Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury » Winsidr

The WNBA Playoffs are officially here, and one of the matchups that we will see in the best-of-three first round is between the second-seeded Minnesota Lynx and the seventh-seeded Phoenix Mercury. 

During the regular season, the Lynx and Mercury squared off four times, with Minnesota owning that series 3-1. The Lynx won 95-71 in Minneapolis on May 31, 73-60 in Minneapolis on June 22 and 89-76 in Phoenix on Aug. 28. The Mercury won their lone game 81-80 on June 7. 

Before the squads face-off, we turn to our Winsidr reporters Mitchell Hansen and Ace Pedraza to take a dive into the series ahead. Hansen looks at things from the side of the Lynx while Pedraza views things from a Mercury lens.

Series Schedule: 

Game One: Target Center — 5 p.m. ET on September 22 (ESPN)
Game Two: Target Center — 9:30 p.m. ET on September 25 (ESPN)
Game Three (if necessary): Footprint Center — TBD on September 27 (ESPN2)

Matchups We Can’t Wait to Watch

MITCHELL: Most will look at this series and think of the likes of Napheesa Collier and Kayla McBride for Minnesota or Kahleah Copper, Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi for Phoenix, but the play at the point guard position is one I am looking forward to in this series. Yes, I am really intrigued to see McBride and Taurasi battle it out on both ends of the court and play a veteran player chess match, but the matchup between Minnesota’s Courtney Williams and Phoenix’s Natasha Cloud is one worth keeping an eye on.

In four games between Minnesota and Phoenix during the regular season, both players had all-around outings against each other. Williams averaged 11.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 0.8 steals while shooting 46.7 percent from the field against Phoenix. Cloud, on the other hand, averaged 9.8 points, 7.5 assists, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks while shooting 34.1 percent from the field. This matchup won’t headline the talented battles we’ll see in this series, but it will be entertaining to keep an eye on to see who will hold the advantage as floor general of their team. 

ACE: I adore watching battles between bigs, and this series provides a great one out the gate. Griner and Collier are sure to be hitting the glass often for their squads, and I am curious to see if Griner can stand her own against a much smoother, and much more aggressive, board grabber. Her shot blocking is what I’m most curious to see against a Lynx team that features a variety of ways of attacking you, but specifically one that operates behind a post scoring engine in Collier. 

In terms of guard play, it will be interesting to see how Natasha Cloud fares against such a distribution-heavy backcourt in Minnesota. Cloud, always atop leaderboards in assists, will have her hands full trying to counteract the Lynx’s offense which has averaged the most assists per game (APG) all season long. Phoenix, on the flip side, has struggled to get into a rhythm on offense at times and has focused on more iso-ball than actually moving the rock. I feel that Cloud will try her best to break that cycle as she has the postseason experience to know that holding the ball is not going to cut it as you try and advance. The Lynx’s dynamic guard play from Williams, McBride, and Natisha Hiedeman matches up a bit lopsidedly with Cloud, Taurasi, and Sophie Cunningham, with the advantage right now going to Minnesota. 

X-Factors

MITCHELL: There are a few routes I could go here and a few options I could choose from as X-Factors for the Lynx in this series—notably defense and the play of players like Bridget Carleton and Alanna Smith—but I’m going to choose the depth as being the biggest X-Factor for Minnesota in this series (and throughout the playoffs, really).

Minnesota’s depth has shown up big at various points in the season, whether it was Carleton coming off the bench early in the season to take over a starting role, Dorka Juhász transitioning from a starting spot to the bench in her second season, or the play among the second unit of players like Hiedeman, Cecilia Zandalasini and Myshia Hines-Allen. In the regular season, the Lynx bench averaged 19.3 points per game (PPG), the fourth-best mark in the WNBA. In this series and for as long as the Lynx are in the postseason, the bench and the strong depth on this team could come up big. 

ACE: No pun intended, but I do feel that getting into the game early, not allowing the Lynx any huge runs to start games one and two, and allowing for the Phoenix fans traveling to get their club into the contest will be big for the Mercury. The X-Factor is called that for a reason. 

Looking at the actual teams, though, a huge X-Factor for Phoenix will be getting Copper going. Copper, who is averaging 21.2 PPG along with 4.5 rebounds per game (RPG) and 2.3 assists per game (APG), is Phoenix’s swiss army knife. She can cut to the basket, shoot from outside, and hit clutch buckets. Defensively, she has the length to match up with Minnesota’s size 1-4, providing versatility to their defense and the schemes they implement to at least try and slow down players not named Collier. Additionally, I am very closely watching her three point shooting in this series, as that would greatly help offset Minnesota’s proficiency from deep. 

Copper has been in a slight slump since the All-Star break and since being a key player in Team USA’s win over France during the Olympics. So, I am cutting her some major slack. Copper strikes me as a player hungry to get back to the top of the summit, willing to lock in if it means proving that Phoenix is not your average seven seed. 

Bold Predictions

MITCHELL: Minnesota will stay hot and sweep the series 

Minnesota hasn’t just been one of the best teams in the WNBA this season, but the Lynx are red hot with a record of 13-2 in the 15 games out of the Olympic Break and are playing their best basketball of the season. On top of all of that and along with the top four ranked offense and defense, the Lynx are also a dominant team at home with a 16-4 record in the regular season (tied for best home record in the WNBA). 

With Games 1 and 2 being at Target Center, that alone will give an edge to Minnesota. And the way this team has been playing down the stretch of the season—that being with balanced offensive firepower, lockdown defense and impressive depth—will result in them taking both games in front of the Lynx faithful. If Phoenix is able to steal a game on the road in either of the first two contests, it will likely have its best chance in Game 1. But in the end, I think Minnesota will continue its stellar play and will be advancing to the semifinal round courtesy of a sweep of Phoenix. 

ACE: I’ll go against the grain, and general consensus about this series, and say it gets pushed to three games. 

Phoenix has a lot to prove after taking multiple big swings this offseason. They have a breadth of postseason experience on their roster, and specifically, championship experience. They also have an extra edge to play with as this very much feels like a precursor to a real Taurasi retirement announcement. At least pushing this series to the brink should and would feel good for a Phoenix team that has struggled to find flow and chemistry this season. If they want to lead with their passion first, basketball second this series, I feel they can manage to steal a game in this round. Winning the series is another beast entirely, and it will fall on their depth to try and contend with Minnesota’s – not an easy feat for them, nor for any team battle with the Lynx this postseason.

Stats as of 9/20. Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of WNBA.com.