Odds on MLB Draft No. 1 overall pick 2024

With the MLB Draft Combine in the rearview mirror, time is ticking down to when the Guardians will be on the clock with the No. 1 overall pick on Sunday. The 2024 Draft will be broadcast live from Fort Worth, Texas, with a pregame show at 6 p.m. ET on MLB Network and ESPN (as well as MLB.TV, MLB.com and in the MLB App) and the Draft at 7 p.m. ET. Every pick on Day 2 (Monday) and Day 3 (Tuesday) can be seen starting at 2 p.m. ET both days on MLB.TV, MLB.com and in the MLB App.

College prospects have moved front and center when it comes to who will be taken off the board first. MLB.com’s Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo discussed the subject in more detail on the latest MLB Pipeline Podcast.

Although Oregon State’s Travis Bazzana (MLB’s No. 1 Draft prospect) and Georgia’s Charlie Condon (No. 2) traded top Draft prospect status leading up to the event, they’ve both continued to gain momentum.

Condon won the 2024 Golden Spikes Award over fellow top collegiate prospects Bazzana and Arkansas left-handed pitcher Hagan Smith (No. 5). But if there’s going to be a pitcher taken No. 1 overall, Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns (No. 6) might have the edge.

Here are our experts’ best estimations of the odds for every player with a real chance to be selected No. 1 overall:

Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State (No. 1)
Callis 38% | Mayo 40%
Callis: “I do think he fits the model better than the other players. I do think there’s some leverage because I don’t think he goes until [No.] 4 if he doesn’t go [No.] 1.”

Mayo: “I still think that he is the favorite to go No. 1. I think that he’s the kind of player the Guardians like, and I think when push comes to shove, they’re going to find the right combination of this is the player they like and the money they’re hoping to spend with that pick.”

Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia (No. 2)
Callis 26% | Mayo 23%
Callis: “One, I think he’s the best player in the Draft, and he would make a lot of sense for the Guardians. I think they should take him No. 1. They have so much money they should just take the best player. And it’s weird because you don’t hear his name mentioned with them that much. … Now I’m starting to think they are on him more then the lack of noise would indicate.”

Mayo: “I could easily see it being the kind of thing where you don’t hear about it much, and then they just go and take him. And it’s not like they are putting other names out there to help his bargaining or negotiations or anything like that.”

Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida (No. 3)
Callis 8% | Mayo 11%
Callis: “I don’t think it’s impossible. I do think there’s a possibility that he wants to go No. 1. I think he might be more open to a deal than say Charlie Condon would be, and that power would look nice in Cleveland. I don’t really think it happens when it comes down to it.”

JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia (No. 4)
Callis 27% | Mayo 25%
Callis: “I don’t think there’s that much difference in JJ Wetherholt and Travis Bazzana as players. I think Bazzana has got a little more power. I think Wetherholt has got more speed and athleticism, more of a chance to play shortstop, but I don’t really think he’s a shortstop. … Of all the guys we talked about, you could save the most money with JJ Wetherholt.”

The rest of the field: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas (No. 5), Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest (No. 6), Konnor Griffin, OF/SS, Jackson Prep (Flowood, Miss.) (No. 9)
Callis 1% | Mayo 1%
Mayo: “I came very close to leaving nothing on the table here for the field because I really don’t see any scenario where it’s not one of those four players.”