Postseason on the line in Twins’ home stretch

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Perhaps it’s a difficult message for many Twins fans to hear, given the team’s on-field challenges of the last month-plus. And silver linings and platitudes obviously carry less impact, given the reality of the Tigers having briefly closed the gap in the AL Wild Card standings in that time.

“We control our own destiny,” manager Rocco Baldelli said last week. “To be at this point in the year having struggled a little over the last month and still be able to say, ‘Hey, we go out there and play well from here on out, we’re going to be pretty pleased with where we’re sitting at the end of the regular season,’ we have to prove it.”

It’s looking like four teams are playing for the final two playoff spots in the AL: the Royals, Twins, Tigers and Mariners. It’s a race that could come down to the season’s final days, given the recent struggles by Kansas City and Minnesota and Detroit’s surge.

Here’s all the context you need to know for the stretch run:

How do the tiebreakers work?
The tiebreakers actually put the Twins in a very good spot, because they would win every possible two-team tiebreaker, three-team tiebreaker and even the four-team tiebreaker within this group.

That’s due to their winning head-to-head season record against the Royals (7-6), Tigers (7-6) and Mariners (5-2), which gives them each of the two-team tiebreakers. The three-team and four-team tiebreaker rules stipulate that any team with a winning record against all other teams involved will come out on top — and thus, that will always be the Twins.

All of that means that two of those teams would need to finish ahead of the Twins outright for Minnesota not to make it — especially since tiebreaker “Game 163” contests are no longer played.

How do the teams’ remaining schedules look?
KC: vs. Giants (1 game), at Nationals (3), at Braves (3)
MIN: at Red Sox (2), vs. Marlins (3), vs. Orioles (3)
DET: at Orioles (1), vs. Rays (3), vs. White Sox (3)
SEA: at Rangers (1), at Astros (3), vs. Athletics (3)

If this Wild Card race comes down to the final series of the season, the Tigers appear to have a leg up because they finish at home against the White Sox, against whom they have a 9-1 record this season.

The Royals and Twins, meanwhile, finish against very tough opponents in the Braves and Orioles, respectively — though it will help Minnesota considerably if Baltimore continues to fall out of the AL East picture, which might leave Twins fans in the odd (and uncomfortable) scenario of rooting for the Yankees.

Why is that? If the Orioles aren’t competing for the AL East by those final three games, they may be more incentivized to line up their pitching and roster for the postseason instead of coming at the Twins at full strength, which would obviously help Minnesota if it is still clawing for one of the Wild Card spots.

How does the Twins’ pitching line up for the final week?
If the Twins stay in rotation order, they would have Pablo López lined up for Friday’s game against the Orioles, and Bailey Ober for Sunday’s regular-season finale — which is good if Minnesota still needs to win those games to make the postseason at all, but bad in terms of lining them up for a potential Wild Card Series.

López would still be in line to pitch a potential Game 2, but Ober would need to pitch on short rest to maybe be available for a potential Game 3 if he does, indeed, have to pitch the regular-season finale against Baltimore.

If the Twins clinch before then to allow them to skip Ober that day and have him available to pitch Game 1, that would be key for their hopes for a deeper run.

What are the possible playoff outcomes?
If the Twins stay in their current slot (the No. 6 seed), they’ll almost certainly travel to Houston for a first-round matchup against the No. 3 seed Astros.

If they’re able to pass the Royals for the No. 5 seed, that would almost certainly line them up for a trip to Baltimore, to face the No. 4 seed Orioles.