How good will Kentucky basketball be under Mark Pope in 2024-25? 5 measuring-stick games

LEXINGTON — It’s a new coach. But it’s the same narrative for Kentucky basketball.

The Wildcats are aiming for their first Final Four appearance since 2015. Once there, they hope to win their ninth national title — and their first since 2012.

To achieve one, or both, of those goals, UK will have to do that under the guidance of a first-year coach: Mark Pope, a member of the 1996 national championship team — a squad known as “The Untouchables” — now is at the helm of his alma mater. As difficult as winning a national title under a rookie coach may be, it’s not unprecedented.

Kentucky did just that during the 1997-98 campaign, when Tubby Smith led the program to national championship No. 7.

While Smith had multiple members of the 1997 national runner-up team on board for his first season, Pope has no such luck. He’s starting from scratch after every scholarship player from the 2023-24 team departed.

In their place, Pope brought in a highly regarded nine-man transfer class, two in-state superstars from the high school ranks (Trent Noah and Travis Perry) and a player who once had signed with him at BYU (Collin Chandler).

How quickly can the dozen newcomers jell together as they try to make a run in the NCAA Tournament?

These five games should help determine the worth of the Wildcats in Pope’s first season:

vs. Duke (9 p.m. Nov. 12 at State Farm Arena in Atlanta)

It’ll be “The Cooper Flagg Show” for Duke in this game — and every other time the Blue Devils lace up their sneakers this season. Considered one of the best prospects to enter high school basketball this millennium, the expectation is Flagg will be one and done in Durham, North Carolina, on his way to being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.

As talented as Flagg is, however, he’s far from alone in terms of potential NBA players dotting Duke’s 2024-25 roster.

Aside from Flagg, USA TODAY projects three more Blue Devils (guard/forward Isaiah Evans, guard Caleb Foster and center Khaman Maluach) will hear their name called in the first round of next year’s draft.

Preseason rankings from ESPN (No. 8), CBS Sports (No. 9) and Fox Sports (No. 9) project Duke as a top-10 squad entering the season, once again battling hated rival North Carolina for ACC supremacy.

What a statement it would be, then, if Pope, in only his third game as the Wildcats’ coach, finds a way to knock off the Blue Devils in a Champions Classic contest in Atlanta.

Aside from immediately injecting good vibes into a new club and notching a Quad 1 win early in the season, it would bring a smile to the faces of Kentucky fans who have seen Duke have its way in the series in recent decades.

The Wildcats will enter this season having dropped seven of their last nine meetings with the Blue Devils; UK holds a 12-11 advantage in the all-time series.

Of note: This will be UK’s first matchup with Duke in which Mike Krzyzewski isn’t on the opposing bench since an NCAA Mideast Regional semifinal game in Lexington on March 13, 1980. The Blue Devils’ coach that day: Bill Foster. Duke escaped with a 55-54 win over UK at Rupp Arena to advance to a regional final — the Elite Eight before it began being referred to as such — against Purdue.

vs. Gonzaga (Dec. 7 at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle)

It’s hard to describe how much this game will mean for Pope.

That’s because this will be a homecoming of sorts for him. He’s from Bellevue, Washington. His high school, Newport, is not even 12 miles from Climate Pledge Arena. Unquestionably, he’ll have countless friends and family members in the stands cheering him on.

Sentimental feelings aside, Pope also can win this one for a UK fan base that is tired of losing to Gonzaga.

This will be the third meeting in a six-game series the programs agreed to in 2022.

Kentucky has yet to taste victory.

The Bulldogs took a bite out of the Wildcats in 2022, rolling to an 88-72 win at Spokane Arena in Spokane, Washington. Then last season, Gonzaga rolled into Rupp Arena and handed UK an 89-85 loss — marking the first time Kentucky lost three straight home games since the venue opened in 1976.

A Kentucky win in this game likely would do wonders for its résumé once Selection Sunday arrives, as Gonzaga is expected to once again put a top-10 team on the court.

Nolan Hickman and Graham Ike, who starred in last season’s win, are back for the Bulldogs. So is Ryan Nembhard, who dished out a team-high 243 assists in 2023-24. Though Gonzaga lost Anton Watson from last season’s Sweet 16 squad, it brought in Michael Ajayi, who led the West Coast Conference in points per game (17.1) last season at Pepperdine.

Needless to say, the Wildcats will need to be at their best to best the Bulldogs in this neutral-site battle.

vs. Louisville (Dec. 14, Rupp Arena)

A rebuilding program. One that has combined for just 12 wins the past two seasons. Against a UK team that has won five of the past six meetings, and nine of the last 11?

Yeah, Kentucky should be favored to beat Louisville.

But make no mistake: The chasm that has existed between these programs, at least in terms of on-court ability, is smaller than it’s been in years. The Wildcats are the more talented team on paper, yes. But the 2024-25 edition isn’t filled to the brim with the can’t-miss NBA draft picks who held most of the roster spots under UK’s former coaching regime.

Playing at home, Kentucky should notch another victory over its in-state rival. Just don’t expect it to be like the 95-76 beatdown that took place last season at the KFC Yum! Center.

The only safe bet when the Wildcats and Cardinals take the floor this December: 3s will be attempted like they’re going out of style.

Pope’s players at BYU averaged 32 3-point shots per game last season, which ranked second among Division I teams. That’s one spot ahead of Kelsey’s club at College of Charleston, which hoisted 30.6 triples per game in 2023-24.

vs. Arkansas (Feb. 1, Rupp Arena)

Rarely, if ever, could a regular-season college basketball game be classified as a “must-win” for a first-year coach. But the meeting with Arkansas, for the sanity of the Kentucky fan base, must end in a victory for Pope and the Wildcats on Feb. 1.

Call it “The John Calipari Bowl.” Or give it another moniker.

Whatever the name, know the ticket prices for this contest will be through the roof.

Calipari has only been to Rupp Arena as a visiting head coach once. He walked away with a smile that day, as his UMass team cruised past Kentucky, 90-69, on Dec. 4, 1991. Beating the Wildcats is old hat for the Wildcats’ former coach: In six games against UK, Calipari owns a 4-2 record.

In a sense, this season’s Arkansas/Kentucky matchup provides a window into an alternate history: Arkansas in 2024-25 is what UK might have looked like if Calipari had stuck around for a 16th season in Lexington.

Three former Wildcats (Zvonimir Ivišić, Adou Thiero and D.J. Wagner) entered the transfer portal and joined the Razorbacks. Three 2024 recruits who once had committed to Kentucky — Boogie Fland, Karter Knox and Billy Richmond — still will play for Calipari at an SEC school. It just won’t be in the Bluegrass State.

Kentucky fans won’t let Calipari, or the rest of the former or almost-current Wildcats, forget that come the first of February.

vs. Tennessee (Feb. 11, Rupp Arena)

Louisville’s an in-state rivalry. Arkansas is a new rivalry, forged in the span of one offseason. Duke, Kansas and North Carolina are rivals on the sport’s grandest stage — a trio of college basketball’s most successful and high-profile programs.

Yet no rival has a longer history with UK than the school to the south, Tennessee.

The Wildcats have squared off with the Volunteers more than any other team. The schools have met 239 times, with Kentucky on top of the all-time series 161-78.

UK fans hope Pope can reestablish dominance in the rivalry.

Calipari won nine of his first 11 games against UT as Kentucky’s coach. But things changed once Rick Barnes arrived in Knoxville, Tennessee, prior to the 2015-16 season.

In the 21 meetings since Barnes’ debut season, the Volunteers own an 11-10 advantage in the rivalry.

They appear they’ll be another tough out in 2024-25 — even with SEC Player of the Year Dalton Knecht no longer scoring from all over the floor.

But Zakai Zeigler and Jordan Gainey are back. They plucked former North Florida star Chaz Lanier from the transfer portal. Three other transfers (Darlinstone Dubar of Hofstra, Igor Milicic Jr. of Charlotte and Felix Okpara of Ohio State) should contribute meaningful minutes. And Barnes, a master defensive tactician, will make it misery for opposing offenses, as per usual.

Pope picking up a win here is one more way to work into the good graces of the Wildcats’ passionate fan base.

Not to mention it would be a marquee triumph as it fights to win the SEC regular-season crown and position itself for a high seed in March Madness.

Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky basketball schedule: Mark Pope Year 1 shaped by these games