decision (90.7%).

With one point from their seven games so far, they are level on points at the bottom of the Premier League table with Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Each of the last four teams to have won just a single point (or fewer) seven games into a Premier League season have been relegated in that campaign: Sheffield United last season, Leicester City in 2022-23, Norwich City in 2021-22 and Sheffield United in 2020-21.

The last team to survive with such a poor record after seven matches were Crystal Palace in 2017-18. They didn’t win a single point or score a single goal in their first seven games but still managed to finish the season in 11th place.

Wolves may have had the toughest fixtures across the opening seven matchdays of 2024-25 based on the Opta Power Rankings, but their poor start has been alarming nonetheless. The Opta supercomputer saw them relegated in 20.9% of pre-season simulations, but that has now increased to 53.3% today, behind only Southampton and Ipswich (60.1%).

Leicester have seen their projected relegation chance move from 60.3% pre-season to 44.8% now, while both Bournemouth (12.2% to 6.1%) and Nottingham Forest (35.6% to 5.5%) have also moved in the right direction. The same can’t be said for Everton or Crystal Palace.

Everton were relegated in just 9.1% of pre-season sims, but after seven games and just five points won, that has increased to 22.8% – partly due to their poor form, but also the good start made by the aforementioned teams deemed to be relegation possibles back at the start of August.

Crystal Palace’s start has been a surprise to some, even despite the departure of talented forward Michael Olise to Bayern Munich this summer. Between Oliver Glasner’s opening game in charge on 24 February and the end of last season, only Man City (35), Arsenal (34) and Chelsea (28) won more points than Palace (24), but they have been unable to replicate that form in the opening months of 2024-25.

Ahead of the season, Palace’s average end-of-season point tally across the 10,000 supercomputer simulations was 52.7. That’s now dropped to 41.1 after their poor start to 2024-25, a fall of 11.6 points and the largest negative difference among all 20 Premier League clubs, ahead of Wolves (-9.2), Southampton (-8.6) and Everton (-8.0).

How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?

Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.

The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.

The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.

Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You can also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.