Mets’ keys to potential NLCS comeback

LOS ANGELES — Since falling behind 3-1 in this best-of-seven National League Championship Series against the Dodgers on Thursday night, Mets players have spoken not only about the difficulty of the challenge in front of them, but also their unique qualifications to overcome it.

“We have history with it, so this isn’t new,” outfielder Brandon Nimmo said. “We can do it. This team is very capable.”

Reliever Ryne Stanek echoed that sentiment.

“We haven’t done anything the easy way yet this year,” said Stanek. “It’s an opportunity to do something special. Why stop now?”

But achieving something that only seven teams in AL/NL history have before — winning Games 6 and 7 on the road after trailing 3-1 a best-of-seven series — will require more than mere optimism. The Mets must continue being disruptors on the field, which won’t be easy against the No. 1 overall seed in this postseason.

To make it happen, they’ll need a few key things to occur:

1. Sean Manaea must pitch deep into Game 6
The Mets will have the right man on the mound for this assignment on Sunday. During the regular season, Manaea recorded at least one out in the seventh inning 12 times, a team-high mark. He’s one of eight pitchers to finish the seventh in a game this month.

Even in an elimination game, manager Carlos Mendoza may need to stick with Manaea if he struggles a bit early. The bullpen is taxed to such an extent that asking Manaea for five or more innings seems crucial.

If he can throw six or seven, it should set the Mets up far better for a potential Game 7 on Monday, which is of course important. While the Dodgers only need to win one more game, the Mets must win two. Mendoza will manage as aggressively as necessary to win Game 6, despite knowing there’s a longer-term cost attached to every lever he pulls.

“We’ll watch him closely, and we’ll be ready and adjust if we need to,” Mendoza said. “Pretty comfortable giving him the ball tomorrow, and we’ll go from there.”

2. A reliever other than Stanek and Edwin Díaz needs to step up
Counting their hero turns in Game 5, Stanek and Díaz have combined to produce a 1.28 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in the NLCS. The rest of the Mets’ bullpen is at a combined 8.52 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP.

If that trend continues, the Mets probably won’t advance, plain and simple. Even if Manaea pitches deep into Game 6, the Mets are going to need someone other than Stanek and Díaz to pitch at some point. It’s simply unrealistic to think that those two can continue to shoulder such an outsized load after combining for 13 outs in Game 5.

“It’s very taxing,” Phil Maton said. “You’re starting to fatigue this time of year.”

Maton is the obvious candidate to step up, given his role as the Mets’ top setup man for much of the second half. But Maton has allowed a run in four of his past six outings (dating back to the regular season) and has four walks over his past three appearances. Much like Game 4 starter Jose Quintana, the soft-tossing Maton isn’t a great matchup against a disciplined Dodgers team. But he’s arguably the best option the Mets have right now.

“It’s honestly whatever it takes,” Maton said. “We’re really close to our goal right now, and we’ve got to take care of business in Game 6.”

Others — such as Tylor Megill, Reed Garrett or even Kodai Senga — could also give the Mets key innings when it matters. In Game 7, David Peterson can probably help. But if the Mets don’t find the right formula to help Manaea in Game 6, they’ll quickly find themselves in trouble.

3. The offense must be more consistent
The Mets are averaging 4.2 runs per game in the NLCS, which isn’t terrible in a small sample. It’s also an easy way to lie with statistics.

In two of the five games, the Mets were shut out. In two others, they scored seven and 12 runs, respectively. Their Game 5 performance was an offensive masterpiece: the Mets plated a run in five of their eight offensive innings, received an early homer from Pete Alonso, had the luxury of nine hits and seven RBIs from the bottom five batters in their lineup, and became the first club in 22 years to avoid striking out in a postseason game.

“I’m totally biased here — I think we’ve done a good job except for the first day,” Nimmo said. “The first day it was kind of rusty, and you could tell. Every day after that, I’ve been pretty happy with it.”

Quite clearly, the Mets have the skill to keep this offensive run going. They blew up the Dodgers’ bullpen game with 11 hits in Game 2 and will face many of the same pitchers Sunday in Game 6. All the Mets need to do is avoid another offensive clunker and they’ll have a chance.