How chase rate factors into 2024 World Series

Plate discipline can (and often does) make all the difference come October. The 2024 National League postseason was a perfect example.

Earlier this month, the Phillies chased their way to an early exit in the NL Division Series against the Mets, while the Dodgers waited out New York’s pitching staff to great effect in the NL Championship Series. Philadelphia hitters walked just 16 times in four games, while L.A. drew 42 free passes in the six-game series.

The Phillies’ chase rate — the proportion of swings on pitches out of the strike zone — was 31.8%. The Dodgers’ chase rate in the NLCS? Just 20.7%, the lowest chase rate by any team in the LCS round since pitch tracking began in 2008.

Both the Dodgers and the Yankees — L.A.’s opponent in the 2024 World Series — have made their mark by laying off bad pitches. The Yankees led MLB in the regular season with a 24.6% chase rate, with the Dodgers tied for second at 25.7%. Patient hitters such as Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge and Max Muncy won’t usually get themselves out, so pitchers typically can’t rely on expanding the zone against them. Hitters who don’t chase can instead wait on an offering over the plate — then drive it out of the ballpark.

The discipline shown by both World Series participants adds another element to what should be a classic matchup between the top seed from each league. Here’s why tough at-bats will be a staple of the 2024 World Series — and which team might have the edge in that regard.

Obviously, it stands to reason that teams able to take out-of-zone pitches for balls will fare better in any game. But how strong is the correlation?

In the 2024 regular season, anyway, chase rate had a weak to moderate negative correlation with runs per game (r = -.389), meaning teams who chased less typically put more runs on the board. That wasn’t always the case, though: The Mariners, who had the fourth-lowest chase rate in 2024, weren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut.

Lowest chase rates, 2024 regular season
1. Yankees: 24.6%
2-T. Brewers: 25.7%
2-T. Dodgers: 25.7%
4. Mariners: 26.3%
5. D-backs: 26.4%

Both World Series teams have stepped things up in the postseason, too. In the pitch tracking era, 71 teams have seen at least 500 out-of-zone pitches in one postseason, and this year’s Yankees and Dodgers own the fourth and seventh lowest chase rates, respectively, among that group. (Those two franchises are very well represented at the top of the leaderboard.)

Lowest chase rate, single postseason (2008-present)
Min. 500 out-of-zone pitches seen
1. Yankees (2020): 22.9%
2. Dodgers (2020): 24.2%
3. Dodgers (2017): 24.3%
4. Yankees (2024): 24.4% (175 swings / 716 out-of-zone pitches)
5-T. Dodgers (2008): 24.5%
5-T. Red Sox (2008): 24.5%
7. Dodgers (2024): 25.1% (224 swings / 893 out-of-zone pitches)

As for which players specifically are fueling the Yankees’ and Dodgers’ success, let’s look at who has had the best (and worst) batting eye among World Series hitters in 2024.

It starts with Soto. Naturally.

The star who celebrates his 26th birthday on Friday, the day of Game 1 of the Fall Classic, doesn’t have a .421 career on-base percentage by accident. Not only did Soto’s 18.1% walk rate rank second among qualified hitters in 2024 (behind only Judge, at 18.9%), but the young outfielder lays off balls at an outstanding rate. In the regular season, Soto swung at just 18.3% of pitches outside of the strike zone, second best of the 125 hitters who saw 1,000 or more out-of-zone pitches in the regular season. (The Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen was first at 17.2%.) Fourth on the list with an 18.7% chase rate? None other than Judge.

Here’s where the other Yankees and Dodgers in that group of 125 players ranked:
9. Mookie Betts (LAD): 21.1%
11. Gleyber Torres (NYY): 21.4%
43-T. Alex Verdugo (NYY): 25.6%
52-T. Will Smith (LAD): 26.3%
56-T. Freddie Freeman (LAD): 26.6%
56-T. Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 26.6%
71-T. Teoscar Hernández (LAD): 28.7%
76. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY): 29.2%
77. Anthony Volpe (NYY): 29.3%

Although Volpe was lowest on that list, he has turned things around considerably in the postseason. The second-year shortstop has swung at just eight of the 85 out-of-zone pitches he’s seen, the lowest chase rate among players who have seen 50 or more such pitches this postseason. Betts is third on the postseason list, while Muncy — who walked 11 times in the NLCS and broke a single-postseason record by reaching base in 12 consecutive plate appearances — was fourth.

Other players to watch: Newly minted ALCS MVP Giancarlo Stanton chased at a hefty 31.0% clip during the regular season, which ranked in the 30th percentile of MLB — a fair bit below average. Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo was in the 17th percentile, but catcher Austin Wells (25.5% chase rate, 70th percentile) fared better. For the Dodgers, infielder Gavin Lux landed in the 85th percentile, chasing at just a 23.1% clip.

While chase rate can be an important metric, it doesn’t tell the whole story in terms of evaluating plate discipline. Looking at walk rates can help: While perhaps unsurprisingly, the five teams with the lowest chase rates also have the five highest walk rates in MLB, there’s considerable variance when it comes to individual players.

Although Judge and Soto still lead the way — they powered the Yankees’ Major League-leading 10.8% walk rate in 2024 — both Freeman and Ohtani walk far more often than their slightly above-average chase rates might indicate. Out of 129 qualifying hitters, Freeman’s 12.2% walk rate in the regular season is tied for seventh in MLB, while Ohtani is tied for 19th.

Again the low man on the list among World Series hitters with a 6.1% walk rate in the regular season, Volpe has flipped the script with eight walks in 37 postseason plate appearances — the second-highest walk rate in the 2024 playoffs (min. 30 PA). The Yankees (13.9%) are the top team in terms of postseason walk rate as well, with the Dodgers second at 12.6%.

Grinding out at-bats and forcing opposing hurlers to throw more pitches is another successful strategy. Volpe has averaged an impressive 4.70 pitches seen per plate appearance in the playoffs, easily the most for hitters with 30+ postseason PA in 2024. He was part of a Yankees team that saw the third-most pitches per PA in the regular season (4.00), with Torres (4.24), Soto (4.15) and Judge (4.10) leading the team. For the Dodgers, who were fifth in MLB with 3.96 pitches per plate appearance, Smith led the way at 4.17 pitches per PA. Ohtani, typically a more aggressive hitter, averaged 3.88 — tied for 67th among 129 qualifying batters.

Based on the numbers, the Yankees have been the better team — although not by a wide margin — in the plate discipline department. Not only have they had MLB’s best chase rate in the regular season and in the postseason, but they’ve seen more pitches and worked more walks as well.

But the Dodgers appear locked in. They were hardly fooled by a tough Mets pitching staff, and with Ohtani, Betts and Freeman at the top of the order, they have the infrastructure to make any opponent wary.

Whichever team can best refrain from chasing, see plenty of pitches and work walks might just have a crucial edge in what promises to be an entertaining Fall Classic.