MLB Playoffs: The Four Factors Likely to Make a Difference in the League Championship Series

Baseball’s final four teams have started their own mini-tournament.

And it’s time to look at factors other than money – you’ve probably noticed this final group is three clubs with payrolls north of $240 million and a team from the AL Central – that should have an impact on who plays for the World Series title at the end of this month. 

But we’re not satisfied with traditional statistics, of course. We’ve chosen four metrics that go beyond traditional stats, and take advanced data to the next level, too.

Let’s jump in, but please note that the following metrics include the postseason (entering play on Monday).

Offensive Discipline+

1. 108.2 – New York Yankees
2. 107.8 – Los Angeles Dodgers
3. 99.1 – New York Mets
4. 96.2 – Cleveland Guardians

The quick definition: Discipline+ measures a hitter’s ability to lay off pitches outside of the zone and swing at pitches in the zone (league average being 100). Basically, how well does this team know what is and is not a strike?

Oh, and it does not take contact into consideration – this stat does not reward hitters for slapping a pitch a foot outside the strike zone the opposite way for a double down the line.

The Royals were one of the very worst teams in baseball in this statistic (93.9), which anecdotal evidence confirms after watching Kansas City hitters flail away at pitches they had little chance of making contact with during the Yankees series, especially in the final game of the division series.

Hitters’ best and worst tendencies tend to be on display in October – the extremes play in the postseason – and with the best pitchers working the edges of the zone in the biggest moments, knowing the strike zone is key. 

Here’s a stat that will surprise absolutely nobody: Juan Soto led all qualified hitters in discipline+ (132.7) and we’ll counter that with one that will surprise you: Gleyber Torres finished third (124.0) in the category. Aaron Judge, who posted the lowest strikeout percentage of his career (24.3%) was in the top 10, too, at 118.5. You’re starting to see why the Yankees rate so well in discipline+.

The Dodgers run such a veteran, October-tested lineup out there. I’m not one to say “experience is the most important thing” but when players have been in that postseason spotlight often – whether they’ve succeeded or failed – they generally learn to stay within their approach, and this is a stat where that experience will show in October. 

We’ll finish with a fun stat: The Mets struck out more than any other team in the division series round – 44 times in four games – but they also had the highest OPS (by far) of any team in that round, a robust .822.

Why is that, you might ask? We’ll come back to that in a moment. 

Bullpen Whiff+

1. 113.3 – New York Mets
2. 111.4 – Cleveland Guardians
3. 107.4 – New York Yankees
4. 106.6 – Los Angeles Dodgers

The quick definition: Whiff+ rates the ability of the pitcher to generate swings and misses compared to league average (100) and adjusted by pitch type. The ability to avoid contact in the late innings of postseason games is huge, so this stat makes sense to highlight for the relievers.

A broken-bat blooper can’t fall in for a hit if the batter doesn’t make contact, y’know?

We have seen some brilliant bullpen work lately, haven’t we? The Yankees’ relief crew didn’t allow a single earned run in the division series against Kansas City, giving up just eight hits and four walks, with 15 strikeouts in 15.2 innings. 

And the Dodgers? Starter Walker Buehler  gave up six runs versus the San Diego Padres in the second inning of Game 3 and then the LA pitching staff didn’t allow a single run in the final 24 innings of the series. Let’s put it this way: By the end of that five-game series vs. the Padres, seven different Dodgers relievers had thrown at least 1.0 inning with an ERA of 0.00, and those seven relievers had combined for 23 strikeouts in 20.2 innings of work. 

The Mets sit atop this metric as a team, largely because Edwin Diaz’s whiff+ is elite, checking in at 153, and Reed Garrett is outstanding, too, at 134. In the regular season, those two right-handers combined to strike out 167 opposing hitters in 111 innings. Diaz has been alternatively great and mistake-prone in playoff pressure, but he’s the guy the Mets are going to turn to when the game’s on the line, as early as the seventh inning. 

And Cleveland’s bullpen? That’s just an elite group of relievers. Sure, Emmanuel Clase gave up that rather shocking home run to Kerry Carpenter, but there hasn’t been a more dominating closer in baseball the past few years. 

Offensive BIP+

1. 124.2 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. 116.2 – New York Mets
3. 116.1 – New York Yankees
4. 77.9 – Cleveland Guardians

The quick definition: BIP+ measures which batters do the most damage when they make contact. Think of it as an advanced BABIP (batting average on balls in play), with more value given for, as an example, lining a double into the gap on an 0-2 pitch than on a 3-1 pitch.

One’s much harder than the other, right?

Remember that high OPS for the Mets? They had 12 extra-base hits in their four games against the Philadelphia Phillies – five doubles and seven home runs.

By Win Probability Added (WPA), Pete Alonso’s ninth-inning home run in Game 3 of the wild-card series in Milwaukee was the biggest hit so far of the playoffs, and Francisco Lindor’s grand slam in Game 4 of the division series was the third-biggest hit. Two of Mark Vientos’ home runs – in Games 1 and 2 against the Phillies – made the top 10, too. 

Effective balls in play, those were. That’s a helpful October habit the Mets have picked up.

Aaron Judge’s BIP+ number was just ridiculous in 2024, a typo-looking 301.7. For context, Shohei Ohtani – who had 54 homers and 411 total bases in the regular season – was at 247.8 and only two other players (Marcell Ozuna and Juan Soto) even bested the 200 mark. 

Big, big gap between the top three teams and Cleveland, obviously.

The Guardians have had a somewhat unlikely hero emerge this month, though, with ex-Washington Nationals outfielder Lane Thomas popping crooked-number home runs in key moments to even the field a bit. 

Starters Command+

1. 101.5 – New York Yankees
2. 101.3 – Los Angeles Dodgers
3. 100.5 – Cleveland Guardians
4. 99.1 – New York Mets

The quick definition: Command+ rates the ability of the pitcher to throw the pitch in his intended area, adjusted by pitch type. Have a plan and execute that plan. Again, with the league average being 100. 

The better command+ your starter has, the deeper he can work into the game. We won’t pretend that baseball today is the same as it was a few decades ago, when you could not win in the postseason without at least three or four strong starting pitchers. But, y’know, it sure helps to have at least two or three, especially as we progress into October and move from a best-of-three series to a best-of-five series to the grueling best-of-seven formats in the LCS and World Series.

Especially against the quality of opponent that’s made it this far.

In contrast to the other data we’ve used, there just isn’t much of a gap between the team at No. 1 and the team at No. 4, and that’s pretty fascinating, too. The Mets check in last here, but the beauty of October is that, despite most of what we’re talking about today, past performance is not a predictor of the future.

Just ask Jose Quintana, who had a solid-not-great 3.75 ERA and 4.56 in 31 regular-season starts, but has been dominating in the postseason, rolling up a 0.00 ERA over 11 innings with 11 strikeouts and only six hits and three walks.

Probability of Winning the World Series

1. 33.6% – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. 30.2% – New York Yankees
3. 23.2% – Cleveland Guardians
4. 13.0% – New York Mets

(Entering Monday)

The quick definition: Our projection model calculates the win probabilities based primarily off the TRACR, which uses advanced metrics and other factors on offense and in run prevention (pitching and defense) to calculate how many runs per nine innings better or worse teams are compared to the league-average club during the season.

We’ve finally arrived at the seven-game series, where it’s harder to hide weaknesses over a longer grind. The Mets are on the low end of the scale after losing Game 1 to the Dodgers, but admittedly advanced analytics have yet to figure out how to quantify the Grimace factor, so don’t count them out yet, either. 

It’s going to be a fun few weeks, folks.

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