Phillies’ roster decisions for 2024 postseason

This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The Phillies got to Milwaukee on Monday with rolled-up plastic sheeting hanging from the ceiling in the visitors’ clubhouse at American Family Field. They had an outside shot to clinch their first National League East title in 13 years in Milwaukee, so the Brewers’ clubhouse staff wanted to be prepared for a champagne celebration.

The Phils will not clinch the division in Milwaukee anymore, though they could clinch a postseason berth today. Instead, they hope the division celebration happens before the end of the weekend at Citi Field in New York.

Their magic number for winning the NL East is four with 11 games to play.

The Phillies have said all the right things as they inch closer to a NL East title: “We haven’t won anything yet … we still have a job to do … nothing is over until it’s over.”

All true. But FanGraphs gives the Phillies a 99.9 percent chance to win the NL East. It gives them a 93.7 percent chance to clinch a first-round bye.

So, why not take an early look at how the Phillies might set their 26-man postseason roster?

Let’s start with the pitching staff. If the Phils clinch a first-round bye and go straight to the NL Division Series, they could carry 13 pitchers, which is what they have done in the NLDS in each of the past two postseasons.

Twelve pitchers are safe bets to make the roster:

Right-handers (six): Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, Aaron Nola, José Ruiz, Taijuan Walker, Zack Wheeler

Left-handers (six): José Alvarado, Tanner Banks, Cristopher Sánchez, Matt Strahm, Ranger Suárez

If they want 13, the last spot could go to left-hander Kolby Allard or right-handers Max Lazar, Tyler Gilbert or Spencer Turnbull, who has not pitched since June 26 because of an injured right shoulder. Turnbull threw 64 pitches in Clearwater, Fla., on Tuesday. There is a chance that he could make a rehab appearance this weekend in Triple-A Lehigh Valley, but his return is not imminent.

“He still has some more work to do,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said.

But are the Phillies better with one of those four arms on the roster, or with an extra bench bat? Based on how Thomson is using his bench this month, 14 position players makes sense. Thomson in the seventh inning on Monday burned Buddy Kennedy as a pinch-hitter for Cal Stevenson. The Brewers brought in right-hander Colin Rea to face Kennedy, then Thomson pinch-hit Kody Clemens for Kennedy.

“Burning a player, you force a team to bring in a reliever, so you get the next hitter matchup, that gives you some flexibility there,” Thomson said. “And you’re not running too short on your bench.”

Austin Hays has out since Sept. 2 because of a kidney infection. Thomson said more than once that Hays might not play again in the regular season, but he took a significant step forward on Tuesday.

“The infection is gone,” Thomson said. “He feels great. He’s back to normal.”

Hays will meet the team in New York, where he will go through a full workout. If it goes well, he could play in rehab games this weekend with Lehigh Valley. If he is not ready, Hays could face live pitching next week at Citizens Bank Park.

Either way, Thomson said he feels better about Hays’ chances of playing in the postseason.

If Hays returns, there are four players looking to fill two bench spots, if Philly carries 14 position players: Clemens, Kennedy, Stevenson and Weston Wilson. Kennedy got optioned to Triple-A on Tuesday, following Edmundo Sosa’s return from the IL, so he is probably fourth on the list. But Clemens, Stevenson and Wilson each can make their own cases.

As always, the opponent’s rotation and bullpen will influence the Phillies’ roster makeup.