How the Titans pulled off improbable 2023 win vs. Dolphins

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Will Levis‘ wide eyes and Incredible Hulk-like flex said it all.

The Tennessee Titans had done something rare as Derrick Henry‘s 3-yard touchdown run put them ahead for good and sealed a come-from-behind win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 14 of the 2023 season.

“Anytime you get a win like that, the response … that’s appropriate,” Levis said.

It was the second-most statistically improbable comeback since 2014, when Next Gen Stats began tracking the stat. The Titans’ win probability dipped as low as 0.4% after they fell behind 27-13 late in the fourth quarter, according to Next Gen Stats. The Titans, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, were the first team to win in regulation after trailing by 14 or more points with fewer than three minutes remaining since the Raiders trailed the Steelers 28-14 and won 31-28 in 1976.

It was Levis’ first career comeback victory and the first time a rookie threw for 300 or more yards on “Monday Night Football.” His 327 passing yards in that game remain a career high. It seemed as if the Titans had found their franchise quarterback after he won a shootout against Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa — whose 4,624 passing yards led the NFL last season.

The loss was part of the reason the Dolphins fell short of the AFC East crown. They came into that game with a 9-3 record, but went 2-2 (including their loss to the Titans) over the next four weeks leading up their Week 18 showdown with the Buffalo Bills with the division on the line (a game Miami also lost). Instead of hosting a playoff game, the Dolphins would have to face the eventual Super Bowl-champion Kansas City Chiefs on the road in the wild-card round.

Like last season, a win over the Dolphins on “Monday Night Football” is something the Titans (0-3) desperately need.

“Anytime you play on Monday night, regardless of where it is, that whole world’s watching, it gives a little bit of extra excitement,” Levis said. “So we got that, and that was a good one for us. We’re just hoping to go get another one down there, and obviously at this point of our season where we really need one.”

Things are a lot different leading into the rematch at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on Monday (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Levin is off to a shaky start, prompting him to say, “I’m going to do everything I can to rewire my brain.”

Titans coach Brian Callahan has replaced Mike Vrabel and Henry is with Baltimore. And for the Dolphins (1-2), newly acquired quarterback Tyler Huntley will be under center instead of Tagovailoa, whose future is in question after he suffered a concussion in a Week 2 loss to the Bills.

“We’ve got to exorcise those demons to an extent, but every year is different,” Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver said. “This is an entirely new team. There is a bunch of us that weren’t a part of it at all, but the guys that were here, we know that we want to go make it right this week.

“They have a new team, new staff, new coordinators, new players — same thing here, but those two logos, we know what this means.”

Here is a look at the last time these two teams met:

6:53, second quarter (Dolphins 7, Titans 7): Bradley Chubb‘s unsportsmanlike conduct penalty extends drive (21.6% win probability for Titans, according to ESPN Research)

Levis led the Titans on their first scoring drive, covering 86 yards on 14 plays over 7:13. Facing a third-and-10, Levis eluded Chubb’s sack attempt and scrambled 5 yards before lowering his shoulder to take on cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

Levis: That was just a wave when we got off from that drive. I just felt good energy, good juice.

Running back Tyjae Spears: Dropping a shoulder on him was probably the best thing for Will because it probably helped him with confidence and everything else that he’s dealing with.

Safety Amani Hooker: A lot of guys were hyped. I think that just brought juice to the team because it’s like the quarterback’s doing that, it put a fire in everyone.

Tight end Chig Okonkwo: When he did that, everybody was like, ‘Oh s—, he’s got that s— to him.’ He just seen Jalen Ramsey and tried to run him over. That’s when everybody was like, ‘Oh s—! Will got that dog in him!’

After the play, a frustrated Chubb ripped his helmet off and slammed it on the field. The officials flagged him for unsportsmanlike conduct, giving the Titans a new set of downs. Henry scored on a 3-yard run.

Chubb after the game: I let my problems be bigger than the team’s problems and hurt the team in a way that I don’t want to do that. Looking back on it now, just two more steps and I would’ve been perfectly fine, so it’s just frustrating when I let my emotions get the best of me.

Halftime (Titans 10, Dolphins 7): Nick Folk field goal gives Titans their first lead (27.9% win probability)

Levis found DeAndre Hopkins for a 24-yard completion with 23 seconds left in the first half. He managed to get the throw off despite being hit by Chubb as he threw the ball. The two connected a few plays later with Hopkins making a diving catch for a 45-yard gain with 18 seconds left in the half. Folk hit a 28-yard field goal to give Tennessee the lead. The six-play, 69-yard drive took only 28 seconds thanks to the Levis-Hopkins connection.

Hopkins: I knew he was going to me regardless. I made plays for him in practice. I was always in his ear like, “Look, man, just trust me. I’m not going to let the ball get intercepted.” That’s what he did. I knew he was going in, no matter what.

5:34, fourth quarter (Dolphins 20, Titans 13): Titans muff punt, Raheem Mostert scores for Dolphins (2.9% win probability)

The Titans’ defense forced Miami to punt with 6:07 left in the fourth quarter after exchanging field goals. Returner Eric Garror fumbled at the Tennessee 7-yard line and it was recovered by the Dolphins. Mostert’s 3-yard touchdown run gave Miami the lead.

4:34, fourth quarter (Dolphins 27, Titans 13): Titans botch pitch, Mostert scores again (0.7% win probability)

After the ensuing kickoff, Levis’ pitch to Henry on a toss play hit the ground and Chubb recovered the ball at Tennessee’s 14-yard line. Mostert’s 5-yard touchdown run seemingly put the game away.

Titans RBs (now TEs) coach James Otten: I knew the game wasn’t over until it was over. I had been associated with the 28-3 Super Bowl [when the New England Patriots overcame the biggest deficit in Super Bowl history to beat the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI] on the losing side of it. You never know what’s going to happen no matter how much time is on the clock. You just gotta keep playing, stay confident, trust the game plan.

Okonkwo: I think we were so fed up with all this stuff that was going on in the past few weeks and how much we would lose at the last second. It was just a f—ing mindset. Whatever, bro. Let’s just go out here and ball. It’s prime time. F— it, let’s go.

2:40, fourth quarter (Dolphins 27, Titans 21): Titans take a risk, make it a one-score game (14.3% win probability)

Tennessee started the next drive with 4:34 left and marched 75 yards on nine plays. A 23-yard drop shot to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine on a corner route got the ball to Miami’s 3-yard line with 2:53 left in the game.

Westbrook-Ikhine: It was some sort of deeper out-breaker. I knew if we had the right look I’d be the first in the progression. I think it was kind of like [a two-minute drill], and we had to move around. I felt a little tired but knew I had to find a way, so I ran the route and the ball was right where it needed to be. I was just mad I didn’t score!

Levis scrambled to his right on the next play before hitting Hopkins with a no-look pass for the touchdown.

Levis: It was a play I had to make getting out of the pocket and making something happen off schedule. It’s a credit to him to know where he’s at in space and settle in that coverage, and that’s what makes him great as a player.

Hopkins: I knew I had to uncover for him. We needed to score a touchdown. I definitely wasn’t coming out the end zone, whatever I did. I wanted to be in the end zone. Usually, the defenders flow with the traffic, so I knew, just from my time playing football, give them a quick move, make them think I’m flowing with it, but go against it.

The Titans came out for a 2-point conversion, and Westbrook-Ikhine hauled in a wide-open pass in the end zone.

Right guard Peter Skoronski: There was never really a moment where anyone really blinked or hung their head or anything. Guys just kind of stuck with the process and went down and we executed.

Spears: We just stayed in the fight. It ain’t over with until the clock hit zeroes. Two adverse things happened back-to-back, so the thing is just always believe, keep that mindset of believing and never lose that.

2:18 left, fourth quarter (Dolphins 27, Titans 21): Miami goes three-and-out (19.9% win probability)

Garror fielded Jake Bailey‘s punt at the Titans’ 22-yard line with 2:18 left and returned it 14 yards after the Dolphins went three-and-out and ran only 25 seconds off the clock.

Linebacker Harold Landry III: I feel like there has never really been a panic as a team when we face adversity no matter what the score is. I feel like we always got a chance in the fourth quarter to pull it out, and that’s literally just been the mindset and how it’s been here.

Hooker: We fed off the offense scoring, and we didn’t want to let them down after they did their job. It was our time to go out there and do our job.

Tagovailoa after the game: It’s the NFL. Anything can happen. We’ve got to do a better job finishing the game with the time that we had while we had the ball, not allowing their opposing team’s offense to get that opportunity to potentially go down and score.

1:49 left, fourth quarter (Titans 28, Dolphins 27): Titans take lead on Henry run (58.9% win probability)

Tennessee took over on its own 36-yard line with 2:14 left in the game. Levis hit Hopkins on a deep crossing route for a 36-yard gain, then found Okonkwo on a screen on the next play that went 16 yards to the Dolphins’ 12-yard line.

Skoronski: Personally. I don’t even remember thinking about the clock or anything, or even the score. It was sort of like, ‘Oh, we’re back in it.’ We just did our thing, and that was it.

Three plays and a delay of game penalty later, Henry punched it in from the 3-yard line and Folk’s extra point gave the Titans the lead with 1:49 left. It took 28 seconds for the Titans to drive 64 yards on four plays.

Okonkwo: I remember being in my head and being like, “Holy s—, we just won the game.” That’s how it was. It was being like, “Oh, we have a chance.” And then we actually scored. I was like, “Damn, we just won.”

26 seconds, fourth quarter (Titans 28, Dolphins 27): Landry’s sack seals the deal (99.9% win probability)

Landry ended the Dolphins’ chances when he sacked Tagovailoa with 26 seconds left.

Landry: I was ready for that game to end and just happy I got him down to close it out.

20 seconds, fourth quarter (Titans 28, Dolphins 27): Levis kneels (100% win probability)

With Levis’ kneel, the Titans snapped a nine-game road losing streak (fifth longest in team history) and scored at least 20 points in a road game for the first time since their 27-17 win at Green Bay in Week 11 of the 2022 season.

Spears: We’ve got a franchise quarterback that can take the lead in pivotal moments of the game.

Otten: There’s something to seeing the fruits of your labor come true. It really did and it was a stepping off point for [Levis] the rest of the season. He walked a little bit higher and his chest poked out a bit better. It was not only a huge confidence builder for him, it was for the whole offense.

Miami Dolphins reporter Marcel Louis-Jacques contributed to this report.