Premier League Match Predictions | Opta Analyst

With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.

The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season as the projection model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all Premier League matches and season outcomes.

Of course, Manchester City will take some beating when it comes to the title race, as Pep Guardiola’s men are chasing a record-extending fifth consecutive top-flight title and are overwhelming favourites to achieve that success.

Arsenal are hoping to push City all the way, and while Liverpool no longer have Jürgen Klopp at the helm, Arne Slot is now guiding a squad that’s very similar to the one that threatened to be a real challenger until the final weeks of 2023-24.

And no doubt we’re in store for another highly competitive UEFA Champions League qualification battle involving the likes of Aston Villa, Tottenham, Chelsea, Newcastle United and Manchester United.

At the other end of the table, Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton are hoping to fare better than the previous teams to be promoted from the Championship – all three were relegated in 2023-24.

Now, all of that is a little far in the future to be given much consideration yet, but our AI-powered Opta supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2023-24 and is continuing to make predictions for every fixture this season.

Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League match predictions for 2024-25, and be sure to check back here ahead of every matchday for the latest projections.

Matchday 4

The Opta supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of match predictions as the early part of the 2024-25 Premier League season resumes following the international break.

Manchester City and Liverpool are setting the early pace, while Everton and Southampton are still waiting for their first point at the other end of the league table.

After a strong season of match predictions overall last year, supporters are likely to be looking at the 2024-25 picks even more forensically. And the system has enjoyed a promising start to this campaign too, including with its picks in the last matchweek when it correctly called wins for Man City, Liverpool and Brentford, even though dropped points by Arsenal and Chelsea came as slight surprises.

Matchday 4 will see all 10 matches crammed in across Saturday and Sunday as club football returns, with the UEFA Champions League also set to begin next week.

Eight of those Premier League matches will take place on Saturday, starting with a clash between two under-pressure teams when Southampton take on Manchester United.

Liverpool, Man City, Aston Villa and Chelsea are all in action too, with the Blues playing away to Bournemouth in the last match of the day.

There are just two contests on Sunday, but one of those is the game of the week as Tottenham take on Arsenal in the north London derby, with the Gunners going into MD4 three points clear of their rivals.

Ahead of what looks set to be an entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.

Premier League Predictions Matchweek 4: The Quick Hits

• Arsenal are given the edge against rivals Tottenham after dropping their first points of the season against Brighton last time out.
• The Opta supercomputer is backing Man Utd to record an away victory this weekend, with Chelsea and Newcastle United also favourites for their away games.
• Man City and Liverpool are strongly expected to continue their 100% starts to the season, with Pep Guardiola’s men being the predictive model’s most confident pick of MD4.

It has not been the start to 2024-25 that either Southampton or Man Utd would have hoped for ahead of their clash in Saturday’s early fixture. Saints remain without a point after three matches, while United already have two defeats to their name, including a tame surrender against rivals Liverpool at Old Trafford before the international break.

Under-pressure manager Erik ten Hag will hope a fixture against a promoted side provides him with some welcome relief. He will be pleased to learn United have only lost one of their last 30 Premier League games against promoted sides. And since the 4-1 loss at Watford in November 2021, which ended Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s spell in charge of the Red Devils, they have won 15 of 17 matches against such teams.

Man Utd are also unbeaten in their last 12 top-flight trips to Southampton and have not lost three of their first four games of any season since 1986. The Opta prediction model is confident those sequences will continue, with the visitors strong favourites here, with a win probability of 52.2%, the highest rating given to any away team this week. An upset is not completely ruled out, with Saints given a 23.6 % chance of victory.

Brighton have made an impressive start under Fabian Hürzeler, following up their last-gasp win over Manchester United with a draw against Arsenal last time out. They will fancy their chances of continuing their momentum against Ipswich Town, having lost just one of their last 13 Premier League home games against promoted sides.

The hosts’ win probability sits at a healthy 65.7%. They have won six of their last eight top-flight matches played in September and scored three or more goals in each of their last four such victories. However, their last September match was one to forget – a 6-1 defeat at Aston Villa.

Ipswich are still searching for their first win since returning to the Premier League and are given just a 15.3% chance of getting it at the Amex. They have had the fewest shots (19), shots on target (seven) and the lowest expected goals total (1.2) of any side in the competition this season, though it’s worth mentioning they have played against both Manchester City and Liverpool already.

Crystal Palace (56.6%) picked up their first point of the campaign against Chelsea two weeks ago, and the Opta supercomputer likes their chances of earning a first victory this time around against Leicester City (21.0%).

Palace have won each of their last nine matches with the Foxes. However, there is a silver lining for the visitors if they can open the scoring; Palace have conceded first in all three games this season and failed to win a Premier League match under Oliver Glasner in which they have trailed (drawing two and losing five).

Leicester have only opened the scoring in two of their last 24 top-flight outings, however, and have not had much luck in the capital of late, winning just two of their last 16 trips to London in the Premier League, with 11 defeats in that miserable run.

Saturday’s action also features a London derby at Craven Cottage, as Fulham host Julen Lopetegui’s West Ham. Cottagers boss Marco Silva has typically enjoyed facing the Hammers, recording more Premier League wins against them (six) than he has versus any other team. 

Fulham won their two league meetings with West Ham in 2023-24 by an aggregate score of 7-0, trouncing them 5-0 in this exact fixture last December. They have not won three successive league games against West Ham since 1966.

They are the supercomputer’s slight favourites with a 40.0% chance of victory, but West Ham are given a 33.8% chance of picking up three points and there is a 26.2% likelihood of a draw, making this the likeliest match to finish level across all 10 games this week. The Hammers’ only win of 2024-25 to date came at Palace (2-0), but they have not won their opening two away games of a league season since 2015.

Arne Slot will hope to continue his perfect start as Liverpool boss when the Reds welcome Nottingham Forest to Anfield, and our predictive model makes the hosts heavy favourites. They have won all three of their league games this season while keeping a clean sheet in each one, and they could become just the fifth side in English top-flight history to record four straight shutout victories to start a campaign. Aston Villa in 1900-01, Ipswich in 1974-75, Chelsea in 2005-06, and Man City in 2015-16 are the only others to record such an achievement.

Nuno Espírito Santo’s visitors, though, will carry a threat after taking five points from their first three games of 2024-25. They have registered more direct attacks (10) than any other team in the Premier League this season, so Virgil van Dijk and company will have to remain alert at the back.

However, Liverpool have a massive 73.4% chance of victory, with only Man City assigned a higher win probability across all matches on Matchday 4. Forest are given just an 11.2% chance of ending their 25-match winless run at Anfield in league action (five draws, 20 defeats).

Manchester City (76.1%) have started their title defence strongly with three wins already under their belt. As such, Brentford (9.7%) are being given little chance of getting anything from their trip to the Etihad Stadium (the draw is just a 14.1% chance).

The Bees have lost more Premier League away games (13) than any other current top-flight team since the start of last season but were the last side to win away to City in any competition, winning 2-1 in November 2022. However, Guardiola’s team are unbeaten in 45 at the Etihad in all competitions since then, winning 38 and drawing seven.

And City look set to continue that run with a striker as in form as Erling Haaland, who has scored a hat-trick in his last two appearances. The Norway star already has seven goals this season, the most ever by a player in a team’s first three matches of a campaign in the competition. He will now be eyeing Wayne Rooney’s record for the most goals across the first four matchdays (eight for Manchester United in 2011-12).

There are two later fixtures on Saturday, and the first one sees Everton – who are propping up the league after three straight losses to start the season – face the daunting task of taking on Aston Villa at Villa Park.

Villa are the big favourites. That won’t be too surprising, though, given they are unbeaten in all 10 of their league meetings with Everton (W7 D3) since they were promoted back to the Premier League in 2019, keeping seven clean sheets and conceding just three goals in that run. The Villans won 60.9% of the pre-match simulations, compared to the Toffees’ 18.4%. Villa won the corresponding fixture last season 4-0, though Everton were victorious at Villa Park in the EFL Cup a month later.

Everton have also lost eight of their last 10 Premier League games that have immediately followed an international break (W1 D1), including all four such matches last season. Villa, meanwhile, have won each of their last five league matches when immediately following an international break. Everton – who threw away a two-goal lead to lose 3-2 against Bournemouth last time out – have now lost three in a row and have only ever had a longer losing run from the beginning of a league campaign twice before in 1926-27 (five games) and 1958-59 (six).

The late match on Saturday sees Bournemouth, fresh from that stunning late comeback at Everton, host Chelsea. The visitors came out on top in 45.1% of the supercomputer’s simulations, but that still gives the Cherries a fighting chance of getting something from the game – their win probability is 30.0%, with the draw a candidate at 24.9%.

Chelsea have won three straight away league games, last having a longer run between February and April 2022 (four). The Blues have also lost just one of their seven Premier League trips to Bournemouth (W4 D2), with three of their four defeats in the competition against the Cherries coming at Stamford Bridge.

You can probably expect goals in this one. Chelsea have conceded at least once in each of their last 17 Premier League away games, shipping 36 goals during this run. Only once have they had a longer sequence without a clean sheet on the road in the competition (a 24-match run that ended in 1994). And anticipate those goals coming in the second half – these teams have scored a joint league-high four second-half goals each this term.

If Chelsea are to get the points, they will have to keep Antoine Semenyo under lock and key, as the winger has had more shots (17) than any other Premier League player this season and looked a threat with his carrying ability.

Moving on to Sunday and the headline fixture of the weekend – it’s the north London derby, as Tottenham host Arsenal in a fixture that almost always delivers on entertainment value.

Arsenal vs Tottenham has seen both teams score more often than any other fixture in Premier League history (43), while it is also the fixture to see the team who score first fail to win more often than any other (29 occasions).

The Gunners have won their last two away games against Tottenham, as many as in their previous 17 top-flight visits (D6 L9). They last won three consecutive away north London derbies between 1987 and 1988, but our model fancies their chances of doing just that – Mikel Arteta’s team have been given the edge with a 43.0% win probability, while Spurs’ likelihood of victory is 31.5%. The draw is rated at 25.4%.

Son Heung-min has scored eight goals against Arsenal in all competitions; in the history of the fixture, only Harry Kane (14), Emmanuel Adebayor (10) and Bobby Smith (10) have netted more than the South Korea international, who is a good bet to be a key player for Ange Postecoglou in this clash.

Raheem Sterling, meanwhile, could make his Arsenal debut – he would be the first player to make his Gunners bow in a north London derby since Isaiah Rankin in 1997. Having scored against Spurs at White Hart Lane (with Liverpool) and Wembley Stadium (with Man City), he could become the third player to net a Premier League goal against them at all three of their home grounds, after Jamie Vardy and Aleksandar Mitrovic.

The final fixture of Matchday 4 takes place at Molineux, with Gary O’Neil’s Wolves still seeking their first victory of the campaign as they host Newcastle United. While the Magpies are given a 44.4% chance of victory to the hosts’ 30.1%, if previous results between the teams are anything to go by, a draw would be no great surprise.

Indeed, 61% of the previous Premier League meetings between Wolves and Newcastle (11/18) have finished level, including a 2-2 draw in this exact fixture last season. That is the highest percentage of any fixture to have been played at least 15 times in the competition’s history, and 25.4% of the supercomputer’s match simulations finished all square.

Neutrals should expect an entertaining end to the weekend’s action. Both teams have scored in all nine of their previous Premier League meetings at Molineux, making it the most-played fixture in the competition’s history to not feature a single clean sheet.

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