Minnesota Lynx vs. Connecticut Sun » Winsidr

The No. 2 Minnesota Lynx and No. 3 Connecticut Sun will start the best-of-five series in Minneapolis, and the winner will advance to the WNBA Finals. The Sun won two out of three regular season meetings against the Lynx earlier this season.

May 23: Sun win 83-82 (OT) at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, CT

July 4: Sun win 78-73 at Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

September 17: Lynx win 78-76 at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, CT

Before the teams face off, we turn to our Winsidr reporters Jamauri Bowles and Mitchell Hansen to preview the series.

Series Schedule:

Game One: Target Center – 8:30 p.m. ET on September 29 (ESPN)
Game Two: Target Center – TBD on October 1 (TBD)
Game Three: Mohegan Sun Arena – 7:30 p.m. ET on October 4 (ESPN2)
Game Four (if necessary): Mohegan Sun Arena – TBD on October 6 (TBD)
Game Five (if necessary): Target Center – TBD on October 8 (ESPN2)

Matchups We Can’t Wait to Watch

Jamauri Bowles: After watching Napheesa Collier against the Phoenix Mercury, I’m interested in how Connecticut will play her defensively. Against Phoenix, Collier scored 38 points in Game One, and 42 points in Game Two, (tied for the most points in playoff history). I expect Collier will attack the basket with more aggression than Aliyah Boston did, and Collier is additionally a willing perimeter shooter who can be a threat from out there. When she is near the rim, will Connecticut throw a fair amount of double teams at her to get the ball out of her hands? Regarding the defensive matchups, I’m not only thinking about Alyssa Thomas and Brionna Jones, but also Olivia Nelson-Ododa, who played valuable defense in Game Two against the Indiana Fever.

Collier either shot as many or more free throws as the entire Mercury team in each of the two games, going 25-of-28 from the free throw line in the series. Against Indiana, Connecticut allowed 21 total free throw attempts. Connecticut is a more stout defensive team than Phoenix, and needs to successfully defend Collier without fouling.

Mitchell Hansen: The battle in the paint

Both Minnesota and Connecticut feature plenty of firepower, which should mean there are multiple matchups that will be entertaining to watch. However, when it comes to the matchup I am most looking forward to, I have to go with the battle in the paint between Minnesota’s Napheesa Collier and Alanna Smith and Connecticut’s Alyssa Thomas and Brionna Jones.. 

Both groups will be tasked with trying to keep the other in check, which will be no easy feat given the level of play from all four of those players listed above. I am most excited to watch the Collier and Thomas matchup since Collier is playing out of this world this postseason and Thomas is a triple-double threat on a nightly basis. 

X-Factors

JB: Connecticut’s three-point shooting will be important to watch. Without the late-game heroics of DeWanna Bonner and Marina Mabrey from the three-point line in Game Two, the Sun could’ve played a Game Three in Indianapolis. Mabrey’s dagger three-pointer that ultimately iced the game (and the series) showed why Connecticut acquired her: for more stability and reliable perimeter shooting. I don’t think the Sun’s three-point shooting was an overall significant factor in their series, especially with how the Fever (really Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell) struggled from the three-point line (24.1 percent). The Sun went 14-of-37 from three-point range in the series.

Against Minnesota, Connecticut needs great shooting from Mabrey, Bonner and Tyasha Harris. Minnesota is the best three-point shooting team in the league: they shot 38.0 percent in the regular season, while Connecticut was at 32.7 percent. The Sun did, however, shoot at 34.6 percent after trading for Mabrey. Also, the Sun shot 39.1 percent from three-point range in the regular season against the Lynx across the three meetings. Connecticut’s worst three-point shooting game occurred in the only meeting that took place after the Mabrey trade.

MH: Defense, defense and more defense

As talented as both teams are offensively, they might be even more talented on the other end of the floor in locking down the opposition. In the regular season, Connecticut ended as the top defensive team in the WNBA with a defensive rating of 94.1, though Minnesota was right on its heels with a defensive rating of 94.8 to rank second. In the first round, the Sun have continued its strong play defensively, ranking second among playoff teams in defensive rating (94.3). On the other end, Minnesota has ranked fifth among postseason squads (113.7).

Keep an eye on which team is able to take the other out of the game early and often, in part due to the stellar defense that resides on both squads. Whichever team is able to hold the other in check offensively should be able to take control of this series. 

Bold Predictions

JB: The series will feature multiple triple-doubles.

I think that there will be at least one triple-double from each team. For the Sun, I will go with the league’s triple-double GOAT in Alyssa Thomas. For the Lynx, I predict that Courtney Williams will record a triple-double. In fact, Williams recorded a triple-double for the Chicago Sky in an overtime victory last season against the Sun.

JB: Minnesota will win the series in four games.

Things can change in a year! The Lynx are not the same team that pushed the Sun to three games in the first round last year as the sixth seed. The Lynx are a team that improved and worked to finish with a better record than the Sun. It’s tempting to believe that the series will go to a decisive Game Five, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it did. However, I think the Sun will suffer yet another heartbreaking end-of-season loss on their home floor.

MH: Each team will win a game on the road

These two teams have been so evenly matched during the regular season that there is no reason to believe we won’t see that once again here in the semifinals. Each of the games in this series should come down to the wire and it wouldn’t be surprising to see each game decided by less than five points. For that reason, we will see each team steal a game on the road, setting the stage for a winner-take-all Game 5 back in Minnesota. 

MH: Minnesota advances to the WNBA Finals in five games.

I’m going against what Jamauri says above, because it’s not fun picking the same outcome. I’m going with the series going a full five games. In the end, however, the Lynx will do what it takes to come out on top in this series and home court advantage will likely play a big factor in Minnesota’s quest for an appearance in the WNBA Finals. Minneapolis will be rocking in Game 5 between the Lynx and Sun, and Minnesota will advance to the WNBA Finals for the first time since 2017. 

Stats as of 9/28. Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of WNBA.com.