Phoenix Mercury coach expects to face top teams Sun or Lynx in WNBA playoffs

Phoenix Mercury coach Nate Tibbetts believes his team will face either Connecticut or Minnesota when the WNBA playoffs’ first round begins on Sept. 22.

The seventh-place Mercury (17-17) earned a postseason berth after its 74-66 win over the No. 9 Atlanta Dream (11-22), splitting their four-game season series Tuesday.

Phoenix also was helped when the No. 4 Las Vegas Aces’ defeated No. 8 Chicago Sky, which has lost seven straight and has the same record as Atlanta, fighting for the final playoff spot.

“We know we want to do work in the playoffs,” Tibbetts said after the game Tuesday. “We know we’re gonna start on the road. I don’t know if it’s gonna be Minnesota or Connecticut, but we do have confidence in our group that we can go get one.”

The Mercury are among seven WNBA teams who’ve clinched a playoff spot. However, the seedings aren’t set yet, as all the other locked playoff teams have seven regular-season games left. Phoenix has six.

Besides two-time defending champion Las Vegas, other teams entering the playoffs are the No. 1 New York Liberty, No. 2 Connecticut, No. 3 Minnesota and No. 5 Seattle. The Mercury, which haven’t been higher than sixth place all season, are half a game behind No. 6 Indiana (17-16). The Fever are the league’s hottest team. They’re on a four-game win streak and have won six of their seven games since the league’s Olympic break ended in mid-August.

The playoff seeding matchups are Nos. 1-8, 2-9, 3-6, and 4-5.

The Sun and Lynx, both 24-9, have been shuffling between second and third place for most of the season. New York (26-7) has been the top since June, and Tankathon ranks New York’s remaining strength of schedule 10th, so their likely going to be the top seed.

In the best-of-three first round series, there’s a 2-1 format in which the higher seed gets home court advantage.

Phoenix hasn’t played entirely well, going 4-5 since the break and hasn’t been more than two games over the .500 mark. They’ve dealt with injuries all season, including their starting wing Bec Allen (right hamstring) who’s missed all nine games after the break.

Tibbetts sounds highly confident coming off a win to break the Mercury’s three-game skid. Phoenix has not played well against Connecticut or Minnesota this season, the exception is the Mercury’s 81-80 home win over the Lynx, in which Kahleah Copper hit a buzzer-beating 3.

In their two other matchups, the Lynx won at home by a nearly 19-point average, led by their MVP candidate Napheesa Collier. Connecticut has dominated the Mercury by an average 20-point margin in the first three of their four-game season series. The Sun’s regular-season finale is in Phoenix on Sept. 13.

Tibbetts acknowledged the Mercury have lacked continuity.

“The thing is it’s kind of a new group,” Tibbetts said. “I think we only have maybe three players from last year.”

Tibbetts is referring to Diana Taurasi, Brittney Griner and Sophie Cunningham.

Even though the Lynx are returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2021, they have the league’s third-best defense and No. 4 offense, and are led by Cheryl Reeve, the league’s longest-tenured coach with one team since 2010.

Connecticut has three All-Stars in their top duo Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, as well as top big Brionna Jones, who’ve played together since 2019.

However, Phoenix has taken a big step forward under Tibbetts after missing the playoffs last year with the league’s worst record, 9-31.

“I would be disappointed if we weren’t in the playoffs,” Tibbetts said. “We’ve got a really good roster. Our front office has done a hell of a job. I’m hoping for some continuity as far as getting some people back, just for us to get into a rhythm. Our goal all year is let’s be healthy and playing our best basketball when we go into the playoffs.”

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Phoenix Mercury coach predicts facing Sun or Lynx in WNBA playoffs