New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream » Winsidr

The No. 1 New York Liberty took the season series from the No. 8 Atlanta Dream, 3-1. The Dream’s lone win against the Liberty came in the season finale when the Liberty relied on their bench more throughout the game with the No. 1 seed locked up.

Series Schedule:

Game One: Barclays Center – 1:00 p.m. ET on September 22 (ESPN)
Game Two: Barclays Center – 7:30 p.m. ET on September 24 (ESPN)
Game Three (if necessary): Gateway Center Arena – TBD on September 26 (ESPN2)

Matchups We Can’t Wait to Watch

Myles: Sabrina Ionescu played most of this season at an All-WNBA level, climbing to MVP talks in her electric first-half start. She looked just as strong upon her return from France, gold medal in tow, until a neck injury forced her to miss two games. Here are her numbers pre-injury vs. post-injury, and you can see the stark contrast:

Before the neck injury (26 games): 19.9 points per game (PPG), 4.4 rebounds per game (RPG), 6.0 assists per game (APG), 3.0 three pointers made per game (3PM), 42.7/35.7/90.4 shooting splits

After the neck injury (11 games): 14.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 6.6 APG, 2.5 3PM, 31.2/27.8/87.5 shooting splits

For the Liberty to be at their best, they need Ionescu playing up to the All-W level we saw for two-thirds of this season. Although the final regular season game (which was an exhibition for New York, even as Atlanta fought for its lives) did slant the small-sample numbers a bit, it’s worth noting that the Dream held Ionescu to her worst scoring numbers this season, just 12.3 PPG on 30.9 percent shooting (and 29.6 percent from deep). 

A huge reason for that: the defensive ability of Allisha Gray, who is among the W’s best in her ability to navigate screens and deny easy catch-and-shoot opportunities. Ionescu, especially when playing alongside Courtney Vandersloot, feasts off the ball, thriving as she sends trail defenders through an obstacle course of bodies as she finds open pockets in the defense. If Gray can stay attached, Atlanta can stay honest with their largest mismatches, which come against the Breanna Stewart/Jonquel Jones frontcourt.

Michael: If you love defense, you love watching Betnijah Laney-Hamilton. It’s as simple as that. She’s a lockdown defender, taking on the best wing on a night-to-night basis. For the Dream, that means that they’ll have to continue to work through their half-court offense with their staggered screens to free up Rhyne Howard, who will likely be Laney-Hamilton’s primary defender. To start the season, when Atlanta was forced to use Haley Jones as its primary point guard, the Dream played inside out and were stagnant offensively, resulting in fewer offensive looks for Howard. With Jordin Canada running the show, the Dream rank No. 8 in the league in scoring, up from their dead-last mark for the season. If they want to steal a game and send it back to Atlanta for a Game 3, the offense will have to run through Howard with Allisha Gray and Tina Charles serving as complementary pieces.

Who on the Dream can match up with Stewart? The Dream have been adjusting their starters all season, with Nia Coffey, Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, and most recently Naz Hillmon earning starts at the four. Hillmon has a motor, but can she slow down – no one can stop Stewie – enough, or will they look to put Howard on Stewart and Hillmon on Laney-Hamilton? The high-volume lineup of Howard, Gray, Hillmon, Charles, and Canada has returned a 90.6 defensive rating for Atlanta in 106 minutes – their most-used lineup – which is the sixth-best defensive lineup they have. While the lineup has the best offensive rating mark (106) for the Dream, it’s also their slowest lineup at a pace of 93.55. Against the league’s No. 2 scoring offense, that’s less than ideal.

X-Factors

Myles: *taps the mic* It’s time for Leonie Fiebich to become a household name. I spent a majority of the last week of the regular season spreading the gospel, spamming awards voters who may not have had the privilege of watching Fiebich on a nightly basis. With her mark of 43.3 percent shooting from three, she ranked third in the WNBA among players with at least 100 three-point attempts, as well as third all-time among rookies. 

Leonie Fiebich currently ranks third all-time in three-point percentage by a rookie, with two regular season games to go, among shooters with 100+ attempts. With that same volume criteria, she’s also third in the W, behind just Stef Dolson and Bridget Carleton. Not bad, rook! pic.twitter.com/HFh3TavFIy

— Myles (@MylesEhrlich) September 17, 2024

Her numbers are even sillier when you look at her play in transition, where she generated 1.568 points per possession (PPP), second only to Brittney Griner (though Fiebich’s sample was significantly larger: 42 shot attempts vs. six). She scored on 27 of those 42 attempts, good for 64.3 percent that jumped to 82.1 percent (!) when you calculated effective field goal percentage, thanks to her transition three prowess. Fiebich knocked down 15 of 27 threes against backpedaling defenders, always quick to set her feet and let fly. If New York can get out and run, which should be possible against a middle-of-the-pack Dream defense that surrendered 9.8 fast break points per game, the opportunities should be there for Fiebich.

Michael: Gray is very familiar with Jones. During the All-Star Game skills competition, Gray said as much to Jones. Best believe that the rest of the Dream are familiar with Jones’ game, too. Jones will be the key for the series – especially keeping her off of the glass. We know the stat by now. When Jones records a double-double, the Liberty don’t lose.

For the Dream, they’re going to rely on Canada to go blow-for-blow with Vandersloot as far as setting up the offense and finding the cutters. Canada’s explosiveness in her 20 games for Atlanta has upped the tempo offensively, and she’s forced the weak-side help to come over, allowing the bigs to slip to the hoop for an easy layup. Howard and Gray will get theirs. Charles will get her rebounds. But it’s on Canada’s shoulders to determine if the Dream will be able to keep pace with the Liberty. 

Bold Predictions

Myles: Barclays will be booming, and the Liberty will rise to the challenge. Not only will they sweep to ensure they don’t need to travel ahead of round two, but Stewart will put on an offensive display. We’ll see a Stewie 40-piece performance in one of these two games.

Michael: Last year, the Dream were in a similar situation as they find themselves in this year. On the road against the heavily-favored Dallas Wings. They lost Games 1 and 2, ending their season without hosting a home playoff game. This year, the same is expected against the No. 1 Liberty, but in a postseason that isn’t short on narratives and storylines, let’s add one more in here. The Dream will steal Game 1 against the Liberty, sending the series back to Atlanta for a decisive Game 3.