Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction | Opta Analyst

The Opta supercomputer expects Arsenal to come out on top at Newcastle United. Can Mikel Arteta’s side end a two-game winless run in the Premier League? Learn more in our Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction and preview.

Newcastle vs Arsenal Stats: The Key Insights

• Arsenal triumphed in 47.0% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
• Newcastle have won two of their last three Premier League home matches against Arsenal.
• Arsenal have conceded nine goals in their last five top-flight games, more than they had in their previous 19 combined.

Arsenal will hope a new month brings better fortunes when they travel to Newcastle for Saturday’s early kick-off.

Mikel Arteta’s side won just one league game in October, a 3-1 home victory over struggling Southampton. But that preceded a disappointing defeat to Bournemouth and an entertaining 2-2 draw with Liverpool.

Bukayo Saka and Mikel Merino were both on target in the draw against fellow Premier League title challengers Liverpool at the Emirates Stadium, but the hosts were twice pegged back by goals from Virgil van Dijk and Mohamed Salah.

That leaves Arsenal five points adrift of leaders Manchester City heading into this weekend, and four behind Arne Slot’s Reds. Arteta will demand to see some improvements at St. James’ Park.

His side have conceded nine goals in their last five Premier League games, more than they had in their previous 19 combined (8). They’ve also shipped 2+ goals in four games across the same period, as many times as they had in their previous 27.

Those defensive struggles have not been helped by availability issues. Both Gabriel Magalhães and Jurriën Timber limped off against Liverpool, with William Saliba missing through suspension. In other Arsenal team news, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Kieran Tierney and Riccardo Calafiori all remain out injured, too.

Timber returned for Wednesday’s 3-0 hammering of Preston North End in the EFL Cup fourth round. Saliba also made his return from suspension. Their comebacks should help an Arsenal defence that has conceded 40% of their league goals via a set-piece (4/10, excluding penalties). That’s the highest ratio in the division, which is ironic given how dangerous they are from set-pieces at the other end.

In attack, Saka has created the most chances this Premier League season (27). He’s also one of four players with double figures for goal involvements this term (3G 7A). The England winger has either scored or assisted a goal in 10 of his last 12 league games, including seven of eight this season.

Saka’s heroics have masked the significant absence of captain Martin Ødegaard. He will be expected to step up once more as Arsenal look to avoid losing two consecutive away league games for the first time since May 2022. The second game in that run came against Newcastle.

Eddie Howe’s side lost their last home outing, going down 1-0 to Brighton, with Danny Welbeck grabbing the solitary goal. Defeat in that match ended an 11-game unbeaten run at St. James’ Park in the Premier League. They then followed that defeat up with a 2-1 loss away to Chelsea, leaving them winless in five top-flight matches.

That is Newcastle’s longest streak without a win since August/September 2022 (6). As a result, Howe’s men sit 12th in the table after an inconsistent start to the campaign.

Alexander Isak, at least, found the net for the first time since his injury return. The Swede scored a first-half leveller at Chelsea and netted again against the same side in Wednesday’s 2-0 EFL Cup success. Isak now averages a goal every 133 minutes in the Premier League for Newcastle; only Andrew Cole (one every 121 minutes) has a better average for the Magpies in the competition.

Isak has also scored 11 goals in his last 11 league appearances at St James’ Park, and will need to continue delivering after Callum Wilson suffered another injury setback recently. Kieran Trippier, Martin Dúbravka, Sven Botman and Jamaal Lascelles are the others missing on Saturday due to fitness issues.

Newcastle vs Arsenal Head-to-Head

Newcastle have won two of their last three Premier League home games against Arsenal (L1), as many as they had in their previous 19 such meetings (D7 L10).

Howe’s side were 1-0 victors in this exact fixture last season thanks to Anthony Gordon’s controversial winner that prompted outrage from Arsenal. The VAR checked whether there was a foul or offside in the build-up, and if the ball had gone out of play. But the goal still stood.

The Gunners will be confident of getting revenge here. They haven’t lost consecutive away league games against Newcastle since their first three such visits in the Premier League between 1994 and 1996.

Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction

The Opta supercomputer leans significantly in the favour of Arsenal, who triumphed in 47.0% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Newcastle ended their five-game winless run in 27.9% of the same data-led sims, with the draw less likely in 25.1%.

In Opta’s end-of-season predictions, Arsenal finish third most often at 51.1%. Newcastle’s likeliest finish proved to be seventh at 14.7%.

Newcastle vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.

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