NFL Week 5 Predictions: Which Teams Are Projected to Win?

With the help of our supercomputer, we’re revealing all our NFL predictions for every game each week of the 2024 season.

Our projection model will be with us every step of the way this season, providing us with data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.

Of course, the Kansas City Chiefs are among the best bets when it comes to the title race, as Patrick Mahomes and company are chasing a third consecutive Super Bowl victory and their fourth in six seasons.

The Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets and Houston Texans are some of those NFL teams hoping to challenge the Chiefs in the AFC, riding the play of their Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers and C.J. Stroud.

Having frequently come so close to a title in recent years, the San Francisco 49ers entered the season as the favorites to come out of the NFC. Can they overcome their injuries?

The Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings, and Philadelphia Eagles are potential challengers in what could be a wide-open conference race.

Now, all of that is a little far in the future to be given much consideration yet, but our AI-powered supercomputer is continuing to make predictions for every game this season.

This week begins with a matchup between NFC South rivals on Thursday Night Football, and it ends in Kansas City on Monday Night Football. For those games and every touchdown in between, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our model and come up with our predictions.

Each week throughout the 2024 NFL season, the supercomputer has something to say about every game. No matter if it’s a headliner or a game we may all be a bit less excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks, boldly dropping predictions for each.

This week it has the Ravens extending their winning streak in Cincinnati, the Bills defeating the Texans in Houston, and the Jaguars picking up their first win of the season against the Colts.

Keep in mind that these percentages move throughout the week as player news shakes things up (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on our season-long predictions page.

Thursday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45.7% at Atlanta Falcons 54.3%

The Buccaneers are 4-1 in their last five games in Atlanta. In their previous matchup, Baker
Mayfield led a game-winning touchdown drive in the final minute, Tampa Bay’s only win after
trailing at any point in the fourth quarter since last season (1-9 record in such games).

Sunday’s Schedule

New York Jets 42.4% at Minnesota Vikings 57.6%

The Vikings have a 40.0% conversion rate on 3rd-and-10+ yards this season, best in the
NFL. Sam Darnold has a passer rating of 112.7 on third down this season, fourth highest in
the NFL (min. 20 att.). Entering 2024, Darnold had a career 77.5 passer rating on third down.

Carolina Panthers 35.9% at Chicago Bears 64.1%

The Bears are 8-3 against the Panthers, their best record against any active franchise. Chicago has won all six games they’ve hosted vs. Carolina and they’ve held the Panthers without a scrimmage touchdown in their last three meetings at Soldier Field.

Baltimore Ravens 53.8% at Cincinnati Bengals 46.2%

Baltimore won both meetings with the Bengals last year, totaling 400+ yards in each game.
The last time the Ravens lost a game to Cincinnati in which they netted 400+ yards was
Week 2 of 2018, which was also the rivalry’s final clash between Joe Flacco and Andy
Dalton. The Ravens lead the NFL in EVE, which measures the average yards gained or prevented by a team compared to the league-wide projected yards in the given situation.

Buffalo Bills 51.5% at Houston Texans 48.5%

The Bills defeated the Texans 40-0 when the teams last met in Week 4, 2021, the Bills’ last
shutout win and second-largest win in team history (42-0 in Week 9, 1990 at Browns). It
marked the Texans’ largest loss in franchise history.

Indianapolis Colts 38.8% at Jacksonville Jaguars 61.2%

The Jaguars have won nine straight home games against the Colts in the last 10 seasons. A
Jacksonville win on Sunday would mark the most home wins by a team versus any
opponent since the start of the 2015 season.

Miami Dolphins 45.1% at New England Patriots 54.9%

The Dolphins have won six of their last seven meetings with the Patriots dating back to
Week 15, 2020 – Miami’s first time winning six of seven versus New England since between
Week 6, 1999 and Week 5, 2002.

Cleveland Browns 39.0% at Washington Commanders 61.0%

Cleveland is 17-5-1 against Washington as visitors, the best road record by a
team versus any single opponent in NFL history (min. 15 road matchups, current franchises
only). In the last meeting in Week 17 of 2022, Deshaun Watson threw three touchdowns
passes, two to Amari Cooper, en route to a 24-10 win.

Las Vegas Raiders 38.7% at Denver Broncos 61.3%

The Raiders have won eight straight games against the Broncos since moving to Vegas in
2020, their longest active win streak against a single opponent. This is also tied for the
Raiders’ third-longest win streak against a single team in franchise history (14 vs. Broncos
1965-71; 10 vs. Chargers 1972-77).

Arizona Cardinals 25.8% at San Francisco 49ers 74.2%

Through three career starts, Brock Purdy has yet to turn the ball over to the Cardinals and
the 49ers have won all three games. For his career, Purdy has a 13-0 record when he starts
and does not throw an interception or lose a fumble. He also leads the league in passing EVE so far this season.

Green Bay Packers 57.4% at Los Angeles Rams 42.6%

The Packers have won nine of their last 10 meetings with the Rams dating back to 2007 (including postseason). Eight of those wins have been by double-digit points, Green Bay’s
most such victories against any non-divisional opponent over that span.

New York Giants 29.6% at Seattle Seahawks 70.4%

The Seahawks have held the Giants to 17 or fewer points in each of their last six matchups since 2013 (Seattle is 5-1). It is tied for Seattle’s second-longest streak of holding an opponent to 17 or fewer points in team history (active streak of seven vs. Eagles).

Sunday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys 42.4% at Pittsburgh Steelers 57.6%

The Steelers and Cowboys have played only six games since they met in Super Bowl XXX (three wins each), with the last five matchups being decided by seven or fewer points. Pittsburgh has generated at least one double-digit win against every team except Dallas since 2000.

Monday Night Football

New Orleans Saints 32.7% at Kansas City Chiefs 67.3%

The Chiefs have won three straight games against the Saints dating back to 2012. Kansas City has scored 20+ points in seven straight games against New Orleans, its second-longest active streak (eight straight against Rams).

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. Be sure to check out our MLB, NBA, NFL and college football coverage. And follow us on X and Instagram for more!