New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces » Winsidr

The No. 1 New York Liberty will take on the No. 4 Las Vegas Aces in a rematch of the 2023 Finals, after first-round 2-0 takedowns of the Atlanta Dream and Seattle Storm, respectively. New York swept the season series against Las Vegas, 3-0, winning 90-82 (6/15/24), 79-67 (8/17/24), and 75-71 (9/8/24).

Series Schedule:

Game One: Barclays Center – 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 29 (ABC)
Game Two: Barclays Center – TBD on Tuesday, October 1 (TBD)
Game Three: Gateway Center Arena – 9:30 p.m. ET on Friday, October 4 (ESPN2)
Game Four (if necessary): Barclays Center – TBD on Sunday, October 6 (TBD)
Game Five (if necessary): Barclays Center – TBD on Tuesday, October 8 (ESPN2)

Matchups We Can’t Wait to Watch

Myles: It’s got to start with Stew’ja, whose friendship and on-court dominance took center stage at the Olympics this past summer. A’ja Wilson, who took home this year’s MVP award – her third – in unanimous fashion, has had a campaign for the ages, her 26.9 points per game (PPG) setting the all-time WNBA mark (while also becoming the first player to score more than 1,000 points in a season). Breanna Stewart, after an uncharacteristic shooting start, has found her form again, knocking down 40 percent of her triples across the second half of the season. Defensively, she’s also been as strong as ever, utilized more as a second-level roamer to help protect the rim. If Jonquel Jones is able to stay anchored to Wilson – an unenviable task and a large ask – Stewart could have the space needed to help the Liberty to avenge last year’s loss.

Chelsea: Myles is right, Stewie and A’ja are a fantastic pair to watch. Yet, the battle in the backcourt will also be an intriguing one. The Las Vegas Aces has Chelsea Gray leading them, and we all know how much the Point Gawd loves a playoff game. On top of that, Gray couldn’t finish the series in 2023 against the Liberty after sustaining a lower leg injury that ended her season prematurely. She has unfinished business here. On the other side, Sabrina Ionescu broke a franchise record in the Liberty’s series-clinching win over Atlanta, scoring 36 points to boost New York to the semi’s. It’s going to be a fun battle in the backcourt.

X-Factors

Chelsea: In round one, I said Wilson was the Aces’ X-factor… and that has not changed. Only difference now is that Wilson is officially the unanimous MVP. Going up against Jones and Stewart in the post, the Aces’ success will depend on how Wilson can operate. There have been several times this season where Wilson has had to carry this team, but now with Gray looking more like herself, it won’t be all on Wilson. Another huge factor in every loss the Aces have had to the Liberty this season has been the defense. They will have to step that up if they want to beat their New York rivals.

Myles: After so much was made about the perimeter defense in last year’s matchup, New York’s latest addition to the starting lineup, Leonie Fiebich, is the ultimate answer.

TINY SAMPLE ALERT (!), but here’s how she performed in her first two postseason starts against Atlanta, a +43 across the two games that New York won by 14 and 9 points, respectively. Fiebich knocked down 10 of 12 shots, six of seven from deep, and both free throws for silly 83/86/100 splits, while also providing strong individual defense with her 6’4 frame on the other end. 

See Also

With Fiebich on the court, the Liberty don’t need to stress about matchups in transition. They’re incredibly switchable, and they have the physicality to blow up actions, as we saw both Fiebich and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton do time and again against Atlanta. Definitely an x-factor alert here, for New York.

Bold Predictions

Myles: The Liberty get revenge for the Aces celebrating on their home floor in 2023 by returning the favor in 2024, taking the series in four games before returning to Brooklyn to await the winner of Connecticut and Minnesota.

Chelsea: I’m not sure saying this series will go to five games is a “bold” prediction, but I’m making it one anyway. This series is going to be a battle, start to finish. There is so much difference in the circumstances this year compared to the 2023 finals series between the Aces and Liberty. First, it’s a semi-final, so the eagerness of both teams to make it to the finals is high. Las Vegas is on a quest for the three-peat, and especially after a rocky year, have the motivation. The Liberty on the other hand want to win their first ever championship, and this is their best team in decades. The stakes are higher than ever, the emotions will be high, and it’s shaping up to be some of the best basketball the WNBA has ever seen.