How many points Liverpool need to avoid Champions League play-offs – Liverpool FC

With Liverpool off to a great start in the new-look Champions League, they have taken an important three points in an effort to avoid the knockout round play-off.

Beating AC Milan 3-1 in this Swiss-style league phase of the European Cup could be vital come the end of January, when this part of the competition concludes.

By full time on January 29, when Liverpool play PSV Eindhoven, the Reds will have played eight times and competed for 24 points.

With three of those points already secured, we took a look at how many it would take to finish in the top eight of the 36-team league.

Why should Liverpool aim for the top 8?

It is quite unlikely Liverpool will actually exit the competition at the first hurdle, with 24 of the 36 teams progressing from the league phase.

However, it is important for the Reds to finish in the top eight as it would see them avoid an extra play-off round that would take place just before a league match against Man City.

The knockout round play-offs are scheduled to be played on February 11/12 and 18/19, 2025.

Therefore, if Liverpool were to finish from ninth to 24th place, they would face the following run in February:

UCL play-off first leg | Wolves (H) | UCL play-off second leg | Man City (A)

How can Liverpool finish in the top 8?

15 pts is the most likely outcome for both the 8th and 9th place.

9 pts is the most likely outcome for both the 24th and 25th place.

This means that goal difference may play a crucial role in deciding who finishes in or out of Top 8, as well as in or out of Top 24. pic.twitter.com/T4XxT5gy4Y

— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) September 14, 2024

With this being the first edition of the new format, we are heading into unknown territory. Opta, though, have predicted that 10 points will be enough to finish in the top 24, which guarantees you a play-off spot,

This means that Liverpool would need just seven points – two wins and a draw from their remaining seven matches to guarantee a play-off position.

However, we know the Reds will be aiming for the top eight and Sky Sports report that the Opta supercomputer believes 16 points would almost certainly be enough to achieve that.

Statistics platform Football Meets Data, suggests 15 points could even be enough to finish eighth.

And, while unlikely, 14 could just get you over the line depending on how results play out.

So, if we take 15 points as the target for Liverpool, they need to take just 12 points from these seven fixtures:

League Stage Dates

Matchday 2: Bologna (H) – Wednesday, October 2, 8pm

Matchday 3: Leipzig (A) – Wednesday, October 23, 8pm

Matchday 4: Bayer Leverkusen (H) – Tuesday, November 5, 8pm

Matchday 5: Real Madrid (H) – Wednesday, November 27, 8pm

Matchday 6: Girona (A) – Tuesday, December 10, 5.45pm

Matchday 7: Lille (H) – Tuesday, January 21, 8pm

Matchday 8: PSV (A) – Wednesday, January 29, 8pm