Jannik Sinner dominated this critical area against Novak Djokovic in Shanghai… | ATP Tour

Brain Game

Sinner dominated this critical area against Djokovic in Shanghai…

Brain Game analyses the Shanghai ATP Masters 1000 final

October 13, 2024

The start of the point was not the problem for Novak Djokovic. It was the end.

Jannik Sinner defeated Djokovic 7-6(4), 6-3 in the final of the Rolex Shanghai Masters on Sunday by winning just five more points (65-60) overall than the Serbian. In a match that showcased parity all over the stats sheet, the Italian dominated one critical area — the ability to finish points off with winners.

Winners: Sinner
– Aces = 9
– Forehand = 6
– Backhand = 4
– Volleys = 4
– Total = 23

Winners: Djokovic
– Aces = 4
– Forehand = 4
– Backhand = 1
– Volleys = 3
– Total = 12

Your 2024 Men’s Singles Champion in Shanghai 🏆@janniksin | @SH_RolexMasters | #RolexShanghaiMasters pic.twitter.com/hASdvUH1GS

— ATP Tour (@atptour) October 13, 2024

Sinner clubbed 23 winners to Djokovic’s 12. There was no other match stat where such a gap between the two players existed. Both committed 23 unforced errors for the match. Both put 82 per cent of their backhands in play. Djokovic actually put slightly more forehands in the court (86% to 84%) and hit them harder (81 mph to 79 mph) on average throughout the final.

But when it came time to finish off the good work building the point, it was Sinner who proved to be twice as good as Djokovic. When isolating baseline points, Sinner collected 10 winners to just five for Djokovic. The Serbian won the battle of longer rallies of nine shots or longer by eight points to six. It proved inconsequential to the final outcome in Shanghai. When Sinner needed to end the point, his movement, shot selection and court position proved superior to the former No. 1 in the PIF ATP Rankings.

One micro-battle that highlighted the strategic advantage Sinner enjoyed in the match can be seen with the first shot hit after the serve, commonly known as Serve +1.

Total Serve +1 Forehands
– Sinner = 62% (28/45)
– Djokovic = 42% (15/36)

Sinner Serve +1 Groundstrokes Won
– Forehand = 61% (17/28)
– Backhand = 53% (9/17)

Djokovic Serve +1 Groundstrokes Won
– Forehand = 53% (8/15)
– Backhand = 52% (11/21)

Sinner dominated with Serve +1 forehands in this match, hitting this shot 62 per cent of the time. Djokovic struggled mightily to find his Serve +1 forehand, only hitting it 42 per cent of the time. Sinner won 61 per cent of his Serve +1 forehand points, while Djokovic was only at 53 per cent. This had a negative flow-on effect for the rest of the point for the Serbian. Too many Serve +1 backhands equals too much baseline parity in Djokovic’s service games. That makes it increasingly more challenging for the Serbian to manufacture winners at the end of the point.

Djokovic also turned his attention to the front of the court to apply pressure to Sinner, but this turned out to be one of the rare matches in which Djokovic was not able to build a winning margin at the net. He only won 45% (5/11) points coming forward, while Sinner collected a tidy five of six points won.

It is almost 12 months since Djokovic won his last ATP Tour title at the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin last November. At 37 years of age, the recent Paris Olympics gold medalist Djokovic is fast approaching the twilight of his career. This match identifies where his younger opponents will forge an advantage against him.

It’s not in building the point. It’s in finishing it.