How struggling MLB hitters can rebound in 2024

Even the very best hitters go through cold streaks. While those can often go unnoticed, it’s far different when cold spells come at the beginning of the season. Poor starts — with no recent string of success to point to — can raise alarm bells for any hitter, especially those with long track records of production.

In 2024, several talented hitters have started the season on the wrong foot. Here’s how seven of them — including two league MVPs — can fix what’s ailed them so far this year.

All stats are entering play Saturday.

Aaron Judge, Yankees
Fix: Square the ball up
Name the Statcast hitting metric, and Judge probably ranked in the 100th percentile in it in 2023: expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and more. That’s not the case this year, as Judge has struggled to a .178 average, a .674 OPS and just four home runs this season. His barrel rate has dropped to the 82nd percentile — above average, to be sure, but not typical territory for a hitter of Judge’s caliber. More concerning is a .214 expected batting average that ranks in the 18th percentile (Judge’s 2023 xBA was .289, in the 92nd percentile.)

Whether it’s just a slump or whether Judge is still slowed by an abdominal injury that limited him in Spring Training is unclear, but Judge has looked far from himself so far. His .321 xwOBA is only slightly above average, and his strikeout rate is its highest since 2019. When he can consistently make more solid contact — using the unique power he has — things should turn quickly for the 2022 American League MVP Award winner.

Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals
Fix: Rediscover hard contact
Most of Goldschmidt’s Statcast percentile rankings have dipped significantly from 2023, when he hit .260 with 31 doubles, 25 homers and an .810 OPS. The 2022 National League MVP has a .581 OPS, is running a career-high 28.7% strikeout rate and has particularly struggled when it comes to hard contact, sitting in the 17th percentile in barrel rate at just 3.2% (Goldschmidt hasn’t run a barrel rate under 10% since 2016).

A .318 batting average and .900 OPS in his past six games could indicate that Goldschmidt is starting to figure things out. For a player with his lengthy track record of production, that wouldn’t be surprising. But for now, Goldy’s struggles have been significantly hampering a Cardinals offense that ranks just 26th in MLB with a .649 OPS.

Randy Arozarena, Rays
Fix: Cut down swings and misses
Arozarena hasn’t been able to get anything going so far in 2024, owning a .153/.231/.255 slash line with just three home runs. In terms of batter run value, he’s been in the bottom five of MLB hitters. The Rays outfielder is still hitting the ball hard overall, sitting in the 73rd percentile in average exit velocity, but his barrel rate has gone down significantly since 2023.

Most notably, though, Arozarena’s 34.2% whiff rate is his worst since 2020, as is his 28.7% strikeout clip. His walk rate has also gone back down after a career-high mark last season. Arozarena simply hasn’t been doing damage on pitches in the strike zone, and his penchant for swinging and missing so far in 2024 has been worrisome for Tampa Bay.

Bo Bichette, Blue Jays
Fix: Find the sweet spot
After leading the American League in hits in 2021 and 2022 and batting .306 last season, Bichette has struggled considerably to begin 2024. The shortstop, who has never posted an OPS lower than .800 in his career, is running a .593 OPS through his first 25 games. While Bichette is walking more and chasing less, his expected statistics have taken a step back, including an xBA of just .212 — lower than his actual .216 average.

So what’s behind Bichette’s struggles? For one, his 19.5% sweet-spot rate is fifth lowest in all of MLB. His 88.1 mph average exit velocity and 37.8% hard-hit rate are career lows, and he owns only two barrels all year (a 2.4% clip ranking in the 12th percentile). A career .296 hitter, Bichette likely won’t struggle like this all season, but this April has been the second-worst month of his career by OPS behind only April 2022.

Corbin Carroll, D-backs
Fix: Make more solid contact
At 5-foot-10 and 165 pounds, Carroll will never hit the ball with the power of a player like Judge or Giancarlo Stanton. But his above-average exit velocity and hard-hit rate from 2023 have fallen significantly this season, giving Carroll a .202 average, a .253 slugging percentage and just one homer so far in 2024.

Carroll’s 83.8 mph average exit velocity is in the third percentile in MLB, and only 24.7% of his 81 batted balls have been hard hit. It’s hard to do much damage at the plate — or get on base enough to steal 57 bases again — when you’re not squaring the ball up. That should come in time for a talented hitter like Carroll, but it’s been a big problem in the season’s first month.

Alex Bregman, Astros
Fix: Tap into more power
Bregman hasn’t been the worst hitter in the Astros’ lineup this year, but he’s still performed at a substandard level: a .216 average, .566 OPS and not a single home run. His lack of production has been one of Houston’s key issues amid a 7-19 start that has the Astros at the bottom of the AL West.

Plate discipline has been an issue for Bregman: He’s walking less while simultaneously chasing more than in 2023. But perhaps most importantly, the lack of homers is evidence of Bregman’s currently missing power. He’s slugging just .273, and it’s not really bad luck: His expected slugging percentage is just .308. Bregman’s average exit velocity is a career low, and his significantly lower barrel rate is a real concern.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
Fix: Adjust to breaking and offspeed stuff
After a frustrating 2023 when Guerrero significantly underperformed his expected statistics, the Blue Jays first baseman is off to a slow start. Vladdy is hitting just .206 with a .324 slugging percentage and three home runs. Breaking down the pitch types he’s faced in 2024 can help explain his struggles.

Guerrero is faring just fine against fastballs in 2024, with a .281 average and .404 SLG in 70 plate appearances. But he’s 0-for-16 in plate appearances ending in offspeed stuff and just 5-for-29 (.172) against breaking pitches. Of the three pitch types, Guerrero actually fared best against offspeed pitches last season with a .350 wOBA. That number has dipped to .080 early in 2024, and it’s part of the reason for Guerrero’s struggles — despite his mostly strong underlying metrics.