How Far Can the Best Bullpen in MLB Take the Guardians?

In case there was any doubt, the wild-card round of the 2024 MLB playoffs reminded everyone of the importance of having multiple relievers capable of getting key outs.

The Kansas City Royals swept the Orioles in Baltimore despite scoring only three runs in two games. How’d they manage that? Sure didn’t hurt that five Kansas City relievers combined to throw 7.2 scoreless innings, allowing just two hits and three walks while striking out eight.

The Detroit Tigers and San Diego Padres also had huge performances from deep bullpen units. 

Thing is, the team with the most dominating bullpen in baseball hasn’t played yet. From a traditional-statistics standpoint, Cleveland’s bullpen had a 2.57 ERA this year, by far the best in baseball; the Brewers were next at 3.11, and the Tigers had the AL’s second-best bullpen ERA at 3.53.

With advanced metrics, the same holds true.

Cleveland’s relievers posted an MLB-best raw value– of 79.8. RV+ measures contact, plate discipline and damage done upon contact with the league average being 100, while RV- measures pitchers’ ability to stymie those abilities.

So how impressive is that number? For some perspective, only the Atlanta Braves, Tigers and Minnesota Twins even posted RV- numbers better than 85.

“It’s really cool and special to be part of a bullpen that’s so good, but we’re not satisfied yet,” lefty Tim Herrin told Opta Analyst. “We want to be the best bullpen in the league throughout the whole season and in the postseason. There’s no let-up until the season’s over and we win a championship, hopefully. We just hope to be one part of what we have, as a great team, to help us win.”

Think about this: The Guardians had four relievers make at least 70 appearances with a sub-2.00 ERA, which is historically as incredible as it seems. No other team in baseball history has ever had four relievers hit those marks. Only one team – the 2003 Los Angeles Dodgers – even had three. Drop the threshold to “just” 60 appearances and there still had never been a team with four relievers with an ERA lower than a 2.00.

• Emmanuel Clase: 0.61 ERA, 74 games, 74.1 innings
• Hunter Gaddis: 1.57 ERA, 78 games, 74.2 innings
• Cade Smith: 1.91 ERA, 74 games, 75.1 innings
• Tim Herrin: 1.92 ERA, 75 games, 65.2 innings

“When you see your other guys doing good, I think mentally with the confidence, it helps you go out and do the same thing,” Gaddis said. “That plays a part everybody’s success.”

And it’s not just those four. 

Eli Morgan had a 1.92 ERA in 42 relief innings. Pedro Avila (3.25 ERA in 74.2 innings) and Nick Sandlin (3.75 ERA in 57.2 innings) were key pieces of the bullpen all season. And then you have rookies Erik Sabrowski and Andrew Walters, who were called up at the start of September and dominated, forcing their way into the October conversation. Neither allowed an earned run; Sabrowski, a lefty, struck out 19 in 12.2 innings and Walters, a right-hander, allowed just one hit in 8.2 innings. 

And we’ve barely even mentioned Clase, who just turned in one of the greatest seasons for a reliever in baseball history. In 74.1 innings, he allowed just five earned runs and two home runs, with 39 hits and two walks. His 0.61 ERA is the second lowest of the past 100 years for anyone who has thrown at least 74 innings.

He’s led the AL in saves each of the past three seasons: 42, 44 and 47 this year. Clase’s career regular-season ERA is now 1.45, through 318 appearances. He pitched 6.0 innings for Cleveland in the 2022 playoffs and allowed just one hit, with zero runs. 

“Oh man,” Gaddis said. “I don’t know if there’s even words to make it make sense, what he’s done. It’s been incredible to watch. It’s great to be on this side with him. Having him on our team is awesome.”

For manager Stephen Vogt – first-year manager Stephen Vogt, remember – giving Clase the ball in save situations was the easy part. But his mastery of the bullpen equation, figuring out how to get the best from his pitchers, has been very impressive to watch. 

“I think Vogt has done a really good job with me and other guys,” Herrin said, “just putting them in position to be successful with the best matchups.”

Gaddis, for example, had a 4.50 ERA and 5.26 FIP last year. This year, 1.57 and 2.82. Morgan dropped his ERA from 4.01 to 1.93. Smith is a rookie who had a 4.65 ERA in 30 appearances at Triple-A last season. 

Herrin had a 5.53 ERA and 3.87 FIP last year as a rookie in the big leagues, albeit in a small sample size (27.2 innings).

“It’s just attacking this track zone better, executing my pitches,” he said. “There hasn’t been a whole lot of adjustment to the actual pitches themselves. The usage is a little different and I’m really filling up the zone more. First-pitch strikes have been huge for me. But it’s about pitching with confidence and executing pitches.”

But hitters know the first-pitch strike is key, too. How do pitchers avoid getting lit up when the batters know the pitcher is likely to be in the zone to start the at-bat?

“For bullpen guys, it’s a little bit easier, because more times than not you’re going in for only one inning, so it’s easier to be not as predictable with what you’re going to do first pitch. Early in the year, you might throw a lot of first-pitch breaking balls to get ahead,” Herrin added. “As the year progressed, guys were cheating towards that so we’d mix in more first-pitch fastballs, sinkers, whatever, just to get ahead.

“It’s still executing, but not being too predictable. If the scouting report says I’m throwing 70-plus percent first-pitch of whatever pitch, that’ll be on the scouting report as you get through 162 games in season, so you’ve gotta be able to mix it up.”

Even though these relievers have different styles and different pitches, there is one thing that’s pretty similar with how they approach each pitch. 

“It’s been about being aggressive, always staying aggressive, never giving in and just showing up whenever your name is called,” Gaddis said. 

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