NFL Week 6 Predictions | Opta Analyst

With the help of our supercomputer, we’re revealing all our NFL predictions for every game each week of the 2024 season.

Our projection model will be with us every step of the way this season, providing us with data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.

Of course, the Kansas City Chiefs are among the best bets when it comes to the title race, as Patrick Mahomes and company are chasing a third consecutive Super Bowl victory and their fourth in six seasons.

The Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans are some of those NFL teams hoping to challenge the Chiefs in the AFC, riding the play of their Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and C.J. Stroud.

Having frequently come so close to a title in recent years, the San Francisco 49ers entered the season as the favorites to come out of the NFC. Can they overcome their injuries? 

The Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings, and Philadelphia Eagles are potential challengers in what could be a wide-open conference race.

Now, all of that is a little far in the future to be given much consideration yet, but our AI-powered supercomputer is continuing to make predictions for every game this season.

This week begins with a matchup between NFC West rivals on Thursday Night Football, and it ends in with the Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets on Monday Night Football in the Jets first game since firing head coach Robert Saleh. For those games and every touchdown in between, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our model and come up with our predictions.

Each week throughout the 2024 NFL season, the supercomputer has something to say about every game. No matter if it’s a headliner or a game we may all be a bit less excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks, boldly dropping predictions for each.

This week, it has the Bears extending their winning streak in London, the Chargers defeating the Broncos in Denver, and the Lions picking up a big win in Dallas.

Keep in mind that these percentages move throughout the week as player news shake things up (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on our season-long predictions page.

Thursday Night Football

San Francisco 49ers 57.2% at Seattle Seahawks 42.8%

The 49ers have won five straight games against the Seahawks (including postseason), their longest win streak against Seattle in the series. San Francisco has scored 148 points over the five games, its most against Seattle over five games all time.

Sunday’s Schedule

Jacksonville Jaguars 42.3% vs. Chicago Bears 57.7% (in London)

The Bears had a time of possession of 35:01 in their recent win over the Panthers, their 11th game since last season with at least 33 minutes of possession. That is the most such games of any NFL team since 2023.

Washington Commanders 27.9% at Baltimore Ravens 72.1%

At 30 years old, Derrick Henry is looking to lead the NFL in rushing yards per game for a third
time in his career (114.4). Only four running backs have ever averaged 100 rushing yards per
game in a season when turning 30 or older: Tiki Barber, Corey Dillon, Curtis Martin and
Walter Payton (min. 75% team games played).

The Ravens are second in the NFL in EVE (behind only the idle Minnesota Vikings), while the Commanders rank eighth. EVE measures the average yards gained or prevented by a team compared to the league-wide projected yards in the given situation.

Arizona Cardinals 31.7% at Green Bay Packers 68.3%

Jordan Love has passed for 200+ yards and a touchdown in 14 consecutive games, doubling the NFL’s next-closest active streak. It marks the second-longest streak in Packers’ history, trailing only Aaron Rodgers’ 19-game streak during 2010-12.

Houston Texans 68.1% at New England Patriots 31.9%

C.J. Stroud has had eight games with 300 or more passing yards since the start of last season (including each of the last two games), the most such games by any player over this span. The Texans are 6-2 when Stroud throws for 300 or more yards.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 58.1% at New Orleans Saints 41.9%

The Buccaneers have won three of their last four meetings with the Saints, holding them under 20 points in each win. Prior to that stretch, New Orleans had won seven games in a row against Tampa Bay, scoring at least 28 points in six of the seven games.

Cleveland Browns 24.2% at Philadelphia Eagles 75.8%

The Eagles are 9-1 versus AFC opponents since 2022 – only the Ravens have a higher interconference win percentage over the span (10-1). Jalen Hurts has posted a career passer rating of 101.2 against AFC foes compared to 87.2 against NFC teams.

Indianapolis Colts 52.1% at Tennessee Titans 47.9%

The Colts had lost five in a row to the Titans before sweeping last season’s meetings, though they were decided by a total of 10 points and Indianapolis needed overtime to win at Tennessee. The Titans have held a second-half lead in each of the last 10 meetings.

Los Angeles Chargers 57.4% at Denver Broncos 42.6%

The Broncos have won the last five and nine of the last 10 games in which they’ve hosted the Chargers. With another win, Denver would match its longest home winning streak against the Chargers since 2000 (six straight from 2000-05).

Pittsburgh Steelers 57.7% at Las Vegas Raiders 42.3%

Justin Fields is the fifth Steelers quarterback to throw for at least five touchdowns and rush
for three touchdowns in the team’s first five games of a season, joining Kordell Stewart
(1997), Bubby Brister (1988), Terry Bradshaw (1973) and Jim Finks (1952).

Atlanta Falcons 65.5% at Carolina Panthers 34.5%

The Falcons are 36-22 against the Panthers all time, their best win percentage against any NFC opponent in franchise history. These teams have split the season series in four straight seasons – prior to this stretch, Atlanta had won five straight against Carolina.

Detroit Lions 56.3% at Dallas Cowboys 43.7%

The Lions have recorded 350+ total net yards in eight consecutive games dating back to last season, the longest active streak in the NFL. If they reach this mark again, it will match the Lions’ most consecutive games with at least 350 net yards since 1953-54.

Sunday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals 57.2% at New York Giants 42.8%

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins each scored two touchdowns in Week 5, the first Bengals duo with multiple receiving touchdowns in the same game since Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh in Week 2, 2007.

Monday Night Football

Buffalo Bills 55.2% at New York Jets 44.8%

The Jets have won their last two home matchups against the Bills, holding Buffalo under 20 points with 5.0 sacks each game. These are the only two instances in the past five seasons when a team has held the Bills under 20 points while registering at least 5.0 sacks.

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. Be sure to check out our MLB, NBA, NFL and college football coverage. And follow us on X and Instagram for more!