Manchester City Win Despite Rare xG Deficiency

Stat, Viz, Quiz is the Opta Analyst football newsletter. This week’s edition looks at penalty saves, Manchester City, and shots fired.

It was an interesting weekend in the Premier League. Games either had very little happening, or arguably too much happening.

Liverpool head into the international break top of the table after beating Crystal Palace, Arsenal came from behind to defeat Southampton, Brentford took ages by their own recent standards to take the lead (76 whole seconds) in their eight-goal thriller with Wolves, while Tottenham lost 3-2 at Brighton despite having a two-goal lead at half-time.

One of the more curious games happened at the Etihad Stadium, though. Manchester City beat Fulham on Saturday, but quite astonishingly, lost the expected goals battle. Of course, the Premier League doesn’t hand out points for xG, but it was still quite a thing to happen. In this week’s SVQ, we investigate the rare phenomenon further.

We also have another memory-stretching quiz for you, as well as the latest Ask Opta question from one of our subscribers all about shots.

Let’s kick-off this week’s newsletter by looking at goalkeepers who save penalties, and yes, we mean plural.

If you haven’t done so already, you can subscribe below for free to receive SVQ every Tuesday.

STAT – Proficient Penalty Preventers

We all get excited when our team wins a penalty. As data aficionados such as yourselves will no doubt be aware, a penalty brings with it an xG of almost 0.8.

With that near 80% chance of scoring a goal, we all get in position to celebrate, fists clenched, scarf ready to be waved, and shirt untucked in preparation to go over the head.

And then the goalkeeper saves it, and we’re not sure where we go from there. Tucking the shirt back in and having a little cry seems the most reasonable response.

If it’s your goalkeeper who has kept the spot-kick out, though, it’s celebration time, and fans of Fiorentina and Girona experienced it not once, but twice at the weekend.

Former Premier League shot-stoppers David de Gea and Paulo Gazzaniga stopped two penalties apiece on Sunday. De Gea prevented Milan’s Theo Hernández and Tammy Abraham from finding the net, while Gazzaniga saved from Athletic Club’s Alex Berenguer and Ander Herrera.

The former Southampton and Tottenham goalkeeper actually made three saves, but his stop from Iñaki Williams’ was retaken after he moved off the line too early. Herrera took the penalty instead, but it too was kept out by Gazzaniga as Girona beat Athletic Club 2-1.

Gazzaniga has had a good few days facing penalties, having also saved one from Ayase Ueda in the UEFA Champions League home defeat to Feyenoord. The Argentine has now saved five of the 16 penalties he has faced in all competitions for Girona (31.3%), having saved one of five while he was at Spurs (20%).

De Gea’s exploits in Fiorentina’s 2-1 win against Milan were perhaps a bit more surprising. The Spaniard only saved seven of the 50 penalties (not including shootouts) he faced when he was between the sticks for Manchester United (14%), though he did prevent four of 13 at Atlético Madrid (30.8%), and now has a 50% record with La Viola (two of four saved).

Saving two penalties in one game, unsurprisingly, isn’t very common. For example, it has happened just nine times in 32 years of the Premier League, and it’s been almost five years since the last time it occurred in England’s top flight.

The first goalkeeper to pull off the feat in the competition was Mark Bosnich, who saved from both Nick Barmby and Darren Anderton in Aston Villa’s 1-1 draw at Tottenham in March 1994.

Tim Krul was the last goalkeeper to do so, saving from Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial in October 2019. It ultimately didn’t matter as Manchester United still beat Norwich City 3-1 at Carrow Road, but it was impressive from the Dutchman nonetheless.

A special mention must go to Heurelho Gomes, who is the only goalkeeper to have saved two penalties in one game in the Premier League TWICE. Not only that, he did so for two different teams, for Tottenham against Sunderland in April 2010 and for Watford against West Bromwich Albion in April 2016.

Will it happen again any time soon? We’re sure it will, but really, who wants to concede two penalties in a game to find out?

VIZ – Man City Overcome xG Deficiency Against *checks notes* Fulham

When it comes to Manchester City, there’s certain things you feel you can hang your hat on.

They will pass the ball a lot, create plenty of chances, and Erling Haaland will score unless he gets either marked out of the game, or arguably more likely, abducted by aliens.

You can also usually take it as a given that they will win the xG battle against their opponents, especially when they’re at home and even more especially when they’re not playing against one of their top-six rivals.

However, despite their ultimate 3-2 success over Fulham on Saturday, City were left to thank their lucky stars that they overperformed their xG while their opponents underperformed theirs.

Marco Silva’s men only had 11 shots to the hosts’ 20, but the quality of their chances were higher, meaning they ended the game with an xG of 2.60 to Man City’s 1.57.

A ‘big chance’ is defined by Opta as “a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter.” Fulham had five big chances to City’s one on Saturday.

Almost five years to the day after City had lost 2-0 to Wolves at home largely thanks to the performances of Raúl Jiménez and Adama Traoré, it was the same pair who terrorised the champions again. Jiménez (five) and Traoré (three) took eight of Fulham’s 11 shots between them, but neither was able to find the net. Traoré alone ended the game with a personal xG of 1.29 but was unable to get the ball past Ederson.

As this week’s viz shows, City are very rarely outperformed when it comes to xG on home soil. Their win on Saturday made it 50 Premier League games at the Etihad without defeat, and this was only the sixth time in that run where they have been beaten on xG.

It also happened against Leicester City (0.3), Chelsea (0.1), Brighton (0.1), Crystal Palace (0.2) and FC Copenhagen (0.5). Notably though, Fulham recorded just over 1.0 xG more than City, more than twice as much as any other team have done so in that time.

Of course, it didn’t do the Cottagers much good. Thanks to superb strikes from Mateo Kovacic (two) and Jérémy Doku, City earned the three points, and no-one will remember this if they win a fifth consecutive Premier League title at the end of the season.

It was still an impressive feat, though, and Fulham even managed to stop Haaland from scoring. Surely, they can be given some moral points; that’s a thing, right?

QUIZ – Fast Goals, No Goals, and Brennan Johnson’s Goals

After another exciting (mostly) weekend of Premier League action, we’ve found five questions related to Opta facts to challenge your brain muscles. Answers at the bottom of the page.

1. Both teams scored inside the opening four minutes of Brentford’s 5-3 win over Wolves, the first time that has happened in a Premier League game since which two ‘big six’ teams faced off in October 2020?

2. Leicester loanee Facundo Buonanotte (19 years, 287 days) became the second-youngest South American player to reach 10 goal involvements in the Premier League with his winner against Bournemouth. Which currently active South American player in the Premier League is the youngest?

3. Everton’s 0-0 draw with Newcastle means they have now had 106 goalless draws in Premier League history, the second most in the competition. It is just one fewer than which team who have played in the most Premier League goalless draws?

4. Manchester United have won just eight points from their opening seven Premier League games; their fewest at this stage of a league campaign since 1989-90 (7). Where did they finish that season?

5. Tottenham’s Brennan Johnson has scored in each of his last six appearances in all competitions, the first Spurs’ player to do so since who between December 2018 and January 2019?

Ask Opta

This week’s question comes from James Evans, who asks: “Which team has had the most shots in the Premier League this season? Also, who has faced the fewest?”

Do you have a stats-based football question you want to Ask Opta? If so, send it to editors@theanalyst.com and we’ll do our best to provide you with the answer in a future edition of SVQ.

Answer:

It may not be the most shocking reveal we’ve had in this section, but Manchester City have attempted the most shots after seven games of the 2024-25 Premier League season. Pep Guardiola’s men have had 135 shots at goal (including blocked shots), ahead of Tottenham in second with 123.

However, it could be a surprise to many to learn that Bournemouth are third in the list, having attempted 117 shots, ahead of Arsenal (114) and West Ham (110).

It’s Spurs who have the highest xG, though, with 15.03. That’s ahead of Chelsea (14.66), Liverpool (14.03), Man City (13.94) and Arsenal (13.09).

In terms of who have faced the fewest, the top two are again Man City and Spurs. City have only faced 55 shots, while Spurs have faced 61. It does therefore feel a bit strange that they conceded five goals between them at the weekend, but that’s football for you.

Liverpool have faced the third fewest with 64, while Brighton (69) and Aston Villa (73) have faced the fourth and fifth fewest respectively.

Arne Slot’s side have the lowest xG against with 5.17, ahead of Villa (6.93), Arsenal (7.37), City and Nottingham Forest (both 7.84).

Click below to go straight to our Premier League stats hub to find the answers to these questions and more.

What Are We Up to at Opta Analyst?

Here’s some of our latest data-driven offerings:

Quiz Answers

1. Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United

2. Alejandro Garnacho (19y 182d)

3. Aston Villa

4. 13th

5. Harry Kane

Before You Go…

Enjoying Stat, Viz, Quiz? Think it needs improvement? Send us your feedback to editorial@theanalyst.com.